Who is the best tight end sleeper?
By: Emerson Beery
The tight end landscape has become the most talented bare, and hardest position to predict in fantasy. Every year there are talented tight ends who get drafted with high expectations and struggle to produce (looking at you Evan Engram). Due to this, it has become a popular strategy to fade the position if you don’t get one of the top guys like Travis Kelce or George Kittle. This is a strategy I approve of after spending years over drafting guys like Engram, Hunter Henry, and Austin Hooper. In this article, I will examine some tight-end prospects going late in drafts that have high upside in 2022 and beyond. None of these players are likely to be league winners, but at a position this thin they have starting potential.
Robert Tonyan
Tonyan is coming off a disappointing 2021 campaign in which he struggled to produce on the field before ultimately tearing his ACL in week 8. Through these 8 games, Tonyan mustered only 18 catches for 204 yards. His 29 targets were actually on pace for almost exactly the same amount he received in his breakout 2020 season. The problem was he couldn’t replicate his 11 touchdown receptions, which made up the bulk of his fantasy points. As a result, Tonyan’s dynasty value dropped dramatically since last season, as he can be found as a low TE2 according to most outlets. I believe he has a chance to outproduce this ranking in 2022 as one of Rodger’s most trusted offensive weapons.
In 2020, Tonyan managed to catch a touchdown on a ridiculous 18.6% of his targets. This wasn’t sustainable and his production dropped last year. As a result, no receiver outside of Davante Adams was able to maintain consistent fantasy value. Adams is now gone, and the Packers are left with Tonyan, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Amari Rodgers as their best-receiving weapons. The Packers will be a candidate to acquire receivers this off-season, however, there will be plenty of targets to go around in this now wide-open offense. Rodgers has had a habit in his career of forcing the ball to receivers that he trusts. Since 2012 the only wide receivers to surpass 900 yards are Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Adams. Rodgers knows who his elite playmakers are, and he tries hard to run the offense through them, even to a fault sometimes.
That won’t be the case this season, as there is no receiver on the team besides Cobb who has had over 55 receptions or 600 yards in a season. Cobb himself is turning 32 this Summer and isn’t capable of carrying a heavy workload at this stage of his career. Rodgers will be looking for someone in the offense who he’s had success within the past. Tonyan is an obvious candidate to take a major step forward as someone who’s shown chemistry with Rodgers in the past. In 2020, Rodgers had a 148.3 passer rating when targeting Tonyan, who also had one of the best target separation grades in the league.
Coming off a season-ending injury, Tonyan is reportedly ahead of schedule in his rehab. The Packers hinted at having him back early on in the season, but we’re noncommittal which is typical at this stage. With how fast players are coming back from injuries nowadays, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Tonyan on the field in week 1. He will likely be limited at least to start the year, but is ranked as a borderline top 25 TE, he is basically free in startups. This is a player who could have value deeper into the season as Rodger’s go-to red zone target. At a position that is touchdown or bust for the most part outside the top 6 players, Tonyan provides more upside than some of the tight ends drafted around him. He’ll be a player that I’ll be consistently targeting later in my drafts this Summer.
Brevin Jordan
Jordan is another tight end who’s being ranked as a lower TE2 who could have a major role going into 2022. The Texans selected him in the 5th round of last year’s draft from the University of Miami. He was a player who was known to play all over the field and was a dangerous weapon with the ball in his hands. His accolades include earning second-team All-ACC twice, first-team All- ACC once, and being a 2020 Mackey Award finalist. Jordan went to a great spot in Houston, which didn’t have any high-level tight ends to compete with for playing time. After starting off on the inactive list for the first seven games, he caught 20 passes for 178 yards and 3 touchdowns to finish his campaign. Jordan managed to score double-digit fantasy points in three of those outings and was Houston’s most effective fantasy tight end. Although not exciting numbers, the offense as a whole struggled. No one outside of Brandin Cooks was able to maintain fantasy relevance.
In 2022, Brevin Jordan has the chance to grow into a more full-time role with Houston and could become a focal point of the offense. Jordan Akins is gone, and Pharaoh Brown is hardly inspiring competition. Furthermore, Brandin Cooks might not be on the team in 2022 as he is rumored to be on the trading block. With Nico Collins and Chris Conley as the leading receivers behind him, the offense is completely devoid of talent. The Texans have holes across their entire roster as well and are unlikely to add significant competition at tight end. With David Mills showing competent quarterback ability, Jordan has the opportunity for a high volume of targets. I’ve seen Jordan go a bit early for me in some drafts this off-season, as he’s not a top 15 guy for me. However. in the TE20s we’re drafting long shots anyway, and Jordan has as good a shot as any in this range to succeed. Tight ends tend to take a year or two to develop, so taking a shot on a young and talented one late in drafts could pay dividends down the road. At a talent bare position, any player who is projected to be a key part of the offense has value.
Hayden Hurst
For my last tight-end sleeper, I’m going deep down the ranks to a rarely talked about, but talented player. Hayden Hurst is finally going to have an opportunity to lead a depth chart after playing behind Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts over the last few years. Hurst is a former first-round pick in the 2018 draft, who recently signed a 1 year/$3.5 million contract with the Cincinnati Bengals. He will be looking to bounce back with a new franchise after a disappointing start to his career in Baltimore and Atlanta. Despite being drafted ahead of Mark Andrews, he was overtaken quickly by the pro bowl tight end and was never given the opportunity to flourish with the Ravens. After being acquired by Atlanta in 2020, Hurst had a mini breakout going for 571 yards and 6 touchdowns. This was good for TE9 in PPR leagues. Unfortunately for Hurst, the Falcons added Kyle Pitts in last year’s draft leaving him once again in a secondary role. His playing time dwindled as the season went on, and there was little room for him on the Falcons rebuilding roster.
Fast forward to 2022 and Hurst projects to be the starting tight end for one of the best offenses in the league. Hurst is still a former first-round pick who came into the league as a fierce competitor with great hands. Gaining separation from defenders and blocking have been a problem in the NFL. However, he did show he has low TE1 upside in his one starting season with the Falcons in 2020. Burrow is an elite NFL quarterback who has shown he can support multiple fantasy options. With so much attention being devoted to Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, Hurst will likely have opportunities to feast underneath. A high-powered offense like this also will feature plenty of red zone opportunities, which are essential to most tight ends fantasy production.
C.J Uzomah had developed into a solid player for the Bengals, but he’s far from an elite tight-end talent. Hayden Hurst has the upside to at least hold a similar role in this offense as a mid-tier TE2. Currently being ranked as a borderline top 30 TE in most dynasty rankings, Hurst likely won’t cost you anything to acquire this off-season. While not likely a weekly starter, Hurst could be a great bye week filler, or a low-end flex option when injuries begin to set in. The upside is always there for a tight end in an elite offense. I expect Hurst to rise in rankings over the Summer as media coverage of his work with Burrow emerges.
