Dynasty: 3 QBs to trade away NOW

Trade away Carson Wentz

Intro

Yes! the 2021 NFL season is a week in the books. However, dynasty football is a year-round marathon. There’s so much work that goes into watching games, analyzing the tape, studying tendencies, etc. to draft players in dynasty leagues that will help build your squad over the long run.

Much like the NFL hitching your wagon to the right QB will do wonders for your team and allow you to build from the ground up. Today we’ll discuss a couple of QBs that you want to trade away on your dynasty teams. These are players that I’m projecting to not be in ideal spots for the long haul thus will not pay dividends in dynasty leagues. Let’s get started!

Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz – Now, I expect Wentz to have an okay season and he will probably start every game. He has one of the best offensive lines in front of him and improved talent around him from a year ago. However, since we are talking dynasty QBs, Wentz isn’t an option long term.

It’s not that Wentz doesn’t produce solid numbers, however, he isn’t that oomph he had before his ACL and LCL tear in his left knee in 2017. Wentz also doesn’t provide the rushing upside as most of these younger QBs have. He is limited to being a pocket QB with limited mobile upside. With a shift in the league with how GMs are drafting QBs it makes the most sense to trade away Wentz, get decent draft capital back for him and trade for younger rookie QBs or wait til the 2022 NFL to draft a replacement.

Wentz may really not be the best short-term QB as “some” may have foreseen. Wentz was slightly a game manager against an okay Seattle defense from a year ago. If Wentz doesn’t play above average this year, it should be expected that he won’t have strong job security with his contract — not to mention the roster built for a QB to win now.

Daniel Jones – This is a make-or-break year for Jones. He has enough offensive talent around him along with Saquon Barkley returning. There is no excuse for Jones not to step up and deliver. However, the question is will he?? Simple answer is, no!

Jones is behind an awful offensive line. This is a huge concern and has been for a while now. I just don’t see Jones getting rid of the fumble/turnover issues that have plagued him for his first two seasons in the NFL. At this point, it might be time to cut bait and start over. There are so many talented rookie QBs this season that much greater talent around them and opportunity that Jones isn’t worth holding onto any longer.

In Week 1, Jones showed his lack of explosion as he just had 267 yards and a single touchdown. Jones has weapons galore and he’s young, so take that to your advantage in selling him now!

Jalen Hurts – Staying in the NFC East, Hurts is another QB that you need to trade away. He has tremendous upside in fantasy with his rushing ability and had a great last season last year but Hurts isn’t the long-term answer in dynasty leagues. I really don’t see much talent arm-wise.

Hurts actually played quite well last week. I don’t expect him to maintain a high quality of play or the HC-QB combo to have a fruitful career in the city of brotherly love. Although, there are A LOT of die hard Hurts fans and they sincerely bought into the hype he gathered from lots of analysts this offseason. Now after a solid Week 1 showcase against the atrocious Falcons pass defense, I would ship him off your roster.

Conclusion

As mentioned above in the intro, it takes time to scout good talent, especially in the quarterback position. However, if you are holding onto QBs like the ones above just because of one or two decent seasons then you aren’t planning correctly for the future of your dynasty squad. A huge part of the dynasty is to know when to cut bait, take your losses and move on. Sure, this can be time-consuming and a bit annoying but hey, it’s just fantasy! Have fun and enjoy being a GM!

By: Sukhwant Singh

Twitter: SinghisKing908

Dynasty: Two QBs to Buy

Buy Giants QB Daniel Jones

The NFL is advertised by young quarterbacks that dominate the league like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Lamar Jackson. Even though these QBs steal the spotlight, they will soon lose many reputable leading statlines, records, and Lombardi trophies to the next wave of “young up and coming QBs”. These first-year/second-year signal-callers are often discussed profoundly in the media, but not on a high enough scale from different angles. By saying that, I’m going to highlight two QBs age 24 and under that, you should consider buying in your beloved fantasy league.

Let’s get started

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold won the lottery when he was given the Panthers starting QB reigns. Darnold will light up the scoreboard with the familiar Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, and top purpose back in the league, Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater was soft when it came to pushing the ball downfield, yet DJ Moore and Robby Anderson were still a Top 5 WR combo. Now the Panthers explosive wideouts have the talent of the 23-year-old Sam Darnold, they will really become one of the league’s hottest offenses. 

