By: Michael Welsh

It is not common for a team to hit on so many players in one draft that all contribute immediately. In the past, Cleveland would be drafting players in all rounds to be immediate starters. That wasn’t always the prettiest scene. This year the Browns arguably had the best draft in all of football, but everyone just needed to wait and see how it would play out on the field. The only team that comes close to the level of the production in Cleveland so far are the Chargers. Between the two, Cleveland gets the edge.

What Andrew Berry has done as the General Manager of the Browns in two years is nothing short of spectacular. He has addressed needs in both free agency and the draft with countless smart moves and has proved to be a rising star in the front office. In the 2021 draft, it was no secret Cleveland needed help in the secondary and at linebacker. Andrew Berry addressed both of those needs in the first and second round with Greg Newsome and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Where Berry has shined as well in his drafting has been identifying talent in the later rounds. Several picks from the 2021 draft have already been contributing at a high level in the young season.

Greg Newsome II – CB (1st round pick)

From day one, Greg Newsome was at the top of Andrew Berry’s draft board. The pick came in extremely quick once the Browns got on the clock, and before we knew it, Greg Newsome was in the brown and orange. In the first three games, Newsome has been incredibly impressive. He has a 70.1 Pro Football Focus grade and only 4 receptions allowed. In addition to that, he just hasn’t been targeted a lot so far due to such tight coverage week in and week out. Playing cornerback at the NFL level is one of the hardest positions, especially for a rookie. And Greg Newsome hasn’t looked like a rookie at all.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – LB (2nd round pick)

JOK was the pick that most Browns fans were excited about more than anyone else. He was projected to be a first round pick, but fell due to a rumored heart condition that has since been proven to be false. Andrew Berry wanted him so Cleveland traded up to get him in the second round. All he has done at the pro level is turn heads and play at an elite level each game. He is currently graded at 90.1 per Pro Football Focus, which leads all linebackers in the NFL. He has displayed next-level play recognition and pursuit on ball carriers. Browns fans should be very excited about him, he’s an All-Pro in the making. His versatility makes him a nightmare for opposing offenses.

Demetric Felton – RB/WR (6th round pick)

As mentioned earlier, Andrew Berry has shown that he finds talent in the later rounds. Demetric Felton caught his eye due to his explosiveness and versatility. In the pre-season, Felton was already making flashy plays left and right. During the regular season, he has picked up right where he left off, making multiple defenders miss on a wide receiver screen as he raced in for his first career touchdown. He has all the makings of a secret weapon that can make a real difference in a game. In addition to being an offensive weapon, he has looked great on kick and punt returns, which is encouraging since Cleveland has been looking for a weapon back there for years now. As he develops, he will only get better and better. He has an elite 92.5 grade from Pro Football Focus. Very impressive for a 6th round pick.

Anthony Schwartz – WR (3rd round pick)

Perhaps the player to most look like a rookie out of all of Andrew Berry’s draft picks, Anthony Schwartz has had a mix of good and bad moments thus far. In the opening game against the Kansas City Chiefs, he had 3 catches for 69 and a rush for 17 yards, really displaying his elite speed. The following week against the Texans, he looked more like a rookie stopping on a route that lead to a Baker Mayfield interception. Kevin Stefanski let him have it on the sideline. Other than that, Schwartz has shown promise and will likely take more time to develop. But his ability to stretch the field is very appealing to the Browns, who had issues doing that when Odell Beckham Jr went down with an injury last season.

The post The Browns have the best rookie class in football appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Calvin K (Twitter: @Calvin_SGF)

A feeling of excitement is in the air, as NFL training camps are underway and the inaugural preseason game is in the books. Last Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game marked the beginning of the league’s 102nd season, and it will be the second straight year taking place during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Every year, perhaps the most exciting part of training camp is getting to finally see new rookies in action on an NFL practice field. For those rookies, training camp is crucial to learn their new systems and develop as players, and the practices also allow fans to get inside glimpses into how the preparation is going. As usual, many rookies will have an immediate impact in the NFL and in fantasy football, while others will take a while to develop and some may never have a significant impact in the fantasy world. In this article, I’ll be analyzing some rookies to target, rookies to avoid, and other interesting names that you should know heading into your fantasy draft.

Rookies to Target

1. Ja’Marr Chase (WR, Cincinnati Bengals)

Chase is considered perhaps one of the best wide receiver prospects we’ve seen in the last decade, and for good reason. There really aren’t any major flaws in Chase’s college film, and opting out of the 2020 season allowed him to focus on minor refinements that presumably made him a more complete receiver. With a great release, excellent hands, and electric speed, he should step in right away as an impactful NFL receiver.

Reuniting with his college quarterback in Joe Burrow is a major plus for Chase’s fantasy value, and the immediate connection between the pair, as well as the draft capital (#5 overall) spent on Chase implies that he will soon be the Bengals’ top wideout. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both very good receivers as well, but neither of them have the same explosiveness, athletic traits, and dominating play style of Chase. Burrow was also on a 16-game pace of 646 passing attempts last year, a number that would’ve been close to the top of the league. With A.J. Green no longer in the fold, that number is plenty to support all three Bengals wide receivers, and Chase’s upside means he projects to be the best of the bunch in year one and beyond.

2. Javonte Williams (RB, Denver Broncos)

The Broncos made sure to acquire Williams in this year’s draft, moving up five spots to #35 overall and getting the guy they’d set their sights on. Williams will have to compete with Melvin Gordon for the lead role in the Broncos backfield, but his abilities as a tackle-breaker and a pass-catcher mean that he could soon be a three-down back for the team.

Gordon will be a free agent after this year, so it seems obvious that the Broncos would consider Williams to be their future. It gets trickier to project Williams’ 2021 playing time, but his punishing running style means that he could see the field early and often. Williams had easily the highest tackle-breaking rate in the FBS last year, and if that translates to the NFL level, it could mean staggering efficiency, which is something we don’t always see from pure north-south runners.

Strength-of-schedule can be a stat that changes drastically mid-season, but even so, the Broncos’ late-season schedule can still be considered a cause for excitement. After their Week 11 bye, Denver only plays one team above the bottom 10 in points per game allowed, setting Williams up for a potential backfield takeover at a perfect time. We could see a Jonathan-Taylor type breakout from Williams in Weeks 12-17, and league-winning performances in those weeks would certainly make up for a potentially slow start to the year (which may not even happen, given camp reports saying he’s expected to compete right away). Overall, Williams’ talent combined with circumstances could yield a great year for him in fantasy, which is why he’s more than worth a selection at his RB27 price.

3. DeVonta Smith (WR, Philadelphia Eagles)

Smith has a major opportunity to step up in Philadelphia, and in my opinion, he should’ve been picked over Jaylen Waddle at #6 overall. Smith and Chase have many similar traits, as Smith also has consistent hands and gets off the line fast. However, Smith is arguably the better route runner of the two consistency-wise, which then leads to the sensible assumption that the sole reason Smith dropped in the draft was his BMI.

