Which Dynasty assets will skyrocket in value in the next 8 weeks?

Two WRs, a RB, and a QB to buy in dynasty

By: Zach Hurts

Who here values talent, opportunity, and good situations? I have a few people that I view as values right now with all the stars are aligning for them. This is what I call a buy window. A buy window is a moment in time that allows you to trade for a player at their current price and reap the benefits when they breakout and skyrocket in value. There are a few players that I have been watching during the NFL and college that just seem poised for a big season in the NFL this year and beyond. 

First up is Jerry Jeudy! This man is one of the best route runners in the NFL and I don’t say that about very many players. I want to break Jerry Jeudy’s rookie season down for you he had 52 receptions for 856 yards and 3 touchdowns. A very solid rookie season at face value. However, let’s take a look at some advanced metrics. Jeudy had 26 uncatchable targets last season which happened to lead the NFL. If you want a percentage that is nearly 25% of his targets were uncatchable. Now I know that Jerry Jeudy struggled with some drops last year and that is a small cause for concern. Teddy Bridgewater should change the inaccuracy problems with the Bronco’s QBs last year. Bridgewater finished 5th in completion percentage last season. Jeudy will be Teddy’s #1 WR and is on his way to being an elite option at the WR position. 

This WR has been shadowed by Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.  Terrace Marshall is going to burst onto the scene this year. He is 6’3’’ 205 and a physical freak. When Marshall was at LSU without Chase and Jefferson due to Chase opting out Marshall commanded 28% of the receptions 33% of the team yards and 59% of their receiving touchdowns. 59% percent of the receiving TD’s is extremely impressive and with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson not being big red zone threats Marshall fits perfectly. When he was the #1 on his team he balled out and we will see that translate to the NFL similar to Justin Jefferson’s transition. He is on a similar offensive scheme to LSU he will start as the WR3 but will have the opportunity to surpass Anderson and be a top 2 receiving option on this team. He is very underpriced in dynasty and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to send offers out on him. 

Similar to Jerry Jeudy this RB hails from the Alabama regime. Damien Harris ever since he has entered this league he has been an undervalued asset. In his rookie season unfortunately he sat on the bench all year and was not used heavily. Last season he was used in more of a starting RB towards the latter half of the year. He averaged over 5 YPC (Yards Per Carry) which is one of the better YPC in the NFL tied for 6th among RB’s. Last year Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel were involved in the run scheme and now they are both on different teams. Damien Harris will have most of the carries in this offense and will break 1000 yards on the ground this season barring injury. Cam Newton also took a large number of rushing TD’s last year making Harris’s TD upside limited. Harris is still being undervalued even with the backfield clearing up. He has little competition and could very likely see a three-down role. 

The last player on this list is a lean mean rushing machine that can also throw a deep ball with perfection. It’s not Russell Wilson, but It’s Jalen Hurts. Hurts was a beast in college who played very well in Alabama except for his first National Championship appearance which ended up losing him his job. He then came into the national championship the following year and led them to a victory. He transferred after he wasn’t the starter. He played lights out in Oklahoma and was second in the Heisman race behind Joe Burrow. This is very unmentioned. He had low accuracy in year one largely because his receiving core was bad.: Greg Ward, Alshon Jeffery, and Dallas Godert. His weapons are already drastically better. He was a beast on the ground having “12 rush attempts per game”. Hurts should continue to be effective. Outside of a new receiving core this year, he has had a whole year of training camp and preseason to develop and adjust to the speed of the NFL. He has the potential to be a top 5 QB in fantasy for several years to come but for some reason, he gets no respect. People love him in redraft but he will be a franchise QB, not just a 1 year transitional QB.

Overall all of these players have a lot of talent and have an immense opportunity to breakout. You want to buy them before the breakout happens. I am confident that all of these players have the situation, the opportunity, the talent to change their startup value by several rounds. As I always say send trades because Dynasty Never Rests!

Dynasty: 3 Sleeper WRs to buy

Buy Darnell Mooney NOW

By: Marcel Boudreau (@Marcel_BFF)

In order to get an upper hand on your opponents, it is important to buy values wherever you can. This article serves a purpose to highlight 3 wide receivers that have an opportunity to become fantasy relevant this season and moving forward. There were a lot of “sleeper” wide receivers that could have been on this list, but their managers are likely reluctant to let them go. Players such as Bryan Edwards and Marquez Callaway have been getting a lot of hype and would be easy to put on this list, but their managers will likely be asking for too much in return. Below is a list of three wide receivers that you can buy at a discount that have the potential to return great value.

