Is Justin Hebert or Joe Burrow more likely to be crowned MVP?

By: Jake Rajala

The AFC conference displays many young, potent quarterbacks. There are two QBs that fascinate me the most in 2022: Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. Burrow is of course coming off an AFC championship victory, while Herbert threw 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns at the ripe age of 23 last season.

I believe if both QBs slightly improve in 2022, they will both make strong cases for NFL MVP. The question is: which QB is more likely to win their first MVP in 2022? Well, let’s take a look at the case for each QB to be the best player in the NFL next season.

Justin Herbert

Herbert has nice, quiet confidence in his off-field presence. When Herbert marches onto the field, he’s ready to annihilate defenses with his big arm and ability to make accurate throws on the run. Herbert certainly has machinery that can help him put up unearthly numbers, as well.

Mike Williams (76, 1,146, 9) and Keenan Allen (106, 1,138, 6) are a Top 5 WR duo and they proved that in 2021. The Chargers will also plan to franchise tag Williams, so I really don’t expect him to go anywhere. Austin Ekeler is a fine all-purpose RB that will help Herbert in the run and pass game, as well.

It also sounds like the Chargers will bring in more weapons and personnel to Herbert’s offense this offseason. Herbert threw 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns, but they could still use an upgrade at WR3, TE1, and at numerous offensive line spots. I do believe that Herbert’s ceiling is really positive for fantasy owners of Herbert and Chargers nation.

I don’t believe Herbert’s competition in the AFC West will change noticeably. The Broncos will still have an elite defense (particularly in the secondary), the Raiders will try and replace Casey Hayward, and the Chiefs defense shouldn’t look unfamiliar. KC could lose the Honey Badger, but they will likely improve their edge rush, too.

The world seems to give Burrow an extra pat on the back for reaching the Super Bowl with a lackluster offensive line. Yet, so many fans don’t realize that Herbert was a more superb signal-caller with less firepower than Burrow in 2021.

Joe Burrow

The former LSU QB and cigar enthusiast Joe Burrow had two magical wins against his new little brother Patrick Mahomes last season. Still, he didn’t quite put up the cream of the crop stats from the 18 week season as a whole. He registered 34 passing touchdowns (eighth in NFL) and 4,611 passing yards (sixth in NFL). Those marks were both behind Justin Herbert.

Burrow was very scary with his 2021 Offensive Rookie of The Year Ja’Marr Chase last season. He will look to build off his success with Chase in 2022. As previously stated, he also has better weapons than Herbert (Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd). Higgins hauled in 1,091 yards last season and Boyd recorded 828 yards in 2021.

The Bengals had the worst pass protection in the NFL and it was evident with Burrow being the most sacked QB last season. Herbert should improve with more toys and Burrow should have more successful plays with better pass protection moving forward.

The Bengals should see weaker competition in their division and face fewer supreme pass rushers next season. I believe the Browns will lose Jadeveon Clowney and the Ravens will lose their top pass rusher last season in Justin Houston. The AFC North could likely soon feature a new QB in Pittsburgh and in Cleveland, as well.

Burrow and Herbert should both make strong cases for MVP next season if they take positive steps forward in 2022. So, who will boast a more robust case for NFL MVP next season?

Verdict

I really like the ceiling of Joe Burrow and his team’s chances of winning 12+ games next season in the AFC North. With saying that, I believe Burrow has a better opportunity than the prominent Chargers QB to win MVP next season. Herbert should throw 35+ passing touchdowns and he could throw 5,200+ passing yards, but I still don’t see his squad winning their division (AFC West). They were actually third in their division last year, plus the second place team (Raiders) beat the Chargers to make the playoffs. I expect Carr to have a Pro Bowl WR like Davante Adams or JuJu Smith-Schuster really elevating his game soon, too. There is a rumor that Tae very recently moved to Sin City, so Carr might soon have a monster addition at WR.

It will really be hard for the Chargers to make the playoffs next season in the wild AFC West. If Herbert throws 5,500+ passing yards but fails to bring the Chargers to the playoffs, he won’t have a chance of winning the MVP. There have only been two MVP winners that came from a non-playoff team (OJ Simpson in 1973 and Johnny Unitas in 1967).

The NFL world witnessed Tom Brady lead the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards last season, but Aaron Rodgers still won the MVP. A-rod was a stat machine, but he also was more efficient and he led his team to the first seed in the NFC with 13 wins. Herbert could edge out Burrow in the yards and/or touchdown category, but I believe the Bengals field general is going to be efficient and win more ball games than the Chargers QB.

The Bengals have the makeup to not only win an AFC North division that could see the Steelers and Browns take a major dip, but they have the ammunition (fourth in cap space) to also build their team significantly. If Burrow can get better pass protection, build on his connection with Chase, and lead his team to a more impressive AFC North title, I like Burrow’s chances of not only edging out Herbert for the MVP but every other QB in the NFL.