Who is the top RB sleeper in dynasty?
By: Emerson Beery
Fantasy football managers have always had a love, hate relationship with their running backs. On one hand, they can absolutely be the most important part of your championship team, but on the other hand, it is the most volatile and injury-prone position available.
Fantasy owners are in a constant scramble to fill in for bye weeks, and injuries which can be the difference in making the playoffs or not in your league. In this article, I will highlight sleepers, outside of the consensus top 30 running backs drafted, who could provide upside going into the 2022 campaign. These are great running backs to draft to back up your top-tier starters, or if you’re taking a zero RB approach and looking for some later-round players with upside.
James Robinson
James Robinson has been one of the more amazing stories in the NFL and fantasy over the last couple of seasons. He went from UDFA to fantasy stud in 2020. He accounted for over 1400 all-purpose yards, and 10 touchdowns on his way to an RB7 finish. After creating high expectations, his 2021 season did not go as expected, however. Robinson was a part of the Urban Meyer disaster, was inexplicably benched multiple times throughout the year, and ultimately tore his Achilles in Week 16 versus the New York Jets.
This was not what fantasy managers foresaw after Travis Etienne went out for the season with a Lisfranc injury over the Summer. After a dip in value as a result of Etienne being drafted, James Robinson vaulted back up fantasy managers rankings after the injury news.
Ultimately, after a hot start to the season, however, and four straight RB1 finishes from Weeks 3-6, Robinson struggled with consistency. This was due to minor injuries, and landing in Urban Meyer’s doghouse midway through the year. His snap percentage only reached over 65% one time week eight onward. He eventually landed on IR with his torn Achilles. Why am I buying at his current dynasty value? I’m willing to throw away the whole last year for the Jaguars as Urban Meyer was one of the worst coaches in NFL history. Each report highlighted a coach that was completely out of his depth and one that was toxic to the locker room. Every Jaguars player deserves a pass for last year, as they couldn’t have been put in a worse position to succeed.
James Robinson’s ADP is also low because of the risk his Achilles tear poses to his 2022 season and the assumption that Etienne will be the lead back. Cam Akers, George Pickens, and other athletes have amazed us with their quick return to the field in recent years. I believe this is becoming more the norm than an anomaly, and I Expect to see James Robinson on the field early in the 2022 season. When he does return, he will still at worst be a heavily involved second RB like Kareem Hunt. We have yet to see Etienne in NFL action though, and there is still a path toward becoming a starter again for the Jaguars. His ADP as a mid-tier RB3 according to most sites is very cheap for a running back of his caliber.
James Conner
It’s hard to be called a sleeper when you just had a top 5 fantasy season for a running back. However, Conner is just that in dynasty leagues with an ADP ranging between RB30-39 according to most sites. I expect this to rise as most of the ADP data has not been updated since his re-signed with the Cardinals. Still, his dynasty value will be hampered by his age (26), and his injury history. Thus creating a buy point for managers despite his breakout season with the Cardinals. Conner was the featured RedZone back throughout the year, amassing 18 total touchdowns. He also showed his receiving ability averaging 4.8 receptions for 53.8 yards in weeks that Chase Edmonds missed due to injury. With Edmonds no longer in the picture, Conner figures to be the bell cow of a high-powered Arizona offense.
When drafting RBs early I look at attributes like age, injury history, and overall talent. Running backs that hit on all these marks are taken ate a premium, and rightfully so as so few meet this criterion. Where Conner is being drafted every running back has significant flaws due to one thing or another. Conner is slightly older and has missed 14 games over the last four seasons due to injury. All these concerns are baked into his cost though as a middling RB3. If I’m a competing dynasty team in 2022, I’m exploring buying Conner at his current cost, particularly from young rebuilding teams that view him as a declining asset. His price is only likely to go up over the Summer so buy now if you have the opportunity.
Chris Carson
Chris Carson has been amazing since taking over the lead Running Back duties for the Seahawks back in 2018. He has compiled three straight top 20 finishes for a back. Additionally, he has averaged over 4.4 yards per carry each of the last 4 years and is still just 27 years old. Carson’s inability to stay on the field however has led to a major dip in his dynasty ranking. Carson finds himself ranked as an RB4 according to most experts, ranked behind the likes of Kahlil Herbert, Chuba Hubbard, and fellow teammate Rashad Penny. Chris Carson’s fantasy ranking suggests that people believe he is going to retire, or that he is the clear #2 back to Rashad Penny. I don’t believe either to be the case and expect Carson to be a large part of this offense.
First, off-season reports suggest that Carson is rehabbing nicely and that he should be back for Summer workouts. This is great news as many feared a serious neck injury was going to put his career in jeopardy. Addressing the second concern, I believe that the fantasy community is coming under a little recency bias due to Penny’s late-season fantasy surge. He was the RB1 over the course of the final five weeks of the season and was the reason many fantasy owners won their championship. Penny scored nearly half of his career fantasy points in the final five weeks of the season. This is mainly due to the fact that Penny has missed 26 games in the last three seasons. Even when healthy, Penny has operated as the clear second back behind Carson. Penny is often injured and has been inconsistent his first four seasons in the NFL. This will provide Carson plenty of opportunities to overtake Penny in Seattle’s backfield. At RB44, Carson is basically free and is far too cheap for a potential starting Running back.
