Welcome to week 4, our last week of football before we start to get into bye weeks. With a full slate of 12 games on the main slate we have plenty to choose from in both tournament and cash plays. There is now three weeks of data and we are starting to really grasp players roles, and tendencies of teams. Let’s take a look at the players with the matchups we want to take advantage of. (Prices are based off DraftKings)
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow $6,500
Burrow comes in with his best matchup of the season. The Titans having given up 300 yards through the air in 2 out 3 games this year, and Burrow is coming off a 49 attempt game. With the running game struggling against one of the best run defenses in the league, this will be the game the Cincinnati offense gets going.
Justin Herbert $7,800
The Chargers run game has been nearly nonexistent this season without Austin Ekeler, and Herbert has responded well. The number one scoring QB this season, throwing the ball over 40 times the past two games, the volume is there for him every week. There’s a chance the get the run game going against the Raiders today, but if they don’t, Herbert will be worth paying up for.
Bryce Young $5,200
Coming back from an ankle injury, Bryce Young is presented with his best matchup of his young career. Miles Sanders is coming in with a Q tag and will likely be limited giving Young plenty of opportunity to throw and run a little more. The Vikings come in giving up 27.3 points per game this year, if Young can capitalize he will be the top value play on the slate.
Justin Fields $6,600
One last chance, plain and simple. Everyone is going to be off Fields this week, and for good reason, but we just watched the Denver defense give up 350 yards on the ground. The Broncos are traditionally a man team and I feel like Fields is going to have a ton of lanes to run. I can see Fields getting in end zone at least once, opening up a Mooney big play TD.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams $5,500
The last thing the Broncos want on the field this week is their defense. I expect Williams to touch the ball for over 20 times for the first time this year. With that opportunity against a Bears defense that gave up 150 yards last week and over 4 yards per carry to the Chiefs, we could see a 100 yard game with a TD.
Kyren Williams $6,000
The unquestioned workhorse of this backfield, Williams should be in line for 20 plus touches against a Colts defense that is giving up over 114 yards on the ground this year. You are chasing the opportunity here, and if game script goes well for LA, Williams should have a 100 yards potential game with some red zone usage.
Joshua Kelley $5,300
Just like with Justin Fields, this is the last chance for Joshua Kelley. If Ekeler misses this game, Kelley will go up against the Raiders defense that will likely be on the field for most of this game. With Garoppolo out for this game, the Chargers have a chance to run away with this game putting Kelley in great position to handle 20 carries today. If he hits a big run for a TD, he could sneakily have some top 3 potential.
Christian McCaffrey $9,200 Elijah Mitchell $4,600
McCaffrey is the most expensive running back for a reason. Hands down the most consistent running back that has scored a touchdown in every game of his 49ers career. There’s not much to say, he’s amazing, but could he be out of the game by the second half due to being up big? I could see Elijah Mitchell coming in and having a huge day in relief. If you are looking to pay up at other positions. Mitchell could end up in the end zone twice today in garbage time and result in a great return on his price.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase $7,800 Tee Higgins $6,800
Just like with Joe Burrow earlier, I’m all in on the Bengals passing game this week. The Titans are one of the best run defenses in the league, but contrarily, they can’t stop anyone in the air. I imagine Chase and Higgins each having double digit targets today and will not let you down. The Titans have given up a 100 yard receiver in every game this year and they will likely give up two today.
Elijah Moore $4,700
Last week Moore had 9 catches last week and 3 carries, while he was wildly ineffective last week, this week he will turn those touches into a big play. Moore is a great value play as you will not find a lot of WR with as many touches at that price. Chase the volume here.
Adam Thielen $4,500
Revenge game on tap for Adam Thielen. While he didn’t have a bad departure from Minnesota, you have to imagine it would feel good to have a great game against his former team. Another great value play coming off 14 targets last week, I would imagine he’s closer to 10 targets today, but he’s the number one red zone option for this offense with a red zone TD in two straight games.
A.J. Brown $7,700
Two weeks ago Brown was seen frustrated on the sideline for his lack of involvement. Last week Brown dropped a TD and was fed 14 targets. I don’t think we get a repeat of 14 targets, but a highly efficient 10 could be on tap. I imagine Jalen Hurts wants to get Brown that first TD of the season today at home.
Nico Collins $5,100
Tank Dell will be a very popular pick after the huge breakout game last week. This week, Stroud will need to lean on his top possession receiver as the Steelers front is crashing the gates. Collins should see double digit targets today and any time they are in the red zone, they are looking his way.
Marvin Mims Jr. $3,900
One of the better value plays on the board, Mims has received more and more opportunities every week. A big TD catch waiting to happen, he will have his chances in a potential redemption game for the Broncos today. Five targets last week, rushing attempts in the last two weeks, and the return man, Mims will have the ball in his hands enough to warrant this price for me.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett $3,600
One of the potential players that could see an increase in targets with Mike Williams going down last week, Everett could see some of that red zone work that went to Parham Jr. One trip to the end zone gives you a solid return on Everett’s price.
Logan Thomas $3,100
Linebackers are the biggest weakness for the Eagles defense. They don’t cover very well and typically can be had across the middle of the field. If Sam Howell can have any time to throw, Thomas should see close to double digit targets as he’s already established himself as a favorite target for Howell.
Pat Freiermuth $3,400
There’s a chance this game is a low scoring defensive affair, and if that’s the case, we could finally see Pat Freiermuth finally get some volume as they try to get the ball out of Kenny Pickett’s hands quickly.
Defenses
Philadelphia Eagles $4,100
The Eagles defense has looked better each week, and this week they get a young QB on the road that just scored 3 points last week. This could look like the Cowboys defense in week 1.
Baltimore Ravens $3,200
With Deshaun Watson banged up there’s a chance he doesn’t make it through the whole game, meaning the Ravens could be facing the Dorian Thompson-Robinson at some point in this game. Big turnover potential today for this defense, even if Watson plays the whole game.
Pittsburgh Steelers $3,900
T.J. Watt against a rookie QB and a poor offensive line. That’s all you need. 13 sacks in 3 games, this defense will travel well.
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