I’m not the only one sold on the former USC QB. Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, and Louis Riddick all believe that Darnold is the guy Rhule has been looking for. A reason that stands out from the notable analysts is that the Panthers were more competitive than many realize — the Panthers lost eight games by eight or fewer pts in 2020. Darnold is worth significantly more points than the veteran Bridgewater that was sent out the door for a late-round draft pick.

Darnold has also been very productive and clean with his turnovers in pre-season as of late. Darnold went 19/25, 162 yards, 2 TDs, and a 119 passer rating against Pittsburgh’s brute defense. The strongest crowd telling you to sway away from Darnold are the NY Jet season ticket holders.

Daniel Jones 

The NFC East QB out of the Big Apple was impressive (Yes) in 2020. Despite not having Saquon Barkley, a quality WR in the building, Jones did a lot with the situation and was even named PFF’s most improved player in 2020. On top of that, Joe Judge revealed that Danny Dimes played through severe injuries in the season. Despite Jones playing with a depleted, porous, crew and being banged up himself, the Giants QB had stout performances and was “efficient”. His passer rating improved from 65.9 as a rookie to 78.4 in 2020. 

Jones will have Kenny Golladay, first-round pick Kadarius Toney, and Evan Engram has returned to the offense. It also helps that the third-year QB will get to utilize his toys in the disastrous NFC East. 

I don’t believe that Jones’s aggressive pre-season passing in a poor limited display against Belichick’s revamped defense is the death sentence for the Giants young QB. The turnover machine is playing a ball hawk defense in August, so don’t be starstruck from some moments of struggle – which will surely still occur in the season. In fact, I believe it would make more sense to push for a trade now.

The Giants QB should very well outperform his rookie year TD count of 24 in 14 games. Let’s not forget, he was 12th per points as a rookie in fantasy, too. I fully expect Jones to put it all together in terms of production, efficiency, and fewer turnovers in 2021. Marcus Spears of ESPN said it right when he said if Jones takes care of the football, Jones will be a star and the G Men could win the NFC East.

QBs to trade away in Dynasty Fantasy Football

Trade away QB Jameis Winston in dynasty

By: Jake Rajala

The dynasty fantasy football season is always in progress. Improving one’s fantasy roster and gaining a step ahead of your opponents doesn’t rest in the 365-day dynasty fantasy football course.

Everybody’s quarterback spot is always being monitored and rightfully so, the QB spot needs to be sharp and consistent. Just as seeking QB talent is the utmost necessary, it’s important to find out which signal-callers should be shipped away. There are many opportunities to deal a QB with smaller compensation with aim of acquiring a much better long-term QB.

In this outlook, I’m going to lay out two notable names that should be avoided in dynasty leagues. Let’s take a deep dive into this dynasty QB piece.

Jameis Winston – New Orleans Saints

I stand by my claim that Jameis Winston is the “most overhyped QB heading into 2021”. I feel strongly that hefty paid Taysom Hill, who shined when given the starting role, will reclaim the duties when Week 1 is underway. Personally, I feel like Hill and Winston are not the long-term answer for Sean Payton’s offense, anyways. Payton wants his guy and a talented guy with that. I believe the Saints will make a strong effort to trade up for the right QB in next year’s draft. I don’t foresee Payton acting as Andy Reid did and trying to get by with a QB like Alex Smith or Donovan McNabb. Payton likes to light up the scoreboard and oust routine Top 5 offensive performances.

If Winston does earn the starting nod in 2021, he’s still the same QB that threw 14+ interceptions in nearly every season for the Bucs. If Winston does start and manages to be modest (appears most likely), I see Payton trusting himself elsewhere instead of signing Winston to a monster deal after Winston’s one-year deal finishes after this season. I simply believe there is far too much risk all around for Winston’s ability to shine with the Saints.

Take advantage of the insane hype with the former first overall pick, former passing TD and passing yard leader, and player that is often shown working out intensely. I believe trading Winston with potentially some draft compensation or player for the likes of sleeper QB Daniel Jones, or stud Matthew Stafford, or rookie Mac Jones, it would really be a great move.  

Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have a talented QB in Kyler Murray, but he would be the perfect QB to trade away. He’s ranked as the actual third QB in dynasty right now. He’s a talented dual-threat QB, but I believe he’s one of the most controversial Top 3 dynasty QBs in the last several years. I believe he’s the perfect player to trade away.

Murray will be a Top 5 stat machine, but I don’t love his ceiling. He doesn’t appear to have his team in the ring for the NFC West prize and he’s not shown the ability to bully divisional defenses (Seahawks, Rams, 49ers) when he must. Murray may have gotten multiple additions to his offense, but they won’t propel the unit to an elite passing machine.

AJ Green is on his last legs and Rondale Moore doesn’t appear to be a lock starter yet. I personally believe an underlooked factor is that Kliff Kingsbury could likely be out the door after this upcoming season or next year if the Cardinals don’t compete strongly in the NFC West (as they appear to be fourth place favorites right now). If you could get a talented “Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence out of Murray AND quality draft compensation”, give it the green light.

Top dynasty sleepers right now

Ian Book is a major dynasty sleeper at QB

By: Jeremy Trottier

Dynasty football is going to be relatively interesting this year compared to most as there is a huge amount of depth from this draft class, which has made many rosters already filled to max capacity for most members of dynasty leagues.  In IDP leagues, this is even more relevant as players from both side of the ball are included.  Some of these players tend to fall through the cracks, whether your league is re-drafting fully or just doing a rookie draft.  

In this article, I will be going over some of the players who tend to fall into free agency from the drafts, why they fell, and why you should consider picking them up during the draft when possible.  

Ian Book – QB – New Orleans Saints

Starting off with a rookie, we have the Saints 4th round pick this year in Ian Book.  Coming in from Notre Dame, and having a smaller mold as a QB, he fell into day three of the draft and has been overlooked by most dynasty users despite being young.  On Sleeper Fantasy Football, Book is currently only rostered by 48% of teams, granted that will likely go up with more drafts happening by the day, however.  

The reason I find Ian to be an interesting option is because of the Saints other options at QB, as well as their offensive scheme.  The other two starting options for New Orleans are Jameis Winston, who is relatively unproven in this offense and is only on a one-year deal, so if he does perform who knows if he will stay with New Orleans rather than seeking more money in a Teddy Bridgewater type move.  Taysom Hill being the second option, who will be 31 years of age by the start of the season, and even while being “extended” this offseason, the whole extension is voidable, so it almost guarantees him being moved off the roster by the 2022 offseason.  

This leaves (aside from some camp arms) Ian Book, who will get a season to learn from the Saints development staff, QB coach, and Sean Payton.  He will also learn some of the scheme and playbook from the previously mentioned QBs, as well as Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and other offensive players who have been in the system for a few years now.  Overall, he could definitely have potential to start at some point in the future if the other QB options underperform.

Antonio Gandy-Golden – WR – Washington Football Team

The 2020 rookie wideout Antonio Gandy-Golden missed most of his rookie season, only playing in six games, and starting two.  He was placed on IR due to a hamstring injury, and was removed late in the season but got held out by coaches decision.  With that said, he should be WR3 for a time, or split outside in rotation with Terry McLaurin or Curtis Samuel.  His rookie year was relatively slim in terms of playing time, but with more snaps and more starts he should be able to produce at a relatively high level.

The main part of his game that is strong is his physical frame, at 6’4”, 223 pounds, and with 31 ¾” individual arm length, he has a fantastic redzone reception type body, which can compete for contested catches almost constantly.  He also had 22 reps on the combine bench press, an 127” broad jump, and a respectable 4.6 40-yard dash.  Due to all of this, he has an extremely wide catch radius, and has very good ball tracking abilities.  In a dynasty league, at the very least, he should be a taxi stash for another year, and then moved into a bench role after this season for bye weeks or injuries to starters.

Denzel Mims – WR – New York Jets

Another sophomore receiver who missed more than half of his rookie campaign, we have the Jets 59th overall pick last year in Denzel Mims.  When on the field, Mims was plagued by drops and poor throws due to the inconsistency of Sam Darnold, which likely was because of a relatively poor offensive line outside Mekhi Becton.  Mims ended an up and down rookie campaign with 23 receptions on 44 targets (52.3%) for 357 yards.  