Parris Campbell

Although he sits between WR64 and WR66 in dynasty Superflex start-ups, for leagues who have been established for over two years, the fantasy manager of Parris Campbell has likely been extremely frustrated with him on their bench or IR (injury reserve) due to his plethora of injuries beginning in week 3 of his rookie season that’s only allowed him to play in 9 of 32 games. So why should you go after Campbell? 

“Players are injury-prone until they’re not” – Jason Moore of The Fantasy Footballers

I have investigated the timeline and types of injuries that have happened to Campbell. They are very “freak” accidents and mostly un-related leading to a lower re-injury rate than most would expect. Aside from those injuries, were the timelines in which they happened, and without using my physiotherapy degree to go into too much more detail, Parris Campbell is the healthiest he has been since Week 3 of 2018. 

How about Parris Campbell the player? This is a guy who has 4.31 speed (faster than Tyreek) at 6 feet tall and 205lbs. That combination with above-average route running abilities and 66% catch rate (on passes from Philip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett) is something special. He was drafted in the second round and can play both the slot and on the outside. The Colts made it a point of emphasis to get the ball in his hands last year by targeting him 9 times for 6 receptions and 71 yards in week 1 before spraining his knee early in week 2 forcing him to miss the rest of last year. From the media buzz, it appears like Campbell and Pittman will be the starting receivers in 2 WR sets, and Hilton will come in for 3-WR sets, which means plenty of snaps to match what we saw last year being on the field for 83% of offensive snaps. 

Darnell Mooney

Mooney will not be the cheapest of buys, but when combining his rookie season on-field metrics with hopeful better QB play going forward, Darnell Mooney just might be a diamond in the rough. This is a team that after only 2 regular seasons games, decided to shift Anthony Miller’s target to Mooney, and coming out of their week 11 Bye, Mooney has become the clear-cut WR2 on this team, demanding 8 targets a game over the last 6 weeks. Mooney never had a “shiny” box score game, which helps disguise his true value, as he never once topped 100 yds, or had a multiple touchdown game.

The main reason Mooney failed to have explosion-type games was due to QB play. He was targeted the 11th most in the league deep down the field and was 10th in unrealized air yards, which is a clear indication that the team trusts him on these high-value fantasy targets, but when checking the film, he was vastly under or over-thrown on these deep targets. Being completely transparent with Mooney, he could have had better success on some catches, but this was a rookie who never had the chance to build chemistry with his QBs as the team continued to flip flop the starter between Foles and Trubisky. Yes, Andy Dalton is set to start week 1, but once the QB shift to Justin Fields happens, we are going to see the offense settle into a rhythm, which was barely established last season. 

Mooney has sub-4.40 speed and is a crisp route runner. Justin Fields has the arm strength, talent, and pocket escapability to extend plays and make monster gains downfield. It’s a pairing that will grow together over the next couple of seasons, which may I mention that Allan Robinson may be out the door after this season, leaving Mooney at the top of the WR depth chart. Yes, they are likely to bring someone in, but that newcomer will not have the established chemistry that Mooney and Fields will be building. Mooney is currently being drafted as the WR50 (118th overall – 10.10), and with a concentrated passing attack from the Bear’s, he’s not only going to pay off in re-draft, but he’s going to make a lot of dynasty manager happy they acquired him before the breakout. 

Josh Palmer

There are many reasons to want Josh Palmer on your dynasty roster. Over the next 4 seasons, two things will remain true: He will be connected to a stud young QB in Justin Herbert, and he will never face the opposing top corner as Keenan Allen is under contract until 2025. Another fact is that former first-round pick Mike Williams, the current WR2 on the roster, is likely not returning to the Chargers following this season. 

Josh Palmer’s athletic metrics are less than exciting, but he’s a very good route runner who was never fortunate enough to have a great QB throw him the ball. That will all change in LA. Palmer’s ability to get open and secure catches all over the field and through traffic is something that will draw the attention of Herbert as the year progresses. This is also a team that has made little investments in the tight end position, hopefully leaving more of the market share in favor of the receivers. Austin Ekeler is not going anywhere, and between him and Keenan Allen, they will hog around 45% of the targets, but that is more than okay as their talent will draw a lot of attention off Palmer, leaving him with more single coverages and increased target efficiency. 

Josh Palmer was drafted in the middle-to-late third round in rookie drafts this summer, which is a steal of its own, but you can attempt to use this leverage to either buy him cheap, or you can swap him with an aging player that may carry name value such as AJ Green and T.Y Hilton who the opposing manager may believe have better chances at 2021 production. 