At 6’0″, 174 pounds (166 at his combine), Smith’s weight is lower than essentially every successful wide receiver ever, even weighing in lower than players such as Marvin Harrison and Will Fuller. However, as the first WR to win the Heisman Trophy in 29 years, Smith has established that he’s an outlier at the position. Smith stayed in great health throughout a grueling SEC season last year, and the concerns about injury risk tend to be overblown when you consider that he only missed two games due to injury in his entire college career. Now in the NFL, he should have a great chance at immediately being the Eagles’ top receiver, as his only major competitor for targets is likely to be tight end Dallas Goedert. If he starts for most of the year (which, barring injury, he almost certainly will), he has the potential to be a top-20 fantasy wide receiver, making his current WR39 FantasyPros price feel like his absolute floor.

4. Elijah Moore (WR, New York Jets)

At WR62 on FantasyPros, Moore is set up to be a tremendous value, one that you can get at the very back of your draft. Moore has top-30 WR upside in this new-look Jets’ offense, and while his true breakout isn’t likely to happen in 2021, he still has lots of potential to make noise alongside fellow rookie Zach Wilson.

Wilson’s arm talent allows him to place throws where only his receivers can get it, which is a perfect match for Moore, a speedy receiver with excellent hands and pure, consistent route-running ability. Corey Davis, a veteran, will likely be Wilson’s favorite target early in the season, but Moore’s superior big-play ability will likely translate into a higher target share as the season goes on. Moore could easily end up being the #1 target for New York, but even if he’s not, he can still succeed as the WR2 in what’s likely to be a pass-first offense. Moore has the ability to score long touchdowns and make big plays, but he also was consistently an open target at Ole Miss, which could mean big things for him in the NFL.

Rookies to Avoid

1. Michael Carter (RB, New York Jets)

Carter is not a terrible player to take a shot on late in drafts, but the fourth-round RB is inexplicably ranked 19 spots ahead of Tevin Coleman, who is likely to have more success this year. Fourth-round RBs have an extremely low hit rate, so it makes much more sense to project New York reliance on Coleman, who has a solid 4.2 career yards per carry.

2. Rondale Moore (WR, Arizona Cardinals)

Moore is currently FantasyPros’ WR72, and at that price, he’s a fine player to take a shot on. However, I wouldn’t expect a breakout season from him this year. Christian Kirk is already established as a valuable piece for this Cardinals team, and with the addition of A.J. Green this offseason, it could be difficult for Moore to find a role in the offense.

Moore is incredibly fast, and his burst may be unmatched by any receiver in this draft class. However, he isn’t a dominating type of player, and his speed often is the only tool he uses to win matchups. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing at all for his potential success in the NFL, but it seems likely that this skill set will primarily be a situational one in 2021. As a gadget guy, Moore will be able to throw defenses off balance, but his skill set doesn’t project to him being a high-volume receiver, which could cause him to be inconsistent and disappointing for your fantasy team. Moore certainly has tons of talent, and he could even become a player similar to Tyreek Hill at some point, but we’ve seen many recent examples of speed being overhyped in the NFL (Andy Isabella, Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, etc.), which is why Moore carries a lot of risk and not a ton of reward for this year.

3. Trey Sermon (RB, San Francisco 49ers)

Sermon, who the 49ers selected in the 3rd round of this year’s draft, has some upside, and in the long-term, he could be a very solid RB. However, it’ll be difficult for him to carve out a role this year given the amount of backfield competition in San Francisco.

Raheem Mostert will be a free agent after this year, so Sermon will have an opportunity to be this team’s lead back in the future. However, it’s hard to see him becoming the clear lead back in 2021 while competing with Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and others for touches. The 49ers like to use a running-back-by-committee approach, and Kyle Shanahan likes to run with the hot hand, an approach that can favor a healthy Mostert, who is extremely explosive and efficient. As a third-round RB, Sermon’s hit probability is also much lower than someone like Javonte Williams, so it’s probably unwise to expect a ton from him year one. He’s a fine late-round flier, but his RB35 FantasyPros ranking likely means someone in your league will put at least somewhat of a premium pick on him, which just doesn’t appear worth it in redraft.

Other Names to Know

Kyle Pitts (TE, Atlanta Falcons)

Pitts is an incredible athlete, and he’s in consideration as perhaps the best tight-end prospect in the history of the NFL. Pitts became the first non-QB off the board when the Falcons selected him at #4 overall, and at 6’6″ and 240 pounds, he has the perfect build for a dominating tight end. His athleticism means he can be a vertical dominating threat who can win 50 50 balls consistently, and he has a willingness and an underrated talent for blocking as well, which can’t even be said about some of the league’s better tight ends. However, almost every rookie at the tight end position doesn’t immediately have a massive target share in year one. Pitts’ generational talent means that he could be a superstar right out of the gate, but the early-season risk places him as my TE6 overall for this year.

Travis Etienne (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars)

Etienne is a frustrating case because the Jaguars’ selection of him at #25 overall placed him into what should be a heated backfield battle with fellow RB James Robinson. Robinson shined in his rookie season after going undrafted last year, but the addition of Etienne likely means he won’t handle close to the historically high snap share that came his way last season. The Jaguars will be better as a team this year, which should help both RBs, but the fact remains that they both are talented, and they will continuously eat into each other’s workloads. Etienne’s main breakout will be in the second half of the year when he’s gotten some NFL experience, but even then, a true emergence could be difficult to pull off given Robinson’s presence. Due to all of this, Etienne is my #28 fantasy RB for next year, and while he does have some upside, his risk is too high for me to want him as my RB2.

Rashod Bateman (WR, Baltimore Ravens)

Bateman, the Ravens’ first-round wide receiver out of Minnesota, is an electric player with many highlight-reel-worthy plays on his college tape. However, he will, unfortunately, be part of a Ravens offense that just doesn’t throw the ball enough to give Bateman tons of upside. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had 376 pass attempts in 15 games last year. In contrast, Bengals QB Joe Burrow had 28 more attempts while playing in just 10 games. This limited volume will cap Bateman’s ceiling and limit his consistency, and with an elite tight end in Mark Andrews already established as this offense’s top target, it’ll be hard for the rookie to breakthrough in year one. Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins will also fight for the team’s #2 role, and fourth-round pick Tylan Wallace is in the mix as well. All of these factors don’t necessarily mean Bateman won’t succeed, but they certainly make it much more difficult for him to be consistently productive in fantasy.

Jaylen Waddle (WR, Miami Dolphins)

Waddle is joining a confusing situation in Miami, and although he will reunite with Tua Tagovailoa, his college QB, there are a lot of question marks surrounding his fantasy potential. Tua’s inconsistency last year is one cause for concern, and while we know he has lots of arm talent, it remains to be seen if he can produce at the NFL level. Another issue for Waddle will be the Dolphins’ supporting cast. Will Fuller and Mike Gesicki should both handle significant receiving work, and with DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, and Albert Wilson also vying for targets, it could be difficult for Waddle to carve out an established role. Finally, while Waddle is an electric player, he’s not necessarily a very complete WR. His hands are a major question mark, and this could cause him to become more of a gadget guy for the team, with a large portion of his touches coming at or near the line of scrimmage. Gadget roles usually aren’t overly consistent on a week-to-week basis, and while manufactured touches could help his touch share overall, they may not be reliable enough to immediately help your team this year. In the dynasty, Waddle will have much more time to develop a significant offensive role, but for this year, there are a lot of hurdles to overcome, which is why his immediate production potential appears limited.