The main part of his game that was impressive was his yards per reception, which was 15.5.  Now with a potentially elite franchise QB, with a much more explosive nature on the field, his stats should only greatly improve throughout the 2021-2022 campaign.

Damien Williams – RB – Chicago Bears

Moving onto the RB position we have a Super Bowl winning running back in Damien Williams, who many people have forgotten about since 2020.  As a reminder, he led the comeback in Super Bowl LIV against the San Francisco 49ers with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and was pretty effective in the 2019 season before his opt out in 2020.  

A dual threat back who was able to make do with the snaps he got in 2019, and had 711 scrimmage yards on 141 touches and only 1 fumble.  He also had an 81.1% catch percentage, which for 37 targets was not too bad at all (30 receptions on the 37 targets).  He also had the longest run in 2019, being 91 yards, which is attached below.

At the end of the day, his value should be relatively good at least for a few seasons, and he is worth stashing on your bench being RB2 in Chicago now alongside David Montgomery.

Jeff Okudah – CB – Detroit Lions

One more for the IDP fans such as myself, we have last years #3 overall pick, who has been exceptionally overlooked in a lot of cases.  Returning from a lackluster rookie year with injuries, he should be able to perform better with a new coaching staff and scheme, while simultaneously having a season of experience under his belt.

A lot of DBs in the league take a season or two to develop, as they have to learn how to adjust to the new speed and strength of NFL level receivers.  Jeff Okudah, being CB1 on the Lions still, should be primed to have quite a few tackles at the very least, with some interceptions and PBUs to go along with it if your league scores them. 

Does Mitchell Trubisky have any value in dynasty football?

Will Bills Mitchell Trubisky be a starter again?

By: Jeremy Trottier

As most NFL fans know by now, the Chicago Bears formerly believed to be franchise QB was not brought back to Chicago this offseason.  Instead, he found a home up north with the Buffalo Bills…the only issue is he is a backup behind an MVP candidate of last year.  His value in dynasty is pretty much nothing at the moment in drafts, however, should it be more?

In this article I will be reviewing some points as to why Mitchell Trubisky should have dynasty league value, or why he should be avoided at all costs.

Current Situation

Starting off with his current position, as I mentioned previously, being a backup to Josh Allen.  Now granted, in no world will he start over Josh Allen in 2021, as Allen has the playbook down pat in Buffalo, and also performed like an elite QB in 2020.  With that said, Allen does have a tendency to risk his body for the big play, quite often actually.

If Josh Allen keeps doing this and throwing himself into contact, the potential of him getting injured is definitely there, as we have seen before with other QBs who do this.  The first coming to mind would be Cam Newton, who ended up putting himself in too many of those scenarios and getting hurt.  If Allen does go down, Trubisky is almost guaranteed to take over for that duration of time, however long that may be.

Trubisky would be working with the system Buffalo has built too, primarily Stefon Diggs who led the league in receiving yards last season.  His value in that situation would skyrocket.

Potential Future Situation

After this year, it is more about his future in the NFL obviously.  Does he get a starting role elsewhere?  My guess is yes.  This situation is vaguely similar to that of Teddy Bridgewater sitting behind Drew Brees for some time to learn from him (despite Josh Allen being significantly younger now than Brees) and then being signed to a massive contract in Carolina.  

If Trubisky can get a few opportunities this year to play, especially in a 17-game season now, he should definitely get a shot with a QB needy team.  Sometimes just taking a year to soak in new information from a new coaching staff and with new players around you can hugely benefit your game.  Teddy Bridgewater only had to start five games in New Orleans before his huge deal in Carolina, if Trubisky can prove he has developed in his time with Buffalo he may get an opportunity elsewhere as a starter.

Conclusion/Dynasty Value

Overall Trubisky should probably be the sort of player you pick up if you have the extra roster spot.  Or if you are drafting fresh, pick him up in the last 4-5 rounds depending on how many teams you are playing against and just stash for awhile.  Once his value rises, someone will likely have claimed him prior to that happening.

What you want to do is be ahead of the curve and have him now, so if Josh Allen were to go down you have a decent player this year.  But more importantly, if he proves himself this year and hits free agency with that mentality, he could get the chance to be QB1 for another franchise again.