Conclusion

This article was not written in the sense of broking your team’s bank to get these players but is to highlight some players that are going undervalued in drafts for what their ceilings and futures could be. Stats and data were provided by, playerprofiler.com, sleeper.app, sportsreference.com, 4for4.com. Thanks for reading!

Three QBs Over 30 to Buy in Superflex Dynasty Leagues

Derek Carr Is a Must Buy

By: Marcel Boudreau

Winning a dynasty fantasy football league, like any fantasy football league, is often achieved by getting players at a value, whether that value be in terms of upside, or stability. This article is biasing Superflex (SF) Dynasty, and highlights three quarterbacks (QBs), all over the age of 30, in which are still being undervalued in the fantasy community, in which you are able to acquire for less than they are worth. Why over the age of 30? Because so many dynasty owners overreact to age and will quickly dump a player nearing the end of their prime, for an unproven young player or future draft picks. 

Ryan Tannehill 

32y.o 

2020 🡪 QB8 

Passing: 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 3819 yards 

Rushing: 7 TDs, 266 yards 

Dynasty SF Value = two 1.04-1.08 draft picks

Dynasty price tag = 1.05 + 2.06-2.12

We were all very suspicious if Tannehill’s second half 2019 season heroics were going to be fluke. 

We were all weary that the passing volume, and opportunity for Tannehill to put up fantasy production would be capped due to the nature of this run heavy offense. 

If the 4-year $118 million extension was not enough to sway us, his 2020 season should be enough proof to make us purchase Tannehill. Below is a list of Pros and Cons.

Cons:

  • 36 Deep Pass Attempts (26th) 🡪 Deep Ball completion % of 33.3% (27th)
    • Minimal big plays limiting his upside in the passing game
  • Protected Rate (24th)
    • Opposing teams could easily get to him.
  • 31.8 pass plays per game (30th)
    • Low volume, less opportunity
  • 23rd in Accuracy Rating 
  • Play Action Completion % of 59.6% (33rd
    • Playing for a run-heavy team, he needs to make these throws count. 

Pros:

  • 12th in Rush Yards and 7 Rushing TDs (4th)
    • Easy fantasy points, higher floor
  • 2nd in true passer rating
  • 3rd in true completion %
  • 5th in catchable pass rate
  • 2nd in fantasy points per drop back.

The narrative that the offense runs through Derrick Henry (quite literally) is true. But Tannehill continues to prove he can co-exist with Henry and be extremely fantasy relevant. Tannehill did all of this, while being on the team with potentially the most COVID issues. He proved he could do it before, as he was the QB 8 back in 2014 with Miami, and he has now proven he can continue to do.

The big question would be if Tannehill is better with or without Henry. The answer is hard to project, but I would assume the similar fantasy outputs. He would go up in volume but decrease in efficiency; Tannehill did score 23 fantasy points in his one game without Henry (vs. 2019 Saints), small sample size, but he was stellar in that game, so he can be trusted regardless how long Henry is on this team.

Matthew Stafford 

33y.o

2020 🡪 QB15 (missed ~1 game)

Passing: 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 4084 yards

Dynasty SF Value = two 1.05-1.10 draft picks

Dynasty price tag = 1.08 + 2.06-2.12

Matthew Stafford began his career playing 13 games in his first two season… since then? He has been a Top 10 QB in six of nine healthy seasons, and top 15 in eight of nine healthy seasons, with one season (2019) only playing eight games. 

How about this season? We need to recognize that he was extremely beat up, had no O-line, and his best receiver was Marvin Jones. Yes, Jones is a great WR, but he’s not an elite WR. His second-best weapon was a toss-up between Hockenson and Swift, but Matt Patricia was doing his best not to play Swift early and went with Adrian Peterson to try and have a decent start to the season knowing his job was in Jeopardy. 

Matthew Stafford, if you haven’t heard, is a Los Angeles Ram. What does this mean? 

Rams have passed more than 35 times per game on average since the start of 2018.

That would be 560+ pass attempts from Stafford. The last time Stafford attempted 560 was 2017, when he finished as the QB 7, making Marvin Jones the WR10, Golladay was a rookie (WR70), and Golden Tate (WR11), Fells and Ebron combined for 7 TDs as well. Why do I bring this up? Stafford is entering a team with Kupp, Woods, Van Jefferson, Akers, Higbee all under contract until 2024. This is arguably the most complete set of skill players on a team, in an offensive scheme that was able to make Goff the QB6 in 2018… what doors that open for Stafford over the next three years? 

How efficient was Stafford with a sub-par crew of weapons in 2020?

