What is the dynasty outlook for Courtland Sutton?

By: Justin Frye

2019 was, so far, Courtland Sutton’s banner year in the NFL. In that year, he put up 72 catches, 1,112 yards, and 6 touchdowns in his 16 games. This with him catching passes from the likes of Joe Flacco and rookie year Drew Lock. In case you’re living under a rock, the Broncos and Seahawks agreed to a deal where Russell Wilson is going to be the Denver QB in 2022 and beyond.

Russell Wilson’s history with receivers

Over the last four seasons, Wilson has supported five top 24 finishes in fantasy points per game at the receiver position. This is despite up and down in season performances and an overall lack of passing volume. In each of his last five seasons, Seattle has been below 35 pass attempts on a per-game basis, including multiple seasons below 30. That Wilson has been able to sustain viable fantasy options is remarkable.

The Packers, where new Broncos Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett was Offensive Coordinator the last three seasons, were slightly higher than that, between 34.5 and 35.5 per game in his 3 years. While he wasn’t calling plays, Hackett was deeply involved and those tendencies are likely to be similar in Denver. Projecting that pass volume onto Wilson is exciting, as in his best year he only attempted 558 passes, which should be about where 2022 winds up.

Comparing team situations

In 2021, Sutton spent the offseason continuing his rehab from the ACL tear he suffered in his first game in 2020. Players are not usually fully recovered until closer to two years out per most medical experts. Projecting him back into the 2019 role he had is unrealistic, though, as Jerry Jeudy was drafted that offseason and Tim Patrick and Albert Okwuegbunam have both shown ability when targeted as well.

Everyone seems to be comparing Wilson’s old teammates to his new ones, and that’s a fair start but not the same. D.K. Metcalf is an athletic freak, and while Sutton is his best comparable, it’s not apples to apples. Same with Tyler Lockett to Jeudy. Wilson mainly had two guys in Seattle to target, in Denver he’s got five including RB Javonte Williams. Metcalf and Lockett saw 27% and 24% target shares in 2021, while Jeudy led Denver at 20% (in 10 games).

In 2021 for Denver, Sutton was their deep threat, averaging 15.4 yards depth of target (aDOT). Interestingly, Lockett was Wilson’s deep threat at an aDOT of 14.6. Metcalf had more targets than any other Seahawk or Bronco at 129, with an aDOT of 12.7. Looking at these, it’s a little unclear how Wilson will use his new weapons, but I imagine Sutton will see similar target volume in 2022 to 2021, just of a higher quality.

Sutton, due to the depth of his targets, sat 12th in air yards in 2021, trailing both Lockett (11th) and Metcalf (7th). Assuming he’s still used in that downfield role, I expect significant yardage and touchdown growth in 2022. Sutton ranks fifth in playerprofiler.com unrealized air yards metic with 892. Metcalf is first with 902, but on a whopping 31 additional targets. I attribute that inefficiency to a difference in QB play that will change in 2022.

What does all this mean for Sutton in 2022 and beyond?

I expect career highs in yardage and touchdowns in 2022 from both Jeudy and Sutton, and a strong overall Broncos offense. I don’t think either Jeudy or Sutton’s comparisons to either of the Seattle receivers are fair, as play wise “Sutton is closer to Lockett and Jeudy to Metcalf” in how they’re used.

If I’m picking a comparison, I like 2016 Seattle with Jeudy in the Doug Baldwin role while Sutton plays a hybrid from old Jimmy Graham and newer D.K. Metcalf. Jeudy will average an extra target on Sutton, but Sutton will have the downfield and red zone roles. So what type of stats seem likely?

110 targets, 65-70 catches, 1000-1100 yards, and probably 8 or so touchdowns, for the next few seasons. If he really connects in the red zone, could easily bump up to 12. That puts him squarely in line with Mike Williams 2021, with a ceiling of Mike Evans. Top 24 dynasty WR going forward, and a rock solid weekly WR2 with upside.