Will Alvin Kamara return to his old self?

By: Jake Rajala

The NFL gods have gifted the league with many talented running backs. Derrick Henry won Offensive Player of The Year in 2020 and Jonathan Taylor was a Top 5 OPOY candidate in 2021. There is still a lot of meat on the bone for RB success in the professional football league in my opinion.

There are many supreme RBs that have been injured or underperformed in recent memory. Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey have been banged up, while Ezekiel Elliot hasn’t been overly impressive in each of the past two seasons. Alvin Kamara also had a strange, slightly disappointing season in a Saints offense that unveiled musical chairs at OL.

I believe the outlook of Kamara is very enticing because I believe he holds the most mysterious outlook. He is almost 27 years old, facing a suspension, and he’s been playing behind an uncertain OL. With that said, I’m going to unfold the outlook of AK.

• Alvin Kamara

I don’t love the idea of AK being the “old Kamara” for next season, to say the least. The Saints lost Terron Armstead, who was arguably their top OL last season. Armstead missed 9 games last season and Kamara “coincidentally” unveiled a career-low 3.7 YPC (his previous career-low was 4.6 YPC). I expect NO to address the LT spot with their extra first-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft, but I believe a potential rookie LT will be a step below Armstead in 2022. More importantly, I fully expect Kamara to likely miss six games next season because of his unfortunate incident in Las Vegas.

I expect Kamara to always be heavily in the backfield in the passing game and noticeably more effective with Ingram “after 2022”. I believe the Saints knew he would be really involved for a long time when they gave him a massive contract extension in 2020. Kamara had a modest 33.8 receiving yards per game last season and I expect that tally to be his floor moving forward. His 2022 season is uncertain, while Ingram is a major sleeper in my opinion.

Nonetheless, Kamara is really an amazing worker and he should keep a unique role in Pete Carmichael’s offense as a legit passing threat (and RB weapon) for 4-5 more seasons in my opinion.

AK finished as the RB1 in 2020 and he took a significant dip in 2021. I don’t expect him to return as a Top 5 RB without Armstead and Payton, but he should be a stud in a sexier offense in 2023 and beyond. He’s currently ranked as the 10th best RB in dynasty (PPR) via Fantasy Pros. I would put him at number 8 right now (ahead of Dalvin Cook and Antonio Gibson). I believe his number 1 ranking in 2020 was a big part of the success of his Top 3 RT Ryan Ramczyk. It’s not talked about enough how his absence in 2021 (missed seven games) affected Kamara.

The Saints very athletic guard Andrus Peat also missed “11 games” last season.

I really expect Kamara to be excellent as an all-purpose RB with a healthier OL and an older Ingram beyond his probable six-game suspension next season.