  • 10th in true completion %
  • 14th in deep ball completion %
  • 10th in catchable pass rate
  • 14th in production premium
  • 11th in accuracy rating 
  • 12th in passing yards

He did all of this while his receiving group was:

  • 23rd in separation
  • 41st in YAC/T
  • And had the 5th most drops.

I’ve heard the argument of “LAR defense is 1000x better than the Lion’s defense, he will nott have to play from behind and therefore less pass attempts” or something along those lines. 

First off, the Rams were 13-3 in 2018 and Goff threw 561 attempts. Secondly, they play in a conference with Seattle, Arizona, and San Francisco, which has a chance to be one of the highest scoring conferences in the NFL next season, meaning there’s strong chances Stafford will have many games of at least neutral game script. Ultimately, they can be a great team, and Stafford can have the passing volume to support not only a strong fantasy season, but at least 3 in a row.

Derek Carr 

29y.o (30 before start of 2021)

2020 🡪 QB14 (missed ~1 game)

Passing: 27 TDs, 9 INTs, 4103 yards

Running: 3 TDs

Dynasty SF Value = 1st + 2.08-2.10

Dynasty price tag = 2.01-2.06

There are many reasons why you should buy Derek Carr, and a few reasons why you can get him at a discount. 

Why is he a discount? 

He had an extremely average season, with 3 bust games, which all came when you expected boom games. 

  • Week 10 vs DEN (7.16 fantasy points) who just gave 284yds and 3TDs to Matt Ryan in week 8,
  • Week 12 vs ATL (-2.4 fantasy points) who were giving up the most points to the QB.
  • Week 15 (fantasy playoff semifinals) vs LAC (2.12 fantasy points) where he got hurt.

Three bust in five weeks, all end of season when things mattered most, leaving an extremely sour taste in owner’s mouths. Owners are ready to move him at a cheap price as it will feel as weight has been lifted off their shoulders.

Why he’s a dynasty buy? 

Jon Gruden’s offense is a tricky system to learn, people hate it because it looks like it’s only feeding Waller the ball, but there’s a lot more to it than that, and Carr spoke on this in an off-season interview and how it took 2 years to learn it, which is reflected in his QB finishes over last three seasons: 20, 17, 14. 

Derek Carr just threw for a career high 4103 yards (11th) while missing a game, where if he didn’t miss the one game, he was on pace for QB7 in total yards ahead of Aaron Rodgers.

In 2020, Carr was:

  • 11th in TDs thrown (27), 
  • 5th in Red Zone pass attempts,
  • 8th in money throws 
  • 6th in yards per attempt
  • 8th in deep ball attempts (10th in deep ball completion %)
  • 15th in accuracy rating
  • 13th in true passer rating 

He was very efficient for a QB who had Nelson Agholor as his WR1. Waller is still under contract, Ruggs will be a year older, and it’s no secret that the Raiders are trying to make the cap space to sign a top WR Free Agent (Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Juju Smith-Schuster… Godwin I expect back with Tampa, Fuller is a question mark). If we’re being honest, Las Vegas is appealing for any of those guys:

  • Great city/new arena, 
  • Top 3 TE demanding defensive attention 
  • Absolute field stretcher in Ruggs, under contract for another four years.
  • Young, stud RB that defenses need to respect in Jacobs. 
  • LV can make space to pay 17-19 million which would be about their asking prices.

Derek Carr finished as the QB 14, and odds are looking like their offense will have better pieces, and they’ll play in an extremely competitive division, where they will need to score points to stay in games, AND don’t feel threatened that Derek Carr will be traded or replaced as rumors are multiple teams have inquired and the Raiders have replied with a “hard no”. There’s a reason they’re trying to trade away Mariota, and I believe Carr start for the raiders for the remainder of his contract as a Raider. Derek Carr is a player I would advise to buy if your dynasty team is in a “win now” situation, where you can rely on him for at least two more seasons to bring consistent value. 

Conclusion 

To conclude, I am not saying break your bank, ruin your team, or trade great pieces away for these QBs. Evaluate your team, make sure you’re balanced. The easiest way to lose an SF dynasty league is by not having two reliable starting QBs. Both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady were not considered for this article as they’re more on the side of sell high or holds. Matt Ryan was the next guy on the list, which he split hairs with Derek Carr, the uncertainty and rumors of Matt Ryan being potentially replaced in the draft are what deterred him from making the list. That being said, if the Falcons do not draft a QB, Matt Ryan becomes an instant buy-low QB. The last tip here, instead of trading away a first and a second-round pick for these QBs, try to “sell the age” and package in a Drew Lock or a Sam Darnold to preserve the future of your team, while off-loading their questionable futures. 