First-Round QBs

All five first-round quarterbacks could make a fantasy impact this year, but it’s not necessarily likely that any single one will put up amazing stats in Year 1. Trevor Lawrence is the consensus rookie QB1 for redraft, and while he has a good arm and some rushing upside, he doesn’t have the same rushing explosiveness as players like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Lawrence has solid weapons in Jacksonville, but overall, there’s not really a reason to believe that he should be drafted above other established veterans at the position. Zach Wilson’s arm talent is incredible, but coming from a non-Power Five school in BYU could mean that it takes him some time to adjust at the NFL level. Trey Lance has great rushing upside, but he’s unlikely to start immediately for the 49ers, as they seem quite comfortable with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter for now. I’d expect Lance, this year’s #3 overall pick, to see the field at some point this year, but it seems assured that he won’t provide a full year of fantasy production. The same thing applies to Justin Fields, who has great arm talent and speed. Fields also was an inconsistent decision-maker against the blitz in college, and those issues could be exacerbated when facing NFL defenses. Finally, Mac Jones of New England is likely to see the field least out of this group, and while he is an accurate passer, his rushing upside is extremely minimal, which will make it tough for him to provide big fantasy weeks.

Overall, there are many intriguing storylines to consider when evaluating rookies for your fantasy draft. I tend to believe that rookies are generally undervalued in redraft, which is why I have more major players to target than to avoid. Drafting rookies gives you a lot of upsides, and while they may disappoint early in the year, many will come through in a big way later on. That early-season disappointment can also give you a perfect buy-low window on some rookies, and while many will be good from the start of the year, others can sometimes be acquired for extremely low prices, making them likely to pay off on investment. Overall, you should make sure to have a good evaluation on a rookie and their surrounding players before making a selection. However, with the right knowledge, targeting rookies can be a great strategy to aid your chances of winning your fantasy league.

The post 2021 Fantasy Football rookie outlook appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Adam Hulse (@AdamHulseSports)

Now that the NFL Draft has completed and teams are preparing for this upcoming season, it’s time to start looking at which rookies could have a major immediate impact on their new teams. It’s fair to explore which of these drafted players is going to contribute the most to the overall success of their team in this upcoming season.

A difference maker is defined as someone who brings their team to a new level. They have the ability to make their team noticeably better with them than without them. Their impact should clearly contribute to an increase in wins for this upcoming season.

That being said, this list is not necessarily the three most talented rookies from each conference, but rather the three who have the most potential to be immediate difference-makers. Let’s see who makes the cut.

AFC: QB Trevor Lawrence, Jags

In the case of Trevor Lawrence, he is both the most talented rookie as well as the one with the most potential to be an immediate difference-maker. He is one of the highest-graded prospects in the history of scouting and is widely accepted as a generational player. The sky is the limit for Lawrence, and if he can live up to the hype, he will truly be something special. He is perfectly built to play quarterback in the NFL with all of his physical attributes and skills.

Let’s be honest here, the Jags will still most likely be one of the worst teams in the NFL this upcoming season. Their roster has way too many holes to be taken seriously. The difference is that they should be much more competitive with Lawrence under center and will almost definitely improve from their abysmal one-win season last year. Lawrence provides the Jags with a great reason to be optimistic about their future.

AFC: RB Najee Harris, Steelers

Najee Harris is looking to be the next successful Alabama running back in the NFL. The Crimson Tide has a good track record at the position, and Harris is just as good as any of the other names on the list. He is big and strong but still has the burst of speed necessary to make big plays. As a bonus, he is a good receiver as well with the skillset to be a three-down back.

A solid running game was the one big thing that the Steelers were missing last season. They are hoping they solved that problem by drafting Harris with their first-round draft pick. He is in line for a huge workload this season, especially since they lost James Conner to free agency. He has all of the tools to be successful in this situation, and will likely have a big season. If he plays to his potential, the Steelers can be a true contender in the AFC Conference.

AFC: WR Rashod Bateman, Ravens

An explosive receiver with plenty of big-play ability, Rashod Bateman is a major piece that has been missing for the Ravens. He and Hollywood Brown as a tandem should really open things up for their offense. It will provide Lamar Jackson with more targets downfield that he’s been seriously lacking, as well as make it more difficult for opposing defenses to stack the box. This will allow for their dominant running game to do even more damage or leave the defense vulnerable to big plays downfield behind them. If all goes according to plan, Bateman makes the Ravens offense a new level of dynamic.

NFC: QB Trey Lance, 49ers

The 49ers clearly do not believe in Jimmy Garoppolo because they used their draft capital to move up and select Trey Lance with the third overall pick. Lance is an incredible athlete with a ton of potential, and could really blossom into something special under Kyle Shanahan. His dual-threat abilities add another dimension to an already dynamic style of offense. The 49ers made it all the way to the Super Bowl just two seasons ago, but a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness at the quarterback position last year resulted in a huge regression for the team. Lance will look to turn things back around for them when he gets his opportunity, and he’s in an ideal situation to thrive.

NFC: QB Justin Fields, Bears

The stock of Justin Fields mysteriously fell a bit leading up to the NFL Draft, but make no mistake about it, he is an extremely talented quarterback. In fact, he was projected to be the second overall pick for most of last season, and his game looked every bit the part. He will now get the opportunity to rescue the Bears from a disastrous quarterback situation and join a team that’s already built to win right now. They won 8 games last season with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL, so it’s realistic to expect double-digit wins if that problem is solved. Fields is more than capable of being the one to do it, making the Bears a real sleeper contender in the NFC conference.

NFC: LB Micah Parsons, Cowboys

The Cowboys defense was one of the worst in the NFL season. It was a huge reason for their struggles as a team, so the organization decided to use this draft to improve the defensive unit. They started by using their first-round pick to select Micah Parsons, who is one of the most versatile players in this entire rookie class. He is a jack of all trades style of player who can line up at multiple positions and contribute in a wide variety of ways. The Cowboys offense is loaded with firepower and should be one of the best in the NFL, so if their defense can step up then they will be a real threat in the NFC. Parsons has a great chance to be a big reason for drastic improvement, and he’s even the current betting favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.

The post Projecting the Top 3 rookie players in AFC and NFC appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Jason Ferris and Craig Olivier

Cut to the Chase

The 2021 NFL Draft featured several highly touted offensive prospects. Choosing which one to claim the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year title was a daunting task. This draft featured potential franchise QB’s as the first three picks, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars), Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson (New York Jets) and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance (San Francisco 49ers). Florida’s exceptional TE, Kyle Pitts, was drafted fourth overall by the Atlanta Falcons, making him the highest drafted player at that position in NFL history. I have no doubt that these young talents will have a significant impact on their respective teams this season and beyond.

With that said, the player I believe will make the biggest splash this year was selected fifth overall by the Cincinnati Bengals, LSU’s WR Ja’Marr Chase. Despite opting not to play in 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns (or more likely his agent’s advice), Chase was the consensus No. 1 WR in this year’s draft. A top draft evaluator described Chase as the “Best Wide receiver prospect since Julio Jones.”[1]

The 20 year-old Louisiana native was rated among the top 20 receiver prospects nationally coming out of high school. As a freshman at LSU in 2018, Chase started seven of 13 games, catching 23 passes for 313 yards, with three touchdowns. His coming-out party came the following year, as Chase led the FBS and set SEC records with 1,780 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns in 14 starts. He won the 2019 Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver and helped LSU win the national title, hauling in nine receptions for 221 years and two touchdowns in the championship game against Clemson.

