Projecting the winner of the NFC South

By: Jake Rajala and Charlie Vakassian

The Tom Brady-led Buccaneers won the NFC South in 2021. Goliath (Buccaneers) were swept by David (New Orleans Saints), but they won their division with four more victories than the closest team (Saints). 

Brady is out of the wild NFC South in 2022, so it’s clear that the Bucs aren’t the runaway NFC South favorite next season. So, who will win the Brady-less NFC South in the 2022-2023 season? Here are our favorites to win the league’s most mysterious division in the 2022 season.

New Orleans Saints (Jake): 

The New Orleans Saints have won the NFC South in four of the past five seasons. Yes, you read that correctly. They may not have Sean Payton, but they still have the Kobe Bryant-inspired Michael Thomas and likely Jameis Winston returning from injuries. They will be joining a juggernaut roster that is still in the Big Easy. Thomas was a nightmare for opposing defenses when Taysom Hill was filling in for the injured Drew Brees in 2020. 

I trust that Thomas and likely Jameis Winston will seek vengeance in 2022. If the Dennis Allen squad loses Pro Bowl LT Terron Armstead and the talented, young FS Marcus Williams in the 2022 free agency, I still don’t believe their overall talent will noticeably dip this offseason. The Saints have Andrus Peat, who can play LT. If Williams leaves, they still have Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Malcolm Jenkins at the safety position. Armstead also has been injured often for the Saints, as he’s missed 24 games in the past five seasons. They are very familiar with replacing him at the LT position.

The Saints were 5-2 with Jameis Winston (and without Cantguardmike) last season with wins over the Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and the Seattle Seahawks. It’s clear their floor with Jaboo is special. Allen’s team will also have their kicker Will Lutz returning and their 2021 first-round pick Turner returning to their stacked defensive front.

I still believe the Saints chokehold on the Bucs is a vital difference in the grand scheme of things. I will assume the Bucs don’t win 11+ games with Kyle Trask at QB next season. I believe the head-to-head matchups between the Bucs and the Saints will be important. I still know the Saints match up incredibly well against the Bucs. The Saints can rush the passer with their front four (Cam Jordan/Davenport/Onymeta/a healthy Payton Turner) and they have the elite Marshon Lattimore to always blanket Mike Evans. We witnessed the 49ers give the Rams serious issues for the past few seasons. I feel comfortable saying that the Saints are due to give Bruce Arian’s team fits for yet another season. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Charles):

The Buccaneers have certainly undergone some stark changes this offseason, with Tom Brady announcing his retirement, and several key free agents who may or may not return to the team. Rob Gronkowski is likely to join Brady in retirement. Chris Godwin, Ryan Jensen, Leonard Fournette, and Carlton Davis will all test the free-agent waters. With all that being said, Tampa Bay still has the best core out of all the NFC South Team. The defense is still incredibly rock-solid, with playmakers at each level, led by Shaq Barrett, Devin White, Antoine Winfield, and Lavonte David. Mike Evans is still as dependable as ever, and Cameron Brate is an underrated tight end. Tristan Wirfs and Ali Marpet are excellent on the offensive line. 

There are admittedly some question marks about this team, mainly what they will do at quarterback. Kyle Trask was a 2nd round pick last season and hasn’t seen enough action to make any type of judgment on him. Tampa Bay has been linked to several quarterbacks via trade this offseason, including Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers. Carson Wentz, and Deshaun Watson. Any one of those would immediately make the Bucs a division contender.

Matt Ryan is the best quarterback in the division right now, but is getting up there in age (36) and has no weapons outside of Kyle Pitts, and a weak offensive line. The Panthers are an unmitigated disaster at QB, with the albatross contract of Sam Darnold. They will likely be starting a rookie under center in Week 1. And who knows what the Saints will be doing under center. Taysom Hill is uninspiring at best, and Jameis Winston is mediocre to the core. Alvin Kamara is facing suspension, and Michael Thomas has not been able to stay on the field. Garoppolo is the name most connected to Tampa right now, and he would immediately be the second-best QB in the NFC South.

As for cap space, Tampa admittedly has very little, but with restructures to the contracts of Mike Evans, Shaw Barrett, and Donovan Smith, the Bucs save $31M against the cap for 2022. This leaves them with plenty of room to bring back some of their own free agents, as well as pursue some upgrades at positions of need. The Bucs also pick at 27 in Round 1 of the NFL Draft and can add an immediate difference-maker to the locker room. A top WR like Garrett Wilson would put fear into the other CBs of the division, or a lockdown corner like Kaiir Elam would shut down D.J Moore and fair well against the other top wideouts in the NFC South. 

Tampa already has arguably one of the better defenses in the whole NFC, and with even just an OK quarterback, they would rise to the top of this division. A front seven with Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Devin White is tough to beat. That doesn’t even include promising rookie Joe Tryon, who flashed pass-rushing upside in his first season. Give me Tampa to repeat in the South.