If your draft strategy going into next season is to draft wide receivers early and often you want to make sure they deliver. For the most part, the top 5 currently in ADP are all locks (Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs). On the next tier down is where you can start asking questions if a wide receiver is worth picking in that spot. Winning in fantasy is all about finding late round values and not overvaluing players that cost you if they don’t produce. With that said let’s take a look at 3 wide receivers I believe are currently overvalued.
The current ADP below IS for Half PPR scoring.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions – WR) | ADP – 15 | WR9
Amon-Ra St. Brown was one of the breakout stars from last season. The 2nd year WR from USC built nicely on his rookie campaign and finished with 106 receptions, 1,161 yards and 6 touchdowns. This was good enough for 214.6 fantasy points in Half PPR. There are a couple of stats that stick out for St. Brown. He had 146 targets and accounted for a 25.9% target share on a team that lacked real playmakers at the WR position.
Don’t get me wrong, I am still high on St.Brown but I don’t like him as an early second-round pick. The Lions brought back Marvin Jones Jr. and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs from Alabama to help bolster their offense. Jones will eat into some of Brown’s target share and I also like Kalif Raymond as a potential late-round sleeper. If I had to choose right now between Garrett Wilson (ADP 17) and Amon-Ra St. Brown, I am taking Wilson.
Davante Adams (Raiders – WR) | ADP – 13 | WR7
Only Justin Jefferson had more fantasy points last season than Davante Adams. In his first season with the Las Vegas Raiders, Adams put up gaudy numbers along with a whopping 32.3% target share. He led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 14 and finished the season with 285.5 fantasy points. Adams showed no signs of slowing down at the age of 30.
If Derek Carr were still on the Raiders I would have Adams in the top-tier of wide receivers. Carr is now with the New Orleans Saints and in steps Jimmy Garoppolo. While I do like the fit, Garoppolo is not the same arm talent as Carr. Carr looks to push the ball down the field more while Garoppolo plays more of a short to intermediate game. I expect the Raiders passing game to be more balanced next season and with that Adams numbers will drop. If I had to choose right now between A.J. Brown (ADP 14) or Davante Adams, I am grabbing Brown.
DK Metcalf (Seahawks – WR) | ADP – 33 | WR15
Last season was certainly not a letdown for D.K. Metcalf. He finished with 1,048 yards, 6 touchdowns and 181.8 fantasy points, yet we expected more. Metcalf finished behind fellow teammate Tyler Lockett in total fantasy points (195.3) and touchdowns (9). New quarterback Geno Smith looked for Metcalf often in the red zone. He had 27 red zone targets but only 5 red zone touchdowns.
Looking ahead to next season, the Seattle Seahawks added to their receiving core by drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba was selected 20th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft and I really like his upside. This receiving group is shaping up nicely but I expect Smith-Njigba to take some of those red zone targets away from Metcalf. If I had to choose right now between Deebo Samuel (ADP 36) or D.K. Metcalf, I am taking Samuel.
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