Chase has explosive speed and big play capability, with eight touchdowns of 50-plus yards in 2019. Perhaps his most prominent attribute is his ability to bully cornerbacks. He is quick enough off the line of scrimmage to create the necessary separation to use his instinctive body positioning abilities, to box out defenders and make contested catches. With a well-built lower body and his recognized dedication in the weight room, Chase should continue bullying cornerbacks at the NFL level. Chase is also known as a ”˜ball magnet with sticky hands’, with the ability to make his hands catch-ready instantly.

Chase should experience immediate success at the NFL level, as he is reunited with his QB at LSU, Joe Burrow, who was selected first overall by the Bengals in last year’s draft. He should fit in immediately into the Bengals’ offense, as they utilize many of the same schemes Burrow and Chase employed at LSU. Chase has also previously played against at least 10 cornerbacks currently in the NFL, including Cowboys CB, Trevon Diggs, who Chase torched for a long touchdown in a 2019 LSU showdown against Alabama.

While there have been many top WR draft picks who failed to live up to expectations in the NFL, (I’m talking about you David Terrell, Charles Rogers and Justin Blackmon, to name a few), Chase appears to possess the talent and desire to succeed at the professional level. While the Bengals have never won a Superbowl and have often been mired in mediocrity since joining the NFL in 1968, adding the 2021 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is an excellent start on the path do redemption. Jim Nantz announcing “Burrows to Chase for the touchdown” should be music to the ears of Bengals fans for many years to come.

[1] https://www.rotoballer.com/player-news/jamarr-chase-the-top-receiving-prospect/858750

Watch out for the MIKE

“If it’s Dallas, I’m crying.”

Micah Parsons wasn’t talking to anybody in particular when he uttered this. In a tense room full of family and friends, Parsons’ lifelong dream of playing in the NFL, and for the Cowboys no less, was willing itself right through him on national television. And when Parsons’ phone finally rang, he did as he said he would do. When Jerry Jones told Parsons that he was turning in his card, Parsons wept.

As a freshman at Penn St, Parsons was switched from defensive end to middle linebacker (MIKE) by coach James Franklin. And even though he only started one game for the Nittany Lions, Parsons led the team in tackles with 82. His incredible ability to adapt, to change gears and learn a whole new role, while still performing at the highest of levels, is why Parsons will be crowned the NFL’s Rookie Defensive Player of the Year in 2021. 

There is this play from the Ohio St. game back in 2019. Big 10 rivalry game with lots of implications. You can Google it for yourself. The game is still in reach for the Nittany Lions. The ball is snapped and Parsons engages an offensive lineman. J.K. Dobbins is handed the ball. Parsons has almost powered past the lineman, so Dobbins starts to cut it back to the right. The lineman, obviously realizing the battle is lost, grabs the charging linebacker out of desperation. Parsons, being mugged and now twisted, begins reaching for Dobbins. While being dragged to the ground, and with just the use of his right arm and hand, Parsons slams down on the ball and strips it from Dobbins causing a turnover. The play never ended up being a factor in the loss for the Nittany Lions, but it was a factor for Parsons’ highlight reel. It showed just how fast, powerful, and determined he was. 

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Parsons’ game is his production. He is simply a machine on the field. After leading the team in tackles as a freshman, he repeated that feat as a sophomore. Parsons tallied 109 tackles, 14 of them for a loss, with five sacks and five turnovers. The middle linebacker with extraordinary physical talent and football IQ, became the Butkus-Fitzgerald Linebacker of the Year as well as a consensus All-American. Parsons finished his collegiate career as the 2019 Cotton Bowl Classic defensive most valuable player with 14 tackles and two forced fumbles. He opted out of the 2020 season due to Covid-19 concerns, but his draft ticket was already punched. 

An exercise that NFL experts like to engage in with rookies is trying to identify professional comparisons. I must admit that I too enjoy this. For Parsons’, I chose Baltimore Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen as a comparison. Both are fast, strong, and smart. As a rookie with the Ravens, Queen excelled as a playmaker on defense. He tallied 106 tackles, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, one interception, and one touchdown. In short, Queen was a rookie in name only. This is the exact role that Parsons will take on as a Cowboy. With his 6-foot-3, 245-pound frame, combined with a freakish 4.39 40 speed, Parsons’ will be the Cowboys’ playmaker on the defensive side of the ball. In a division that features running backs Saquon Barkley, Antonio Gibson, and Miles Sanders, Parsons’ pedigree will not only be put to the test, it will be validated with the NFL defensive Rookie of the Year award in 2021. 

The post Who will be the top rookie in the NFL? appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: CJ Krause

We are in Dynasty Christmas! The NFL draft has just ended and rookie drafts are just beginning. All the prepping and planning and the draft totally went as we all thought”¦.. not. Many shocks and surprises and odd landing spots. I hate to be negative, but here is a dose of reality coming your way. If you drafted pre-NFL draft or have these guys in Devy, it might be time to get out while the gettin’ is good.

Rashod Bateman- WR Baltimore Ravens

One of my favorite pre-draft prospects, Bateman went to what I believe to be the 2^nd worst landing spot for 2021 (just behind Philadelphia). Bateman was already losing steam in the dynasty community when at his pro day he measured in 2 inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than previously reported. That didn’t stop him from getting 1^st round draft capital though. We love to see that because it opens doors for a sell.

Baltimore only passed the ball 42.5% of the time in 2020, making them, for the second consecutive year, the least pass-happy team in the NFL. This does not bode well for Bateman, who is most likely starting out at best the second receiving option behind Mark Andrews. Bateman is currently going as the 4^th wide receiver off the board in rookie drafts, and I would be looking to find the Bateman truther in my league and get out.

Amari Rodgers- WR Green Bay Packers

With the Aaron Rodgers situation seemingly showing that Aaron will not be in Green Bay come 2021, this is a definite downgrade for 3^rd round pick Amari Rodgers. The good news is Amari’s role seems secure being the slot receiver for the Green Bay Packers, who are severely lacking in that department. The bad news is he may have Jordan Love throwing him the ball.

As of now, little is known of Love, who was the Packers’ 2020 1^st round pick. But, reports throughout the 2020 season indicate Love was not performing up to expectations in practices and was farther behind the curve than what Green Bay expected when they drafted him. That uncertainty and a prospect that wasn’t amongst the top recruits in the 2021 class is enough to warrant a sell while he is still tied to Aaron Rodgers.

Michael Carter- RB New York Jets

Leading up to the draft, it was assumed the Jets were going to pick up a running back. The New York Jets decided to forgo the Big 3 running backs in Harris, Etienne, and Williams to instead wait until day 3 to once again draft a running back in Michael Carter. Carter is walking into a backfield with his main competition being the ghost of Tevin Coleman and La’mical Perine. Coleman’s last year was coming off his worst pro season, in which he only played 8 games for the San Francisco 49ers.

In those games, he had 28 rushing attempts for 53 yards which averaged a 1.9 ypc average and 0 touchdowns. NOT GOOD. Perine couldn’t get past the ancient one Frank Gore to have a meaningful rookie campaign. Perine played in 10 games in which he had 64 rushing attempts for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns. Almost double the yards per carry as Coleman but still NOT GOOD. So the stage is set for Carter to be able to overtake the backfield, but the concerns are (1) he has the same draft capital as Perine; (2) he never had a full backfield to himself, and (3) at his pro-day ran a 4.54 40 yards dash which on his speed score based on his 201-pound frame makes him a 28^th percentile athlete. All signs point to another bust for the Jets RB room and this is one I’m trying to get away from at his current price.