Dynasty Outlook: Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson

Here is the dynasty outlook of Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson

By: Corey Dunn

The NFL is an entity with constant change and moving parts. No team can escape the inevitable hard decisions that seem to linger in the offseason. The team that will be focused in this article are the Pittsburgh Steelers, mainly Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. They played in an amazing offense that seemed to stall out towards the end of the season, coupled with an elite head coach and plenty of question marks. Will Ben Roethlisberger return? Will he be effective? Will they have similar roles in the upcoming season? Let’s dive into the analysis a little here.

For starters, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are by far from identical, despite finishing close to each other in the higher end WR20 range. Diontae is a smaller receiver at 5’10” 183 pounds and fits more of the Antonio Brown role that has been void since his departure in 2019. He is the kind of volume dependent wideout that Big Ben loves to turn into a star. With 10 plus targets in 10 of his 14 healthy games, he filled the role admirably, albeit only 6.4 yards per target. On the other hand, Chase Claypool is basically a superfreak that was created in a laboratory. He’s a freak at 6’4” 238 pounds, also running a 4.42 forty. He has a rare combination of size and speed that GM’s and head coaches drool over. He was routinely a downfield target, ranking in the top 10 in the NFL in air yards and an average target distance (aDOT) of 13.3 yards. 

Next, we need to know who is throwing them the ball. This is where it gets tricky. Ben Roethlisberger is rumoured to be returning to the Steelers with a new contract to be less of a cap hit, ESPN reports. I still don’t think it’s set in stone that he is returning, but I think it is around 65-35 leaning that he gives it one last go around. Mike Tomlin runs the most pass heavy offense in the league, averaging a league high 42.6 attempts a game. The Steelers have a good history of quarterbacks, so I have confidence in their ability to bring in a quality signal caller and trust Mike Tomlin’s so support multiple wideouts in the top 24. 

Finally we get to talk about the outlook of the wide receivers. First up is Diontae Johnson.He has elite footwork and has established himself as one of the best route runners in the NFL in just his second year. Despite being a smaller receiver, he carried a large load for the offense. We mentioned the intangibles earlier, but let’s dive deeper into the numbers now. The former Toledo Rocket carried the WR1 load for the Steelers offense with 144 total targets, but disappointed with 923 yards and a 61% catch rate. He was banged up a little early, which is concerning given the fact that he is a smaller receiver. The flashes of talent showed up inconsistently, however I did enjoy watching him work underneath. Most of his success came from slants, curls, and screens and him turning it upfield for a chunk gain. The biggest red flag was the league leading 11 drops during the season. The fact of the matter is that you cannot be an Alpha wideout with these types of stats nowadays. He can enjoy success but I’m not quite sure he can be a trusted fantasy WR1. He will consistently be around the WR2/3 range for the rest of his career. I do think he has a very solid future as a slot receiver in the NFL, but is a better real life football player than fantasy asset. Now, onto Chase Claypool.

Chase Claypool has a ton to be excited about, but first let’s dive into the blemishes.  I noticed that he would disappear a lot in games, most likely to the amount of go routes to open up the field underneath. Also, like his colleague Diontae, he struggled with drops. He had 5 drops on the season, which is not terrible and will likely be chalked up as rookie struggles.I don’t think that will be a major issue going forward though. His 56.9% catch rate on 109 targets is a tad concerning too. I think this is due to most of his targets being downfield and having less shallow routes for higher percentage targets. Now the good news. He had an 80.5% true catch rate and opened up a new page of the playbook as a field stretcher. His huge frame was also used a ton in the red zone, having 13 targets within the 20. He is only getting better and will be fun to watch going forward. I think that he has the type of frame and future workload to be a Mike Evans caliber of player. He simply has too much talent to keep wrapped up and it will be bad news for the league when he figures it all out.

To sum everything up, both wideouts will be someone you want to own in dynasty. Diontae will have his best seasons as a target hog, but with his role being a question mark after next season, he might be a sell high candidate.The futures of both hinge on where Juju Smith-Schuster goes. If he stays on a long term deal, it will be interesting to see how he eats into the shallow targets of Diontae Johnson. Chase Claypool is the piece of the offense that I would want, as his role is off of big plays and he doesn’t need a lot of targets to get to his value. His ceiling is 40+ points and we have already seen him hit that as a rookie. His speed will sneak up on slower defensive backs and he will have many chunk plays. Diontae’s ceiling is lower to me at around 26 points, which isn’t bad, but is purely volume based. A ceiling comparison for Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool  would be Steve Smith and Vincent Jackson, respectively. I don’t believe DJ will reach his full potential once Big Ben retires though. I would recommend selling high on Diontae and getting as many shares of Chase Claypool like he’s GameStop or AMC.

