Which of these two 2021 draft receivers has the better outlook?
By: Jeremy Trottier
In 2021, we got to see the rookie campaigns of three separate receivers from the top 10 picks in the draft, Ja’Marr Chase (pick #5), Jaylen Waddle (pick #6), and DeVonta Smith (pick #10). While Chase was proven to be an elite player and has shown he is a top 10 receiver, Waddle and Smith battled it out for second best WR in the class. This has created a discussion to be had among NFL fans, which of these two receivers has the brighter outlook for the rest of their career?
The way I will go about finding out will include the following:
- 2021 performance (both eye test and statistically)
- Team outlook (is the QB situation good? Do they have room to grow into bigger roles?)
- Utilization (were they utilized correctly, and if not will they be in the future?)
Jaylen Waddle ”“ Miami Dolphins
First up, we have Jaylen Waddle, as previously mentioned the 6th overall pick in the 2021 class. Waddle has been absolutely phenomenal so far after his rookie season and has shown to be a reliable starter for the Dolphins, and presumably WR1 with DeVante Parker losing some snaps comparatively.
In terms of 2021 performance, Waddle had a very good rookie season. He accrued the following stats last season:
- 16 games played (all 16 started) taking 83% of snaps on offense
- 104 receptions on 140 targets (74.3% catch rate)
- 1015 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns (7 scrimmage touchdowns)
- 2 fumbles, 8 drops, 4 broken tackles, and 7 interceptions when targeted
Overall, for a rookie, this is a great stat line to be working with and shows promise for improvement as well, as he works on minimizing drops and fumbles. In terms of team outlook, Tua Tagovailoa has been somewhat on and off in his NFL career so far, however having the Alabama connection again between these two bodes well for Waddle’s outlook. Waddle was utilized well by the Dolphins, becoming their primary receiver nearly overnight, and took no time taking all the snaps he could.
DeVonta Smith ”“ Philadelphia Eagles
Secondly, we have the #10 overall pick from the 2021 class in DeVonta Smith. Smith has also been great in his career so far and has proved to be a very valuable asset for an Eagles offense that has struggled to find reliable receivers. Smith is easily the WR1 at the moment for Philly, as he has been most of if not all of the season considering his capabilities outside.
For the 2021 season, Smith produced slightly less so than Waddle, however, he had a better handle on the ball at times and did not have as many drops:
- 17 games played (16 started) taking 82% of snaps on offense
- 64 receptions on 104 targets (61.5% catch rate)
- 916 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns (5 scrimmage touchdowns)
- 1 fumble, 2 drops, 2 broken tackles, and 1 interception when targeted
As a whole Smith has been a great rookie as well, and will only improve as the Eagles utilize him more and can get Jalen Hurts on the same page. As mentioned with Waddle and Tua, Smith and Hurts also played together at Alabama, mostly so in 2018, where they connected quite a bit statistically. Smith’s upside will heavily depend on ball placement from Hurts, as we can see Smith only dropped 2 passes but had a significantly lower catch rate than Waddle, which partially is attributed to his targets being passes out of reach.
Who has the better outlook?
In my opinion, as of right now, Waddle projects better for the future. The main factors for this are that he led in nearly every statistical category other than fumbles, drops, and interceptions when targeted. Another factor to consider is that Tua seemingly at the very least is more accurate with the ball than Hurts, completing 6.5% more passes in 2021. Granted, Tua has better weapons in Waddle, Parker, Mike Gesicki comparatively to Smith, Reagor, and Dallas Goedert.
With that said, I believe both of these players will be extremely talented for years to come, and both of them will create offense for their respective teams.