There you have it, three rookies you should be looking to get off your roster and be looking to acquire more proven assets or future rookies pick to try again.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @KidFlashFF and hit me up with any questions!

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By: Caleb Holfolth

With the 30th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills selected Gregory Rousseau out of Miami. Rousseau was formerly known as a potential top ten pick before he opted out of the 2020 college football season and tested poorly at Miami’s pro day. Rousseau has a lone season of college football under his belt. As there is concern that comes with his limited experience, that lone season was one of the best seasons a defensive lineman has had for the University of Miami. With 15.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 54 tackles Rousseau in similar company to names such as Warren Sapp, Calais Campbell, and Danny Stubbs. Standing 6-7 and 265-pounds Rousseau has the physical tools that defensive coordinators drool over and offensive coordinators dread. If you need some perspective just look at this picture that the Buffalo Bills posted on Twitter. 

While there were thirteen defensive players drafted before Rousseau, he plays one of the better positions if you are concerned about him winning rookie of the year. Rousseau is a defensive end by label however due to his size, ability, and experience moving across the line he could play both defensive end and defensive tackle. This opens up opportunities for Rousseau to get on the field for Buffalo. While he may not be a definitive three-down player yet considering he is widely known as a raw prospect with elite physical traits. Rousseau can still make a really solid impact. Just looking back on his lone college year where he produced 15.5 sacks Rousseau certainly has a knack for rushing the passer. To see what type of production is necessary for Rousseau to have a solid chance at rookie of the year here are the previous two winners who happen to be pass rushers. 

2020: Chase Young (WFT) 🡪 44 Tackles, 10 TFL,7.5 Sacks, 4 FF, 3 FR, 4 Passes Defended

2019: Nick Bosa (SF) 🡪 47 Tackles, 16 TFL, 9 Sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 1 Interception, 2 Passes Defended

If Rousseau were to win defensive rookie of the year, he would have to pull similar stat lines to both what Young and Bosa were able to do in their first seasons. While it is unlikely Rousseau may have a better chance than half the defensive players drafted ahead of him. While college and the National Football League are essentially two different sports if Rousseau’s pass-rushing ability translates, he can do it. Rousseau had his 15.5 sacks in only 13 games for Miami. For the Bills, Rousseau will have 17 games to accumulate sacks and other statistics. 

If you look at what Young did last season Rousseau will only have to have a sack in less than half the games, he plays in to be in contention. What helps Rousseau compared to the other pass rushers drafted is that he has the versatility to be a very good pass rusher both inside at defensive tackle and defensive end. With his size, Rousseau could end up as a mismatch for many opposing offensive lines allowing Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott and Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier to move Rousseau all around the defensive line. 

Another asset to a potential defensive rookie of the year campaign will be his length. Rousseau is extremely tall with long limbs. This will help him not only keep distance from offensive lineman but also make some tackles behind and around the line of scrimmage that smaller defensive ends may not be able to make. Rousseau has not shown much ability to be an elite run defender, but you can guarantee that defending the run will be one of the first things Rousseau works on when he arrives at training camp. 

If Rousseau can put together a 7-9 sack season with the solid run defense he may be in contention for the award. While it is unlikely to fully translate to the NFL, we saw a ridiculous sack artist in college if a majority of that skill translates Rousseau can easily end up with at least 6 sacks this season. Where Bosa and Young won the awards was their impact on the game outside of the sacks they had that season. That is almost the most important aspect for Rousseau in the DROY race. If Rousseau can be a positive asset against the run, it may be a pleasant surprise to many but considering his physical traits it certainly can happen. 

While Rousseau winning defensive rookie of the year would not be on many people’s radars, there is one thing that may help Rousseau which probably will not be talked about. The Buffalo Bills could face three rookie quarterbacks (Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, and Zach Wilson) in addition to Tua Tagovailoa who played limited snaps as a rookie last season. In addition to those young players, there are multiple teams on the Bills schedule with uncertain situations at quarterbacks such as the Houston Texans, Washington Football Team, New Orleans Saints, and Carolina Panthers. All this essentially means that Buffalo will be facing a high number of teams with either young or not very good quarterbacks. This often opens the door to sacks for defensive players because the lack of experience or talent can cause quarterbacks to hold onto the ball too long or take bad sacks. While this is all speculation and possibility instead of certain it could contribute to Rousseau having a couple of sacks on his resume that were not a direct result of a great pass rush. 

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the role Rousseau will play on the Bills defense in 2021. However, with last season’s sack leader for Buffalo only having 5.5 sacks Rousseau could be in for a lot of playing time this season. While he will not be one of the favorites going into the 2021 season Rousseau is a sleeper to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. 

The post Why Gregory Rousseau can win Defensive Rookie of The Year appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

by Michael Obermuller

The lead-up to the NFL Draft is a sports process like no other. The speculation, the intrigue, the misinformation and strategy used by different franchises and general managers. Considering the diverse crop of quarterback talent available in 2021, this offseason has been as wild as ever. I mean, just look at this curveball from Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer a few days before draft night.

Trevor Lawrence has been the consensus number one pick for what feels like years, and Jags owner Shad Khan has seemed pretty intent on marketing the rebirth of the franchise around the Clemson star, so why then is Meyer still choosing between three players at No. 1 overall?

It could just be due diligence from a first year NFL head coach, or maybe Lawrence to Jacksonville isn’t as much of a lock as most people thought. After all, there is certainly no reason to play mind-games with opposing GM’s when you’re the one picking first. Yet here we are left with this mysterious quote.

Don’t you worry though, I’ve seen through all the GM mumbo jumbo of the past few months and I’m confident in saying that I have figured out where each quarterback will end up ”” I think. Either way, I’ll give it a whirl, starting with the aforementioned Jaguars.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (No. 1)

I know, after all that in the introduction, I’m still predicting T-Law to DUVAL? That’s right, because if Meyer wants to pull off the most shocking move in recent draft memory, he can do it without my blessing. There are a couple important things to note here though. One, Meyer is not considering Mac Jones or Trey Lance in the top spot. Could this have an influence on other franchises behind him? Urban was a premier college recruiter for a long time after all. Or perhaps he has yet to gain the respect of his fellow NFL peers, and his opinion means very little to them. Two, the former Ohio State HC and program director is likely passing on his former QB, Justin Fields. Meyer actually ranked the quarterbacks in a preseason show in June of 2020, with Lawrence first in his ranks and Fields second. His reasoning at the time was this;

The Jags could certainly throw a wrench in the entire draft by taking either Zach Wilson or Fields, which would probably send Lawrence to New York at No. 2, but it’s highly unlikely and I’m not buying it. Size, accuracy, speed, raw ability, intelligence, drive ”” Lawrence is the consensus number one for a reason. I’m not saying that he’s guaranteed to be the most successful NFL product, he’s not, but he is the safe bet for Jacksonville. For the sake of all our sanities, let’s move on and assume this sticks.