Dynasty Fantasy Football: How to Evaluate a Trade

How to evaluate a trade in dynasty fantasy football

By: Joe Mason @JosephMason94

Dynasty fantasy football has become one of the most popular fantasy league formats within the fantasy community. It gives you a sense of ownership and with it comes the responsibility as that of a real NFL general manager.

Trading in dynasty can be intimidating, but unlike your standard redraft league, trades in a dynasty league has implications for a number of years with the potential to either make or break your squad. At times a player’s value can fluctuate more than the New York Stock Exchange, requiring the most dedicated owners to always stay on top of league news, player contracts, player age…etc. I have been on the winning and losing side of a number of dynasty trades over the years. With that pleasure and pain, I’ve experienced, I’m here to give you the key specifics you should focus on to help you become better at trading in dynasty fantasy football. 

A Players Value

Trading in dynasty fantasy football is all about understanding a player’s value. Sure, trade calculators can give you a general understanding on if you win or lose a trade, but sometimes they are outdated and trades you make should really be specific to your team. So, what factors should you consider when assessing a player’s value? 

Contract

While this doesn’t seem to correlate to on-field production, a player locked into a contract of three or more years should give dynasty owners a sense of security. Player holdouts have become increasingly popular over the years and having your top guy such as LeVeon Bell in 2018 miss out on the season to get paid can really hurt your squad. This is another reason why it’s important to hold other teams running back handcuffs. They may produce for you, or you can flip them to the team that has a starter holding out for a nice return. 

Supporting Cast / Coaches

For supporting cast, this primarily applies to the skill position players where a QB can make or break a player’s production. Take into account Ezekiel Elliot for the 2020 season and his splits with and without Dak Prescott in PPR. 

The targets per game are big here, especially for the running back position. A quarterback can have this type of impact on your skill position players so it’s important to also monitor their QB’s contract situation. 

Coaching in every sport is important, but in football I believe coaching has the biggest influence on the game. Coaches have certain tendencies that can help you predict how free agents or rookies can perform in their new home. 

Appreciating vs. Declining Asset

Dynasty is all about the fluctuation of player value and knowing when to buy and when to sell. More often than not you want to acquire players who have potential to increase in value.

A big factor in determining this for every player is peak production age by position. Jonathan Bales, author of “Fantasy Football for Smart People” (2013) found the age of decline for each position.

Quarterbacks peak around the age of 30 and have the longest shelf life of the four positions but can be relevant into their late 30s. Tight ends take the longest to develop and peak at 29, but there is a steep drop off once they hit their ceiling.

Wide receivers peak around age 26/27 and can sustain value into their early 30s. Running backs have the highest turnover out of the four positions and tend to peak at age 26.

Once a running back is off his rookie contract is when I tend to sell high. They most likely have hit their ceiling and will only decline in value going forward. While age is important in a dynasty, the main goal is to win a championship and build a team that can contend year in and year out.

Don’t let age weigh too much into your trades but be aware of the age where you tend to see a decline in production. Now with this information, I gave you, go see if you can move your age 26 RB1 from this year for a much younger RB2 while maybe picking up a young WR that underperformed this year. Your team over the next few years will thank you. 

Finding a Value and Pursuing It

D’Andre Swift was the top running back on many analysts draft boards before the 2020 NFL Draft. A first-round talent, Swift ended falling on day two in the second round to the Detroit Lions which most people considered a bad landing spot for running backs.

The Lions owned a league-low three 100 yard-rushing games since Reggie Bush did it on Thanksgiving in 2013 against the Packers. Kerryon Johnson owns all three of them with two in 2018 and one in 2019.

Swift ended up being the fourth or fifth rookie running back taken off the board in rookie drafts in favor of those with better landing spots. If you owned a mid-rookie first, you may be lucked out and snagged him. If not, you only had a short “buy window” before he was no longer a value. 

A great way to assess a player’s value is by tracking their ADP. If you believe that a player will be going above their ADP one year from today, you can consider this a “buy window”.

As talented a player as Swift is, his ADP should have been rounds 3-4 right next to another top rookie RBs. Swift hovered around the sixth round before the season and after a slow start, he dropped to an ADP of round 7.

If you were watching the Lions games each week, you could easily tell he was the most efficient back between him, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson. On November 14th before week 10, the Lions named him the starter and his ADP never looked back. 