Three QBs Over 30 to Buy in Superflex Dynasty Leagues

Derek Carr Is a Must Buy

By: Marcel Boudreau

Winning a dynasty fantasy football league, like any fantasy football league, is often achieved by getting players at a value, whether that value be in terms of upside, or stability. This article is biasing Superflex (SF) Dynasty, and highlights three quarterbacks (QBs), all over the age of 30, in which are still being undervalued in the fantasy community, in which you are able to acquire for less than they are worth. Why over the age of 30? Because so many dynasty owners overreact to age and will quickly dump a player nearing the end of their prime, for an unproven young player or future draft picks. 

Ryan Tannehill 

32y.o 

2020 🡪 QB8 

Passing: 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 3819 yards 

Rushing: 7 TDs, 266 yards 

Dynasty SF Value = two 1.04-1.08 draft picks

Dynasty price tag = 1.05 + 2.06-2.12

We were all very suspicious if Tannehill’s second half 2019 season heroics were going to be fluke. 

We were all weary that the passing volume, and opportunity for Tannehill to put up fantasy production would be capped due to the nature of this run heavy offense. 

If the 4-year $118 million extension was not enough to sway us, his 2020 season should be enough proof to make us purchase Tannehill. Below is a list of Pros and Cons.

Cons:

  • 36 Deep Pass Attempts (26th) 🡪 Deep Ball completion % of 33.3% (27th)
    • Minimal big plays limiting his upside in the passing game
  • Protected Rate (24th)
    • Opposing teams could easily get to him.
  • 31.8 pass plays per game (30th)
    • Low volume, less opportunity
  • 23rd in Accuracy Rating 
  • Play Action Completion % of 59.6% (33rd
    • Playing for a run-heavy team, he needs to make these throws count. 

Pros:

  • 12th in Rush Yards and 7 Rushing TDs (4th)
    • Easy fantasy points, higher floor
  • 2nd in true passer rating
  • 3rd in true completion %
  • 5th in catchable pass rate
  • 2nd in fantasy points per drop back.

The narrative that the offense runs through Derrick Henry (quite literally) is true. But Tannehill continues to prove he can co-exist with Henry and be extremely fantasy relevant. Tannehill did all of this, while being on the team with potentially the most COVID issues. He proved he could do it before, as he was the QB 8 back in 2014 with Miami, and he has now proven he can continue to do.

The big question would be if Tannehill is better with or without Henry. The answer is hard to project, but I would assume the similar fantasy outputs. He would go up in volume but decrease in efficiency; Tannehill did score 23 fantasy points in his one game without Henry (vs. 2019 Saints), small sample size, but he was stellar in that game, so he can be trusted regardless how long Henry is on this team.

Matthew Stafford 

33y.o

2020 🡪 QB15 (missed ~1 game)

Passing: 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 4084 yards

Dynasty SF Value = two 1.05-1.10 draft picks

Dynasty price tag = 1.08 + 2.06-2.12

Matthew Stafford began his career playing 13 games in his first two season… since then? He has been a Top 10 QB in six of nine healthy seasons, and top 15 in eight of nine healthy seasons, with one season (2019) only playing eight games. 

How about this season? We need to recognize that he was extremely beat up, had no O-line, and his best receiver was Marvin Jones. Yes, Jones is a great WR, but he’s not an elite WR. His second-best weapon was a toss-up between Hockenson and Swift, but Matt Patricia was doing his best not to play Swift early and went with Adrian Peterson to try and have a decent start to the season knowing his job was in Jeopardy. 

Matthew Stafford, if you haven’t heard, is a Los Angeles Ram. What does this mean? 

Rams have passed more than 35 times per game on average since the start of 2018.

That would be 560+ pass attempts from Stafford. The last time Stafford attempted 560 was 2017, when he finished as the QB 7, making Marvin Jones the WR10, Golladay was a rookie (WR70), and Golden Tate (WR11), Fells and Ebron combined for 7 TDs as well. Why do I bring this up? Stafford is entering a team with Kupp, Woods, Van Jefferson, Akers, Higbee all under contract until 2024. This is arguably the most complete set of skill players on a team, in an offensive scheme that was able to make Goff the QB6 in 2018… what doors that open for Stafford over the next three years? 