2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson (No. 2)

GM Joe Douglas and the New York Jets have traded 2018 first round pick Sam Darnold, so yes they are 100 percent taking a quarterback at two (for those who haven’t been paying attention). They have been linked to the BYU Cougars signal-caller more and more since Week 17, and I personally don’t see this changing on Thursday night. Wilson checks all the boxes for the Jets. He is an accurate passer and a competitive winner (albeit against lesser competition), known for his on-the-fly decision-making and pocket presence as well as an arm that throws just as far on the move as it does standing upright. Wilson has drawn recent comparisons to Patrick Mahomes for some of these intangible traits, but there’s a contingent of fans that still have doubts that scouts and GM’s are once again sleeping on in-your-face talent.

If Fields can translate his OSU skillset to the pros, it wouldn’t be the first time that the best and brightest NFL minds in the game are totally wrong. I mean he did run a 4.44 forty with a 70.2 completion percentage in 2020. For the record, as you’ll see throughout this article, Fields is my personal QB1 in this class, but that doesn’t mean he appeals to the teams picking in the top three.

3. San Francisco 49ers: Mac Jones (No. 3)

Is the infamous “smokescreen tactic” being utilized by Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch and the San Francisco 49ers? It’s quite possible, in fact Joe Douglas and the Jets could be using it too for all we know. If Fields truly is the quarterback with the most upside potential, it would make sense that every GM behind the Jaguars is trying to keep Meyer off their trail by talking up Wilson, Jones and Lance. At the same time, it seems even more likely that the NFL brass are once again scared off by an Ohio State product who has been labeled as a runner that struggles with his progressional reads. If Lawrence and Wilson do indeed go one-two, Fields should be the pick at three in my opinion, but he may not be according to reports.

There’s something fishy about this developing story, because Jones and Lance couldn’t be more different as prospects. I can’t deny that Mac Jones makes sense as Shanahan’s favorite option. The Niners HC has highlighted his on-field and NFL-ready intelligence, citing that the Alabama product is the win-now choice for a team that was in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Jones is also the most similar to the quarterbacks that have flourished in Shanahan’s system in the past (Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo). Lance on the other hand makes me scratch my head. He’s from a small program that did not play against NFL-type talent, he’s not game-ready by most estimations, and he’s athletic rather than accurate or experienced. The fact that San Francisco is torn between these two, but not interested in the player that is pretty much the combination of both (Fields) is odd to say the least. For these reasons, I do think there’s a chance that the 49ers are under-selling Fields on purpose, but I’ll begrudgingly stick with Jones here anyway because of how well he fits the Shanahan mold.

4. TRADE ”” Denver Broncos: Trey Lance (No. 4)

Some have the Atlanta Falcons taking Lance at four, but in the end I think Arthur Smith’s new offense stands pat with the reliability of Matty Ice for a couple more seasons and trades down to reconstruct this roster from the inside out. That process may not start with an inexperienced QB, but it could begin with a haul of present and future draft picks. The next question is their trade partner, and although it has not been mentioned as much as a New England or Washington Football Team, the Denver Broncos are my under-the-radar candidate to make the jump from ninth to fourth. George Paton is taking over as GM for the Broncos, and he may try and make a splash in his first NFL Draft having the final say.

Everything about Paton’s thinking for his first draft screams Lance to me. It’s unexpected, out-of-the-box, and hopefully solves the problem that John Elway failed at for years in the same position ”” finding a franchise quarterback. Drew Lock has yet to display any qualities that separate him from the rest of the league, so I expect Paton to jump at the opportunity to bring in someone that can compete not only with Lock, but long-term with division rivals like Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Of course, the Broncos could also go with Fields here, but I’m sticking with my theme that this inexplicable stigma drops my QB1 down to QB5. I also like the fit for Lance in Denver. He played at North Dakota State, a similar climate, and his build and physicality as a runner bear some resemblance to Elway himself. Although I’m sure Broncos fans would also take his Josh Allen comp.

5. Detroit Lions: Justin Fields (No. 7)

So where oh where will Mr. Fields land? No he won’t fall out of the top 10, and I don’t expect the Cincinnati Bengals or Miami Dolphins to trade down either when they can grab the players they covet most (Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase by all reports) at five and six. That leaves the Detroit Lions, who could choose to trade down with the Patriots or the highest bidder, but honestly why would they? The Lions roster moves have signaled a total overhaul rebuild under the new regime of Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes, and they already have enough future draft capital from the Matthew Stafford trade where they don’t need more first round picks. They need a franchise quarterback. The wrinkle that you may point out is that they also received back Jared Goff and his contract in that same deal. Let’s be honest though, Goff is a placeholder in Detroit at best. At worst, he’s a cap casualty after 2022 (when cutting him would only cost $10 million). So why not accelerate the process if Justin Fields falls into your lap?

A player with as much potential as Fields could be a dream for Holmes at No. 7 in his first NFL Draft, and the young QB could even learn under Goff as a rookie before jumpining into the NFL head-first. He can truly do it all; whether it’s his accuracy as a passer or his agility as a runner, his escapability in the pocket or strong arm on the run, his competitiveness as an premier athlete or his confidence in primetime games. I’m not sure why every team is insistent on looking past Fields, and maybe it all is a smokescreen and he goes top three, but it just feels like the NFL scouts and decision-makers are talking themselves into passing on another superstar.

The post Landing Spots for All 5 of the Top QB Prospects appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

Draft day is just over a day away and the anticipation of what each NFL franchise will do has all fans excited! The first round of the NFL draft goes live at 8:00 PM ET from Cleveland. The draft is back in person after a remote and virtual draft last year. The commissioner will be back on stage greeting and shaking hands with the future stars of the NFL.

The Jaguars have been on the clock for months. They hold the first pick of this year’s draft and it is all but done in the eyes of everyone. Could they shock the world and really shake things up? Maybe but it is unlikely! The prospect everyone penciled in for Jacksonville and the number one overall pick of this year’s draft is Trevor Lawrence, from Clemson.

For the first time in franchise history, the Jaguars will have the number one pick. This is pivotal for the franchise and the future of their newly signed head coach Urban Meyer. Meyer is testing his luck in the NFL for the first time after winning multiple NCAA Football Championships and coming out of retirement. Meyer won National Championships at both Florida and Ohio State in the past. He has plenty of championship pedigree in the college ranks. Meyer has tallied 187 wins in 17 NCAA seasons as a head coach. Meyer will start off his NFL tenure with a high caliber QB in Trevor Lawrence.

Why Lawrence is a sure fire number one pick can be seen in his football career dating back to high school. Lawrence broke the Georgia high school record for yards and touchdowns in his senior year, records previously held by Deshaun Watson. He broke these records while competing versus another high profile quarterback in this class in Justin Fields, who grew up 20 miles away from Lawrence. Lawrence followed Watson to the University of Clemson. In his freshman season, he led the Tigers to a National Championship. Lawrence led the Tigers in a route over Alabama. The next season Lawrence made it to the College Football Championship again but lost to Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers. His junior year Clemson lost to Ohio State in the semifinals.

Lawrence’s college career is full of gaudy numbers. In three seasons as a starter, he tallied a record of 34-2. Lawrence completed 66.6% of his passes for 10,098 total yards. He has a career passer rating of 164.3 with 90 career passing touchdowns to 17 interceptions. He wasn’t just a pure passer he has the ability to run and make big plays with his legs outside the pocket. Lawrence rushed for 943 yards for an average of 4.1 yards per carry and 18 touchdowns. We all saw his running ability in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl where he broke off a 67 yard touchdown run.