To recap, use the factors I called out above to help you form an opinion on a player. Then, if they have a chance to appreciate in value, they would make a nice dynasty target for your squad. The fastest way to improve your dynasty squad is by winning trades and these key items above can help you get there.

Tua Tagovailoa: Dynasty Outlook

Here is the latest dynasty outlook for Tua Tagovailoa

It is true fantasy football never ends, especially if you are playing Devy or Dynasty. One of the most critical positions in any fantasy football roster is the quarterback.

If you can hit on a steady quarterback, you are set for a while anyway. Let’s take a look at Tua Tagovailoa. No quarterback is coming into the 2021 season with more questions than Tagovailoa: First, he was outplayed by fellow rookie Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.

Then there is the memory of his last game on the field, where he completed 35-of-58 passes for 361 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and only 28 rushing yards on six carries. Of course, is the ever-present speculation of a trade imminent, Tagovailoa to Houston Texans and Deshaun Watson to Miami. And, of course, the shadow of Ryan Fitzpatrick looms large.

If Tagovailoa stays in Miami, will they also bring back Fitzpatrick? Making the option of Tagovailoa being pulled from any game at any time a possibility. STATISTICALLY SPEAKING: http://ProFootballFocus.com has Tagovailoa ranked 30th in passing grade among passes with at least 200 dropbacks. Statistically speaking, he was the QB31 in fantasy points for 2020.

He finished with 11 touchdowns (29th) and five interceptions (three in one game). He ran the ball 36 times for 109 yards and had one fumble. He averaged 6.25 yards per attempt.

For the season, he had 1814 passing yards and 109 rushing yards. Tagovailoa started nine games. He played in 10.

Tagovailoa is 23 years old and will be in the second year of his rookie quarterback. Those who do not think that drafting a quarterback back-to-back is out of the question (Dolphins currently have the third pick in the draft) do not forget about the Arizona Cardinals drafting Kyler Murray the season after Josh Rosen. All I am saying is that it is a possibility.

Tagovailoa’s stats aren’t bad, remember it was his first year and the first time he legitimately been on the field since his injury. The problem is the aforementioned Burrow, Herbert, and not to mention the incoming rookie class.

There is also head coach Brian Flores propensity to pull his quarterback in-game for a better option. Even if Fitzpatrick does not return, there is always the possibility of the Dolphins picking up one of the veteran free agents available.

Free Agent Quarterbacks 2021 Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott Philip Rivers Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston

Any of those players could go to the Dolphins as a “back-up,” further devaluing Tagovailoa. BUY OR SELL There is that chance that Tagovailoa will have a bounce-back year in Miami if he stays and Fitzpatrick goes. But your dynasty fortunes should not be held hostage by “so you are saying there is a chance” theory of trades. If you can sell Tagovailoa, now is the time to strike. There is no reason that you want to buy Tagovailoa, even at a bargain-basement price.

Jalen Hurts: Dynasty Outlook

What is the dynasty outlook of Jalen Hurts?

By: Chris Moore (Twitter: @fantasy_moore)

Let’s start with the obvious, Jalen Hurts is the Quarterback of the future for the Eagles. Carson Wentz was atrocious for the Eagles this season, and it was clear a change needed to happen at the Quarterback position. 

Hurts picked up a signature win for the Eagles in his first start against the Saints in Week 14, throwing for 167 yards and one touchdown, while also rushing 18 times for 106 yards. Against the Saints, Hurts showed the NFL how dangerous he is as a dual-threat. He provided the Eagles depleted offense with a new spark that they so desperately needed. Hurts then started the rest of the season for the Eagles and looks to be the Eagles starter for the next years to come.

ATHLETICISM

There is no question Jalen Hurts is very athletic, as the Eagles themselves pictured Hurts playing the Taysom Hill role for them when they drafted him. 

We saw a small sample size this season of what Jalen Hurts can bring to an NFL offense. Looking at the player profiler, Hurts’ 40-yard dash and burst scores are above the 90th percentile for Quarterbacks. Both of these scores are considered extraordinary for a quarterback. In his four starts, Hurts has shown how athletic he is with his legs. He isn’t quite Lamar Jackson, but Jalen Hurts is a threat with his legs: Rushing for 354 yards and three touchdowns in four starts. 

COLLEGIATE PRODUCTION 

Jalen Hurts’ collegiate career consisted of monotonous ups and downs. Hurts had a strong freshman season for Alabama but was benched for teammate Tua Tagovailoa at the end of his second season. 

