What is the dynasty outlook for Brandon Aiyuk?

By: Justin Frye

Brandon Aiyuk is a very controversial dynasty player at the moment. Everyone has seen flashes at the end of 2020 and 2021, but also the disappearing act he had in the first half of 2021. What is real with him, and what is going to happen on his own team this offseason? He’s a young stud WR in an offense with one of the most creative play-callers in the league, but let’s talk about the situation and highlight what could be.

What does San Francisco do at QB in 2022?

I write the question out but I think if you play dynasty fantasy football, you already know the answer. With everything the 49ers gave up to go up in the draft for Trey Lance, he’s got to be the guy their next season. He understandably struggled some as a rookie, making the jump from FCS level competition straight to the NFL after barely playing his final year thanks to COVID.

Lance saw significant playing time in three games this season, totaling 70 pass attempts (23 per game) and only 40 completions (13 per game). Obviously, the hope is that those go up, as his final game in week 17 was significantly better than his two games earlier in the year. 13 of the 70 passes were intended for Aiyuk (18.6%), which is slightly higher than with Jimmy Garoppolo (16.1%).

What’s a Worst Case Scenario for Brandon Aiyuk?

For 2022, what does a bad year look like for Brandon Aiyuk? The key to his range of outcomes is ironing out his consistency issues. Weeks 1-8 of 2021, Aiyuk was the WR91 for fantasy, scoring only 4.2 half PPR points per game over that span. His pace over that span was 59 targets, 33 catches, 363 yards, and 3 touchdowns over a FULL SEASON.

If Lance only averages 25 or so pass attempts per game and Aiyuk is firmly third in the pecking order behind George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, it’ll be difficult for Aiyuk to be a consistent fantasy asset. Add in the rushing upside in the red zone for Lance and 49ers RBs, and that removes the touchdown upside to make up for low volume.

What’s a Best Case Scenario for Brandon Aiyuk?

Weeks 9-18 Aiyuk completely turned his season around, coming in as the WR13 in that span, scoring 11.3 half ppr fantasy points per game. His pace over that time was 104 targets, 73 catches, 1,165 yards, and 7 touchdowns over a full season. Which Aiyuk is closer to reality? That answer is huge for what to do with Aiyuk going forward.

If you took Lance’s 3 game sample and Aiyuk’s 18.6% target share and spread it over the season, Aiyuk would be looking at only 74 targets over the season, which feels like a floor for him. Lance showed real growth in his final start, and that held for Aiyuk’s performance, but even that would be over 6 pass attempts per game less then any team attempted in 2021.

Realistically, about 30 pass attempts is a very conservative 2022 projection, and that would lead to 95 targets at Aiyuk’s 18.6% target share. If that is a realistic lower-end projection, that WR13 over the second half feels fairly attainable for Aiyuk in 2022, especially if both young players show off some growth in the offseason.

While news like the tweet above gives me hope, I think 2022 will be another inconsistent roller coaster for Aiyuk as the third option in a run-heavy offense. Longer-term I still have high hopes for what Lance will become, and Aiyuk is a big part of his development as a downfield weapon. Don’t sell for less than the full top 15 dynasty WR value, but don’t expect 2022 to be the year Aiyuk finally finds consistency.