Latest dynasty outlook for Amari Cooper

By: Doug Ludemann

The Cowboys sent the fantasy football community into a tizzy earlier this month when they traded veteran wide receiver Amari Cooper to the Cleveland Browns. The Cooper trade was largely seen as a cost-saving measure but is just as likely to have had more to do with the emergence of CeeDee Lamb who supplanted Cooper as the top receiving option for Dallas in 2021. The question at this point, is how does the move impact Cooper’s dynasty stock moving forward?

The primary concern seems to be the philosophy of the Browns rushing-intensive offense. Cooper is exiting a Cowboys offense that has averaged about 643 passes over the past two seasons and joining a team that has averaged only about 510. To make matters worse, in 2021, only five teams had a higher percentage of run plays in their offense than the Browns. It’s notable that Cleveland’s offense was around the league average in rush attempts per total offensive plays in 2019 prior to Stefanski’s arrival.

If you look at head coach Kevin Stefanski’s 2019 offense in Minnesota when he served as the Vikings offensive coordinator, that team ran the ball at an even higher rate than Stefanski’s 2020-21 Browns offenses and attempted only 520 passes. Stefanski’s 2019 Vikings offense was also in the bottom third of the league in terms of total passing yards.

This implies that in the Browns’ offense, Cooper’s target total is likely to drop in 2022, even with the addition of quarterback Deshaun Watson, whose 2020 Houston Texans offense put up an impressive 4538 passing yards on their opponents with a league-leading 7.6 net yards per passing attempt.

If Cooper is to maintain his fantasy value, he will have to match or exceed Brandin Cook’s 22% target share that the receiver earned as Watson’s top target in 2020. However, even if Cooper can maintain that degree of target share, it’s unlikely the Browns offense will be as pass-heavy as either his or Watson’s previous teams, making it likely that the receiver takes a step back in both targets and receiving yards in 2022.

So, given the uncertainties regarding his new offense, you’re best to expect a lower fantasy output for the coming season, with fewer targets and receiving yards. Thus, I’m currently projecting 65 receptions on 95 targets for 815 yards and 6 TDs on the season, which is probably good enough for a mid-tier WR3 with a high floor.