Hurts then transferred to Oklahoma, where he put up career-best numbers in Lincoln Riley’s offense. Hurts threw for 3,851 yards and 32 passing touchdowns. He also rushed for 1,298 yards and 20 rushing touchdowns. 

Hurts had his best college season at Oklahoma, finishing second in the Heisman voting for the 2019 campaign. Hurts would finish his collegiate career with 9,477 passing yards, 80 passing touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. Hurts was no stranger to finding the end zone throughout his college career, and we are seeing that translate in the NFL. 

2020 season (per Pro Football Reference)

4 Games Started 

77 Completions on 148 Attempts 

1061 Passing Yards 

6 Passing Touchdowns 

4 Interceptions 

63 Rushing Attempts for 354 yards and 3 Rushing Touchdowns 

Fantasy QB35 on the season (112.5 total points)

FANTASY UPSIDE

He only started four games for the Eagles this year, but Hurts showed the kind of fantasy upside he can have if he played a full year. 

In weeks 14-17 Hurts was the seventh best fantasy Quarterback, outscoring Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson, to name a few. Hurts showed the league how dangerous he is with his legs, rushing 63 times for 354 yards and three touchdowns in his four starts. 

Jalen Hurts has the upside to finish as the highest fantasy scoring QB in any week, as he did this season in Week 15. Hurts finished as the highest-scoring fantasy Quarterback in Week 15 against the Cardinals, completing 24 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Hurts also had 63 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, proving he has QB1 upside anytime he touches the field.

FUTURE OUTLOOK

The only thing that is going to be stopping Jalen Hurts from fantasy stardom is the Eagles. There have been reports that Carson Wentz could be back for the Eagles next season since he is still under contract, but I don’t expect that to happen. I believe Carson Wentz will be traded this off-season as his relationship with the Eagles organization and Doug Pederson doesn’t seem mendable. The Eagles also look like they are committing to Jalen Hurts for the future, and the Carson Wentz era in Philadelphia appears to be over. 

 Jalen Hurts is the future for the Eagles at the quarterback position, and I think they will realize that this off-season. There’s no question the Eagles need to get Hurts some playmakers on the offense and fix the offensive line. But that should be addressed this off-season, and with the number six pick in the draft.

 With that being said Hurts is a buy right now for me. In his four starts, Hurts finished as a top-15 fantasy quarterback in every week but week 17.  Hurts’ rushing floor will make him a top-15 fantasy quarterback option each week and is why I view Jalen Hurts as a top 12 fantasy quarterback in 2021. 

Hurts is my QB12 right behind Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. He showed us in four games this year what his fantasy ceiling can be, and I would be looking to buy him in any leagues I need a quarterback. The Eagles offense will only get better in the upcoming years, and we could potentially be seeing Jalen Hurts throwing to  DeVonta Smith or Ja’Marr Chase next season. If he plays 16 games for the Eagles in 2021, Hurts will finish as a top-10 fantasy QB.  

Dynasty Fantasy Football 2021: 3 Top QB Values to Trade For

QB values to trade for

By: Gladys Louise Tyler (Twitter: @neverenoughglt)

It is true fantasy football season never ends, especially if you play in devy or dynasty leagues. The research is non-stop, as are the trade offers.  

So it is crucial to keep up with the who’s, the what’s, and the what-nots. So whether you are in a one quarterback or a Superflex dynasty league, having a reliable man under center is going to be your number one priority.  

Think of it this way, the quarterback touches the ball more than anyone else on that offense.  You have to depend on him.  With that said:

QUARTERBACKS WHO WILL BE FREE AGENTS 2021

This is in no particular order.

•PHILIP RIVERS

•DAK PRESCOTT

•JAMEIS WINSTON

•CAM NEWTON

•RYAN FITZPATRICK

•JACOBY BRISETT

•ANDY DALTON

•MITCHELL TRUBISKY

•TYROD TAYLOR

TEAMS THAT MAY BE IN NEED OF A QUARTERBACK 2021

•DENVER BRONCOS

•INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

•DALLAS COWBOYS

•ATLANTA FALCONS

•JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

•NEW YORK JETS

•NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

•WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAMS

DYNASTY FOOTBALL NEEDS

So your job is to get ahead of the curve.  First, decide if your dynasty team is in a win-now mode, or are you loading up for an epic run?  Me, I am always in a win-now mode, so these choices reflect that attitude. 

As always, keep in mind how your league scores the quarterback position.  It matters. 

Second and most important, can we look into that crystal ball and put a quarterback with a team…before it actually happens?  ‘Cause that, my friend, is fantasy gold. 

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