How efficient was Stafford with a sub-par crew of weapons in 2020?

  • 10th in true completion %
  • 14th in deep ball completion %
  • 10th in catchable pass rate
  • 14th in production premium
  • 11th in accuracy rating 
  • 12th in passing yards

He did all of this while his receiving group was:

  • 23rd in separation
  • 41st in YAC/T
  • And had the 5th most drops.

I’ve heard the argument of “LAR defense is 1000x better than the Lion’s defense, he will nott have to play from behind and therefore less pass attempts” or something along those lines. 

First off, the Rams were 13-3 in 2018 and Goff threw 561 attempts. Secondly, they play in a conference with Seattle, Arizona, and San Francisco, which has a chance to be one of the highest scoring conferences in the NFL next season, meaning there’s strong chances Stafford will have many games of at least neutral game script. Ultimately, they can be a great team, and Stafford can have the passing volume to support not only a strong fantasy season, but at least 3 in a row.

Derek Carr 

29y.o (30 before start of 2021)

2020 🡪 QB14 (missed ~1 game)

Passing: 27 TDs, 9 INTs, 4103 yards

Running: 3 TDs

Dynasty SF Value = 1st + 2.08-2.10

Dynasty price tag = 2.01-2.06

There are many reasons why you should buy Derek Carr, and a few reasons why you can get him at a discount. 

Why is he a discount? 

He had an extremely average season, with 3 bust games, which all came when you expected boom games. 

  • Week 10 vs DEN (7.16 fantasy points) who just gave 284yds and 3TDs to Matt Ryan in week 8,
  • Week 12 vs ATL (-2.4 fantasy points) who were giving up the most points to the QB.
  • Week 15 (fantasy playoff semifinals) vs LAC (2.12 fantasy points) where he got hurt.

Three bust in five weeks, all end of season when things mattered most, leaving an extremely sour taste in owner’s mouths. Owners are ready to move him at a cheap price as it will feel as weight has been lifted off their shoulders.

Why he’s a dynasty buy? 

Jon Gruden’s offense is a tricky system to learn, people hate it because it looks like it’s only feeding Waller the ball, but there’s a lot more to it than that, and Carr spoke on this in an off-season interview and how it took 2 years to learn it, which is reflected in his QB finishes over last three seasons: 20, 17, 14. 

Derek Carr just threw for a career high 4103 yards (11th) while missing a game, where if he didn’t miss the one game, he was on pace for QB7 in total yards ahead of Aaron Rodgers.

In 2020, Carr was:

  • 11th in TDs thrown (27), 
  • 5th in Red Zone pass attempts,
  • 8th in money throws 
  • 6th in yards per attempt
  • 8th in deep ball attempts (10th in deep ball completion %)
  • 15th in accuracy rating
  • 13th in true passer rating 

He was very efficient for a QB who had Nelson Agholor as his WR1. Waller is still under contract, Ruggs will be a year older, and it’s no secret that the Raiders are trying to make the cap space to sign a top WR Free Agent (Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Juju Smith-Schuster… Godwin I expect back with Tampa, Fuller is a question mark). If we’re being honest, Las Vegas is appealing for any of those guys:

  • Great city/new arena, 
  • Top 3 TE demanding defensive attention 
  • Absolute field stretcher in Ruggs, under contract for another four years.
  • Young, stud RB that defenses need to respect in Jacobs. 
  • LV can make space to pay 17-19 million which would be about their asking prices.

Derek Carr finished as the QB 14, and odds are looking like their offense will have better pieces, and they’ll play in an extremely competitive division, where they will need to score points to stay in games, AND don’t feel threatened that Derek Carr will be traded or replaced as rumors are multiple teams have inquired and the Raiders have replied with a “hard no”. There’s a reason they’re trying to trade away Mariota, and I believe Carr start for the raiders for the remainder of his contract as a Raider. Derek Carr is a player I would advise to buy if your dynasty team is in a “win now” situation, where you can rely on him for at least two more seasons to bring consistent value. 

