What is Alvin Kamara’s outlook in dynasty?

By: Adam Martin (Twitter: @thereggambler)

Why you should buy/keep Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara has been a solid choice as a number one running back in anyone’s dynasty team. He took a dip in form last year but there were contract issues and just some poor form to blame. This year he has bounced back and rushed for 932 yards and 16 touchdowns. On top of that he made a huge impact in the passing game with 756 yards and another five touchdowns. He averaged 19.7 points per game for fantasy and cumulated a total of 294.8 points to make him the number two running back.

Another massive positive for Kamara is that he signed up with New Orleans for a long time. The saying ‘follow the money’ is important when it comes to fantasy football as much as NFL football. If the team is willing to pay a player lots of money, chances are, he is going to feature heavily. Last year Kamara signed a five-year deal worth $75m keeping him with the team till 2025. The team does have a potential out of his contract in 2024 but that still means he will be in New Orleans for many years to come.

The Saints are also heavily invested in the offensive line. Cesar Ruiz may have been the worst culprit, but he was a first-round pick in 2020 who should compete with a veteran this training camp. Ryan Ramzyk and Terron Armstead are both franchise tackles who pose All-Pro caliber. 

A very underlying reason for Kamara being potentially more efficient in the run game lies with Taysom Hill (just not the way you think). We may see a higher dosage of the bell-cow Kamara with Taysom at QB. Yes, we saw Latavius Murray torching defenses in the Broncos game, but Kamara missed a lot of practice that week (hence, why LV was getting the screens, too)

Why you should sell/avoid Alvin Kamara

One of the biggest worries for Alvin Kamara is what the future holds with Drew Brees and the QB position. Brees is now 41 and it looks like he will be retiring once the playoffs are done this year. Currently the Saints have got Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston in the QB room. However, Hill is only under contract till 2022 and Winston is a free agent after this season. Also, the Saints have the ability to bring in a QB during the draft to add more uncertainty to the position.

Chances are Taysom Hill will be the guy next year as there will be a $16m cap hit if they get rid of him. This is a concern for the usage of Kamara, especially in the passing game. When Brees got injured earlier this season and Taysom Hill came in it affected Kamara’s yardage a lot. During weeks 11-14 Kamara’s passing game yards were 0,-2,9 and 44 with Taysom Hill as QB. The eight weeks before Brees has his injury Kamara was averaging 70.6 yards in the passing game. The biggest concern for Kamara owners is that with Brees this year he averaged 27.4 points per game but without him it was 14.2.

The Verdict

If you’re playing dynasty you always need to be one step ahead of the game and this is why you need to have concerns about Alvin Kamara. It might sound crazy as he is the number two running back for the year but there are warning signs now. Kamara is about to lose his star QB and we don’t know who is going to be the new guy. Also, Kamara will be 26 going into next season and running backs do start to decline around that age. The drop in his average points when Drew Brees is out is alarming for his future. 

If you own Kamara it would make the most sense to wait and see what happens with the Saints QB position. If you want to sell him then you should be looking for a young running back like Jonathan Taylor or Cam Akers and a top-end draft pick. If you want to buy Kamara, then he will be expensive and you have to understand the risks that come with bringing in a 26-year-old running back.