Of course, with all the numbers come awards and accolades. Lawrence has plenty of All-Honors from all of his seasons. He finished second in Heisman voting last year as well as a finalist for the Maxwell, O’Brien, and Camp Player of the Year Awards.

Lawrence is regarded as the ultimate NFL prototype in today’s game. With rare size, mobility, speed, awareness, arm strength, and accuracy Lawrence is set to play a huge role in the Jaguars future. Mel Kiper graded Lawrence as his fourth highest quarterback ever and the highest since Andrew Luck. The experts say Lawrence is an Elway, Luck, Manning type of player.

Lawrence is a smooth operator in the pocket, his awareness and athleticism allow him to move in the pocket and he uses his eyes and arm talent to make plays. He works well under pressure and can beat you outside the pocket. His experience in big games vs high quality competition gives NFL teams a clear view of his ability on the field.

Off the field, Lawrence doesn’t raise any red flags. Last year he missed a few games with a positive covid test. He was on the sideline engaged in the game and helping his teammates and team in whatever fashion he was able to. He showed another phase of his toughness and football spirit by having his pro day on February 12^th. He was scheduled for labrum surgery on his non-throwing shoulder on February 16^th. He’s expected to make a full recovery before camp and get ready for his rookie season.

Lawrence will make it four straight years a quarterback is picked number one overall. The Jaguars are rebuilding a team and former pro bowl receiver DJ Chark will be excited with his new signal caller. Of course, there are no guarantees of becoming a superstar in the NFL but Lawrence is an insanely talented prospect and one of great value for the Jaguars.

The second overall pick belongs to the New York Jets. A team that also is looking for a future leader at the quarterback position and one with a new first time NFL head coach. Robert Saleh was signed as the Jets new head coach back in January. Saleh has been an NFL coach on the defensive side of the ball since 2005. Most recently he was the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers starting in 2017. With a new defensive coach and at the time a young quarterback the Jets were looking at prospects in the playmaking and defensive side of the ball. However, a lot has changed since January.

The Jets traded away Sam Darnold to the Panthers earlier this month. Darnold was supposed to be the savior of the Jets after being drafted third overall in 2018. Without a quarterback, the Jets are expected to draft Zach Wilson with the second overall pick.

The Jets have been linked to Wilson since his pro day at BYU. Wilson made some high level throws including a viral throw that may have started a trend in the following pro days. Wilson is a gunslinging quarterback prospect with the talent to make big explosive plays off schedule. Wilson broke out in his final season at BYU with many plays of this type. Wilson led BYU to an 11-1 in his junior season. He threw for 3692 yards, 33 touchdowns to 3 interceptions while completing 73.5% of his passes. The completion percentage ranked second in FBS last year and he broke Steve Young’s BYU record. He also used his rushing ability for 235 yards and 10 scores. Surprisingly to some Wilson does have Hawaiian ancestry and was named a co-recipient of the 2020 Polynesian College Football Player of the Year.

What the experts like about Wilsons 2020 tape is a vast improvement in play from previous years combined with explosive plays and the ability to execute tight window throws on and off schedule. Some of those tight window throws come with a lot of risks although only three went as turnovers scouts would like a higher level of decision making in the next level. His mobility kept defenders honest, he’s able to slide in the pocket and make accurate throws deep as well as good decisions while scrambling. His deep ball accuracy was over 50% and he gave big receivers plenty of opportunities to win 50-50 balls.  

Although BYU didn’t face elite completion Wilson was able to deliver the goods to show he’s an NFL caliber player. In the cougars lone loss vs Coastal Carolina another group of five school that was ranked Wilson played well but showed some holes in decision making and accuracy. He’s got the tools and ability to overcome those struggles and the Jets are likely to make him the second overall pick.

Even though Wilson will go after Lawrence some think Wilson will be the better NFL quarterback. Crediting his accuracy and playmaking. Gang Green get ready to welcome Zach Wilson after booing the commissioner.

The top two picks are nearly 100% locked in by all. The draft really starts at number three with the 49ers. Thursday night will be highly entertaining and the anticipation and excitement will grow more till your team is officially on the clock.

The post Why Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are the top two picks appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By: Marcel Boudreau

5 Rookies to Avoid

When drafting rookies for Dynasty or Re-draft leagues, it’s always important to nail your picks. This article is focused more on a dynasty approach, but there are some take home messages for any type of fantasy football league. The purpose of this is to highlight rookies to avoid during this year’s draft. One of the best strategies is to pick out the players that have bust potential matched with moderate ceilings. 

Pooka Williams RB – Rookie ADP 3.06 – 5’9” ”“ 175lbs

Pooka has BLAZING speed, is extremely elusive and has amazing acceleration. His ceiling is capped because his body is not built to withstand more than 8-12 carries a game. Pooka is the same height as Aaron Jones, yet weighs 33lbs less, which is not encouraging for a position that takes constant hits. If he lands in an offense that runs an outside zone, he has a chance at fantasy relevancy. However, trends are a thing, and he would be a complete outlier if successful at his size. Looking at Pooka’s college averages, he has gotten progressively worse every year across all relevant stats. He has the potential to be a great punt returner and at best, an explosive 3^rd down, change of pace back. A Tarik Cohen or James White type of career is his absolute ceiling. 

Tutu Atwell WR ”“ Rookie ADP 3.05 ”“ 5’ 8.5” ”“ 155lbs 

Tutu gets open because he is fast. Some people like to say “I don’t care how he gets open; I just care that he is open” are fooling themselves. NFL corners and DBs are getting faster and are absolute specimens, most will be able to stay close enough to Tutu to at least semi-contest the catch. Atwell is not as sharp of a route runner as he could be, he has a terrible high-point, small catch radius, struggles in contested catches, cannot break tackles and has a history of drops. At his size, to excel at the next level he would need to standout in a second and maybe a third variable outside of speed, which he does not. This leads to expect a potential career as an amazing kick returner, but a relevant fantasy option from the WR position is not the case. Tutu would need a top 5 QB in terms of accuracy and throwing the WR open to have a shot at fantasy relevancy, and banking on landing spot over talent is a risky, short lived experience. 

Trey Lance QB ”“ SF Rookie ADP 1.06 ”“ 6’ 3” ”“ 224lbs 

Hot take. Trey Lance is a shot in the dark rookie pick. He’s had 1 year of relevant production playing Division 1 tier 2 college teams. Lance has never played vs. a top 25 college team in his career so the variables are unknown what he can do against stiff competition. His 2019 season put him on the NFL radar, after throwing a 28 TDs and 0 INTs, and rushing for 1100 yards and 14 TDs. Lance did what he was supposed to do and dominated weaker players and teams. A noteworthy concern is the comparisons to Josh Allen’s path. When comparing the tape of both QBs against similar competition, there’s not even a glimmer of doubt that Josh Allen was the better player, even as a runner. 

The most under-talked about move, is that Lance was known for not throwing any INTs in 2019, and if he could have a similar performance in 2020, his draft stocks would shoot up, as it was not a “one-year wonder” situation. In 2020, Lance came out and threw an INT in the first game of 2020, then followed it up by sitting the season due to COVID. This seems extremely fishy”¦ almost like an agent got in his ear and told him that his stock was high enough, that a mediocre season would hurt it, and to use COVID as an excuse to dismiss the season and have his stock be relied on his 2019 season. Lance had all the rights in the world to sit out 2020 due to COVID, but the skeptical piece is that if Lance was concerned about COVID, like most players, he would have decided to dismiss 2020 entirely. Instead, he went ahead and played in a game, threw the INT and then dismissed his season”¦ 

Again, Trey Lance is worth a rookie pick, just not the 1.06. Lance is deserving of an early 2^nd round pick as of now, but his landing spot and draft stock have a chance of changing that. 