Conclusion 

To conclude, I am not saying break your bank, ruin your team, or trade great pieces away for these QBs. Evaluate your team, make sure you’re balanced. The easiest way to lose an SF dynasty league is by not having two reliable starting QBs. Both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady were not considered for this article as they’re more on the side of sell high or holds. Matt Ryan was the next guy on the list, which he split hairs with Derek Carr, the uncertainty and rumors of Matt Ryan being potentially replaced in the draft are what deterred him from making the list. That being said, if the Falcons do not draft a QB, Matt Ryan becomes an instant buy-low QB. The last tip here, instead of trading away a first and a second-round pick for these QBs, try to “sell the age” and package in a Drew Lock or a Sam Darnold to preserve the future of your team, while off-loading their questionable futures. 

Dynasty Quarterbacks to Sell Away

Which QB Needs to Sell High on?

By: Joe Mason @josephmason94

Matthew Stafford (DET)

On January 31st, 2021 Stafford was traded in a blockbuster deal to the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams gave up Jared Goff along with two future first-round picks and a third-round pick. Stafford will be joining arguably the best supporting cast he has ever had in his twelve-year career. But is it time to sell high on the hype of his new landing spot?

Since his breakout year in 2011 where he threw for 5000 yards and 41 passing touchdowns, Stafford has only thrown more than 30 passing touchdowns once. He just turned 33 this month, and has two years left on his current contract.

Stafford is as tough as them come. In 2020 he apparently played the entire year with some type on injury, but what if he is always hurt? Are we ever getting Matt Stafford at 100%? He is a sell for me because I don’t believe we will ever get a 16-game season with him staying healthy.

I would be comfortable parting with Stafford for a first-round pick plus. Something along the lines of a mid to late first and Courtland Sutton. You might be able to get more for him and I’ve seen dynasty managers all in on Stafford to the Rams.  It never hurts to hear what someone has to offer after putting a player on the trade block.

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

I’ll admit this one is a bold take, but hear me out. Lamar Jackson is only 24, was the MVP of the league in 2019, and has put together back-to-back QB1 seasons as the leader of the Baltimore Ravens. What’s not to love right?

My stance with Lamar is you need to treat him as a QB/RB hybrid due to the amount of hits he takes from his rushing volume. Since Jackson entered the league in 2018, only 24 running backs have more rushing attempts than he does. His 482 rush attempts support low-end RB2 numbers.

I don’t know about you, but I personally don’t want my most valuable dynasty asset taking 10-15 hits a game. In the long run the injury risk may not be worth the reward.

Now this rushing volume is what makes Lamar an elite QB option at the position. I anticipate getting two to three more top years out of Lamar, but if he ever loses efficiently on the ground, what would happen? If you take away his rushing stats, Lamar would have finished as the QB21 in 2020 but still would have been the QB5 in his MVP 2019 season. He can still put up great numbers through the air, but you lose out on his safe rushing floor if he ever loses that juice.

Depending on the status of your team, what could you get for a guy like Lamar Jackson? If you are a contender, I would not sell him and ride the top 10 projection for at least the next two years. If you are unsure or are in a rebuild, you can fetch at least three first round picks for Lamar Jackson in a superflex league.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)

The great Aaron Rodgers has found himself on the sell list. Since he came into the league and took over for Brett Farve, Rodgers has been an absolute stud. Unfortunately, no one can play forever, not even Brett Farve. So, when are the wheels going to fall off the tracks for Rodgers?

After a disappointing 2019, many analysts thought Rodgers may have hit the first stages of his decline. He was very inconsistent in 2019 but much of it was due to new coach Matt LeFleur and the new run first play calling. After all that, Rodgers bounced back with an impressive QB2 finish and he finished with more TD passes than the Packers had punts.

But when will Rodgers decline begin? I am hearing around the fantasy community that most people think Rodgers has one to two elite years left. When I sell a player in dynasty, I always want to make sure I am at least one year ahead of the decline. Once the decline has started, your return value only gets worse.

Is there another opportunity to sell Rodgers for what his value is now? I see this as his ceiling. Sure, Tom Brady has played into his mid-40s but that is an outlier. Rodgers can be sold for the likes of two first round draft picks or an up-and-coming QB and a first. The worst thing you could do is wait until its too late.

