Latest dynasty outlook of Carson Wentz

By: Emerson Beery

Carson Wentz was traded to the Washington Commanders this past week, where he will look to rebound with his third franchise in as many seasons. He’s coming off a year in which he threw for 3,563 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Wentz not only managed to cut his interceptions by more than half, 15-7 but also to improve his QBR to the top 10 in the league.  After a slow start to the season, the Indianapolis Colts managed to go 9-3 in a 12 game stretch prior to the final 2 games of the season. 

Securing just one win in those two games would have given the Colts a playoff berth. However, unfortunately for the Colts, they blew a 4th quarter lead against the Raiders, followed by a total collapse against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Carson Wentz himself managed just 185 yards passing, a touchdown, and two costly turnovers as the Colts were blown out 26-11. This appeared to be the final straw for the Colts, who decided to move on after just one season from the former MVP candidate. In this article I will give reasons why you should be optimistic about Carson Wentz, why you should be hesitant, and a final outlook for his 2022 season and dynasty value. 

Carson Wentz: The Good

Wentz was drafted with the #2 overall pick in the 2016 draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. He was a highly regarded prospect who was thought to have all the physical tools, be accurate, and have dual-threat upside. His only widely perceived knocks were the lack of completion he faced in college, and his tendency to be careless with football. Wentz has flashed this potential in the NFL being highly accurate at times while extending plays with his legs. This culminated in 2017, where prior to his late-season injury, was the odds on favorite to win the MVP. Unfortunately, since the injury, Wentz simply has not performed anywhere close to this level since. 

Despite being let go by his 2nd team this off-season, it wasn’t all bad for Wentz. He was able to cut down on his interceptions and posted an above-average QBR of 54.7. Prior to the Raider game in Week 17, the Carson Wentz signing was viewed by many as a success. Wentz wasn’t being asked to carry the team as the Colts focused on getting the football to Jonathan Taylor. He minimized his turnovers and was able to make some timely throws when given the opportunity. 

A game manager who has the capability of making the occasional big play is likely the best role for Carson Wentz moving forward with the Washington Commanders. He has an alpha WR in Terry Mclaurin, as well as an RB in Antonio Gibson capable of carrying a heavy workload. The Commanders will likely look to add an additional offensive weapon early in the draft to help Wentz’s transition. Additionally, Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas provide solid secondary options as they will look to be a more prolific offense in the 2022 season.

Carson Wentz: The Bad

Carson Wentz improved in the 2021 season, but that was just from an absolutely disastrous 2020 season. He still had 15 turnovers, and many of those came in absolutely critical moments of the game. He was 18th in passing yards, 16th in passing attempts, and 20th in yards per attempt. He has been sacked 82 times the past 2 seasons, good for second in the league behind Joe Burrow. He tries to overextend plays far too often rather than simply throw the ball away. This often leads to either a sack or a turnover, which eventually cost the Colts a playoff appearance. 

He simply was average in 2021, not being asked to do a lot behind the league’s best running back. At this stage of his career Wentz is not a prolific passer, and on his best day, is an effective game manager. The offense of the Washington Commanders certainly isn’t a major upgrade to the Indianapolis Colts offense. Mclaurin is a better receiver than Michael Pittman, but Antonio Gibson is nowhere near Jonathan Taylor in terms of skill. He simply won’t be able to hand it off to Antonio Gibson 25 times a game and expect similar results. When Wentz is asked to do more, he makes more mistakes. 

Most alarming are the reports out of The Athletic shedding some light on Wentz’s departure from the Colts. These reports suggest that Wentz wasn’t particularly liked by the coaching staff or his fellow players. He resisted “hard” coaching from the staff, which coupled with his turnover-prone style of play, wore the patience of the Indianapolis Colts management. These are nearly identical findings to the reports that surfaced from the Philadelphia Eagles prior to Wentz’s departure. He was also considered to be hard to coach and a poor teammate. Oftentimes players don’t mesh well with a particular locker room, but these reports from two different franchises are damning. 

The Verdict

Carson Wentz is playing with his 3rd franchise in three seasons. The Eagles and Colts invested heavily in Wentz, they had every reason to make it work, but they let him go anyway. Wentz is attractive on the market because sometimes he makes plays that simply only the best QBs in the league can make. When he is on the open field he can get upfield quickly for rushing yards which we love as fantasy managers. Sadly, these plays are too few and far between, and what you get is a highly erratic style of play. Wentz is a low-end QB2 for fantasy purposes and an average NFL QB. He has more arm talent than Taylor Heineke, which should slightly boost the value of Terry Mclaurin. 

Wentz’s play would suggest he could be a journeyman QB, changing teams every couple of seasons, as there aren’t likely to be 32 better NFL quarterbacks. However,  with a game manager QB, you expect them to be leaders in the locker room and be able to rise to the occasion in clutch situations. Carson Wentz on the other hand has shown consistently to be a locker room problem and makes his biggest mistakes in the biggest moments. In fantasy leagues, Wentz can be ignored in 1QB formats as he doesn’t possess enough upside to start other than in an emergency. In Superflex leagues, he can be treated as a low-end Superflex, who’s likely in his final year or two as a starting quarterback.