Jermar Jefferson RB ”“ Rookie ADP 3.03 ”“ 5’ 10” ”“ 206lbs 

Jermar has the ideal size and contact balance which masks his lack of athleticism and explosiveness. He finished with the slowest 3-cone time of the top 25 RB prospects, which speaks a lot about his lack of elusiveness. Jefferson has a lot of similarities to Royce Freeman, in the sense that both guys are incredibly hard to take down but fail to have anything else standout in terms of skills. Jermar has decent vision, and is a great pass blocker, but is a below average pass catcher who lacks burst. Jermar does initiate contact first, which tends to wear defenses out, but also brings up breakdown injury risk. There are other RBs that have much more upside, and a fall in the draft would not be surprising.  

Warren Jackson WR ”“ 6’ 6” ”“ 219lbs 

The hype train on Warren Jackson needs to stop. Jackson is extremely slow off the line, does not have breakaway speed, and struggles in run blocking. Warren Jackson might be the next N’Keal Harry as they both excel in jump ball situations, but between the 20s, they fail to serve a whole lot of purpose. Jackson’s floor is extremely low as he is not a possessional WR. 

The post Fantasy Football: 5 2021 Rookies to Avoid appeared first on Pro Football Mania.

By Preston W (@FF_Engineer_)

Day by day, we are getting closer to the draft. Fantasy analysts (myself included) are constantly trying to predict landing spots for rookie skill players. We’re often looking at how the value of a rookie wide receiver will grow based on their landing spot, so I decided to mix things up and look at how the value of our current veteran quarterbacks can grow, based on the addition of a rookie wide receiver.

Just one year ago, Dak Prescott was greeted by the addition of rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, while fantasy managers were greeted with elite fantasy production from Prescott in his first five games, prior to his injury. Not only do we want these rookie wide receivers going to an offense that can support them volume wise for fantasy purposes, but we want our quarterbacks to benefit from these additions as well. So let’s take a look at three quarterbacks who could use another pass catcher.

Lamar Jackson

Alright, so maybe your initial reaction to one of the studs in this wide receiver class going to Baltimore isn’t that pleasant. I’ll admit, initially I wasn’t the biggest proponent for this idea either, but recently I’ve had a change of heart. This is due to the concept that Marquise Brown is not the ideal alpha wide receiver for Baltimore, and he’s better suited as the team’s WR2. Yes, Lamar Jackson and Hollywood Brown can both benefit from the addition of a dominant wide receiver in this draft. I think people all too often mistake Jackson’s elite rushing ability for a lack of passing ability, and while last year he wasn’t as dominant in the passing game, his 2019 numbers paint a different picture:

Lamar Jackson Season Stats

It’s no secret that Jackson’s fantasy production took a dip last season – an 82.9 point dip to be exact. It was literally the difference between a historic QB1 season, and finishing as the QB10 overall. Jackson’s rushing was down as well, but not nearly as down as his passing numbers. In fact, only 24% of Jackson’s decrease in fantasy points scored was due to his rushing production. Jackson has elite mobility for a quarterback, but he still has an incredible arm. An arm that led the league in passing touchdowns in 2019. An arm that could benefit from the addition of another weapon.

So who could Lamar Jackson’s next receiving threat be? One rookie that could be available for Baltimore at 1.27 is Terrace Marshall Jr. out of LSU. Marshall is one of the few bigger-bodied receivers in this class, and he’s someone that profiles as an alpha receiver, which would be a great fit for Baltimore. However, if Baltimore goes a different direction in the first round, another player I’d be excited about Baltimore going after in the next round is Dyami Brown from UNC. Either Marshall or Brown could help revitalize Jackson’s passing game back to what it was in 2019. A solid addition to Baltimore’s receiving room would put Jackson back into the mix for finishing as the overall QB1 in 2021.

Jalen Hurts

We all know Philadelphia hasn’t made the best draft choices when it comes to the wide receiver position. Between drafting Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson in 2020, and taking JJ Arcega-Whiteside over DK Metcalf in 2019, there’s been some disappointing moments. Perhaps these receivers simply couldn’t live up to their values due to the poor quarterback play over the past two seasons. On the other hand, Philadelphia has always heavily relied upon their tight ends in the passing game with Carson Wentz at quarterback. But how does Jalen Hurts compare when targeting his wide receivers compared to his tight ends?

2020 Philadelphia Passing Offense Splits

For starters, Hurts isn’t the same system quarterback as Wentz was. Hurts targets his wide receivers at a higher rate, so if Philadelphia wants to give Hurts a real shot, they should turn their focus towards growing their three and four wide receiver sets. It also shows that simply Hurts doing his thing and more frequently targeting his wide receivers results in a more efficient passing game for Philadelphia. If they want to make Hurts work, they should work on building the offense around him.

So what are some possibilities for Philadelphia? Based on their part in the block buster trade, in which they moved from 1.06 back to 1.12, I think their intentions are clear that they plan on taking one of the top receivers. It also shows that they aren’t interested in taking top tight end prospect Kyle Pitts. At pick 12, the best overall option that should be available for Philadelphia is Jaylen Waddle from Alabama. Philadelphia and Hurts could really benefit from Waddle’s explosiveness and deep threat ability. Of course, if Ja’Marr Chase happened to fall to Philadelphia at 12, that would be another excellent addition for their offense.

Jameis Winston

I know this one is of the nature of speculation since we don’t know who the starter will be next season. Since we are already exploring best cases for fantasy purposes, there’s no better team to address than one deciding between Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. From what we’ve seen, Jameis Winston should provide a decent boost to New Orleans’ offense, compared to Hill. I touched on this in my last article regarding Alvin Kamara. Regardless, as of now Winston’s only solid receiver is Michael Thomas, so adding in another target for Winston could prove useful for his fantasy value. Looking back, there was a certain point in Winston’s career where gaining a wide receiver named Chris Godwin boosted Winston’s fantasy value. Let’s take a look:

Jameis Winston Season Stats

Winston scoring an additional 1.9 points per game adds up over time. That seemingly small boost can propel someone like Winston from a mid-range QB2 to a QB1. It’s clear that every aspect of Winston’s passing game and fantasy value grew when he got a solid addition to his receiving corp in Tampa. The same can be true with New Orleans. Having more mouths to feed isn’t a bad thing for a quarterback like Winston, and it isn’t a bad thing for his current elite receiver either.

So who could be on New Orleans’ draft radar? For starters, if Baltimore passes on Terrace Marshall Jr. in the first round, New Orleans should scoop Marshall right up. Marshall can complement Michael Thomas and New Orleans’ system well, setting up Winston for added success. Another solid fit for this receiving corp is Rashod Bateman out of Minnesota. Both Marshall and Bateman can provide versatility by lining up both outside and in the slot, making them great fits for New Orleans and Winston.

The post Three Quarterbacks to Benefit From a Rookie Wide Receiver appeared first on Pro Football Mania.