Latest dynasty outlook of Mahomes
By: Jake Rajala
The Kansas City Chiefs are paying Patrick Mahomes $45 million a season, but they made life a bit more difficult for him this offseason. Mahomes lost his favorite toy in Tyreek Hill and the Chiefs witnessed every other AFC West squad level up in the AFC West arms race.
It’s safe to say that Mahomes isn’t the 2022 MVP favorite. With that said, the question is: what is the long-term of Mahomes, and should dynasty owners of Mahomes sell him now? Well, I’m going to untwine his dynasty outlook.
The upside of Mahomes
Patty Mahomes is only 26 years old and he’s made the Pro Bowl in each of the past four seasons. He’s also thrown 37+ passing touchdowns in the past of the two seasons. Hill and Travis Kelce both caught 9 touchdowns last season. Hill is a big loss, but I really believe JuJu and MVS will help Mahomes have a nice floor moving forward.
Travis Kelce is arguably the biggest weapon for Mahomes after the departure of Hill and he should be an elite TE for at least a few more seasons. I don’t know if Mahomes will be the best QB in the AFC West moving forward, but I believe he should average at least 30 passing touchdowns a season without Hill. After Kelce retires, Mahomes may request a trade to a loaded roster.
The downside of Mahomes
The Chiefs will really miss the cheetah. Here is a closer look at how dominant he has been over the past four seasons:
- 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2017
- 1,276 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2020
- A career-high 159 targets in 2021
I don’t expect Mahomes to throw 5,000+ passing yards and 50+ passing touchdowns (in the same season in) a Tyreek Hill-less offense to say the least. Here is a closer look at how productive Mahomes was in 2019 when Hill had a below-average season.
Hill in 2019: 58-860-7
Mahomes in 2019: 4,031 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns
It’s clear that Hill has been the engine to the Chiefs offense. It won’t be easy for Mahomes to oust an MVP season in Kansas City without Hill, as shown above. Nonetheless, he will still have JuJu and MVS at the WR position to help heal the wound.
Verdict:
Hill might be on the Dolphins and it could seem earth-shattering for dynasty fanatics and Chiefs fans, but I would absolutely hold Mahomes. He should be an elite QB with his current offense (Kelce, JuJu, MVS).
The 25-year-old JuJu unleashed 1,426 yards in 2018 and he should be a 1,000+ yard WR in year one as a Chief. I am not convinced that Mahomes will be an All-Pro as a Chief, but he should be a routine Pro Bowl moving forward.
Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers are the most gifted signal-callers in the league. Mahomes will still be an elite QB for the Chiefs and he could potentially follow Russell Wilson’s path by switching teams in the post Kelce era.