Three Quarterbacks Over 30 to Target in Dynasty

Dynasty QB targets for 2021

By: Teddy Ricketson

There are obvious differences between redraft leagues and dynasty leagues, but one overarching “stat” that is discussed a lot in dynasty is the age of the players. Now, everyone can have different strategies in dynasty whether you are all-in on winning now or if you are building for a future dynasty, but in either case, there is going to be some value with QBs that are “over the hill” playing in their age-30 season or later. Here are three QBs that I believe will defeat Father Time long enough to give your team a boost:

  1. Matthew Stafford- Los Angeles Rams

The biggest trade of the “offseason” so far saw Matthew Stafford head to sunny Los Angeles in a blockbuster trade between the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams. We all knew that Stafford was one of the toughest guys in the NFL, and for the first time in a long time, he is going to have a supporting cast on both sides of the ball that will alleviate pressure on him.

This season, throwing to the likes of Marvin Jones Jr, Mohammed Sanu, and Danny Amendola for his receiving corps, Stafford finished as QB15. He completed 64.2% of his passes for 4,084 yards, 26 TDs, and 10 INTs. On the Rams, Stafford will have two top-25 fantasy WRs in Robert Woods (WR12) and Cooper Kupp (WR26). He does get a downgrade at TE going from TJ Hockenson (TE5) down to Tyler Higbee (TE17), but this Rams offense had Josh Reynolds as their third WR option finish as WR61, 10 spots higher than the Lions second WR last season.

Stafford is going to have more chances to succeed and hopefully not play from behind as often with the Rams defense getting him the ball back. The Lions defense gave up the most points in the league last season, and the Rams gave up the fewest and the Rams had twice as many INTs as the Lions did. There is hype around Stafford on a new team, so give it a few months for it to die down, but I do think you can get him cheaply and he is poised for a QB1 season.

2. Ryan Tannehill- Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill had the same number of rushing TDs as Lamar Jackson last season. Obviously he didn’t have nearly the yardage on the ground, but Tannehill is coming off of a season where he set career highs in passing and rushing TDs. The question mark for Tannehill is how deep his supporting cast will be this season as both Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith are Free Agents, but he we know he will have the RB3 in PPR scoring Derrick Henry and the WR14 AJ Brown out there to help him try and stay hot.

Tannehill finished as the QB7 on the season with 3819 yards, 33 TDs passing, seven INTs, and he added 266 yards and seven rushing TDs on the ground. His best game of the season came in Week 15 against the Lions as he went 21/27 for 273 yards, three TDs, 0 INTS, and three rushes for 21 yards and two touchdowns for a total of 37.02 fantasy points. He finished as the QB9 (min. nine games started) in a points per game basis so while the Tennessee Titans still have some pending free agents, use his turning 33 right before the season as leverage for a QB that still has solid years to give your squad.

3. Kirk Cousins- Minnesota Vikings

Say what you will, Kirk Cousins is really, really good at handing the ball of the fantasy’s RB2 Dalvin Cook. All jokes aside, Cousins finished the season as a QB1 finishing 11th with 306.2 fantasy points. Cousins is surrounded by talent so despite the criticisms he is given, he is still going to be a viable QB option if you were someone who was hoping that Cam Newton to the Patriots was going to be a thing. In superflex leagues, two-QB leagues, or in desperate dynasty roster situations, give me Cousins.

Cousins completed 67.6% of his passes for 4,265 yards, 35 TDs, and 13 INTs. In QBs with at least 500 passing attempts, he was second to Deshaun Watson in average completion distance at 8.1 yards meaning when he is completing passes, it is further down the field and for a guy that completed 349 passes, that is a good indicator for potential success.

As discussed with the other two QBs on this list, Cousins has about a good as a supporting cast as any. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen finished as the WR6 and WR10 respectively, and then there’s ole RB3 Cook in the backfield too. Kyle Rudolph is fantasy irrelevant, but Irv Smith Jr. showed flashes of promise as a young tight end in the game. There are trade rumors swirling around Cousins, but if he stays put, I like him to finish as a QB1 this upcoming season and you can easily make a case to whoever has him in your league to get him cheaply.

Honorable Mention: Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders)- Carr turns 30 next month so technically does qualify for the age stipulation, but even with finishing as the QB13 this season, I believe he doesn’t make the jump high enough to be worth pursuing, but if you have assets to spare he wouldn’t be a bad target.

Dynasty: Three Sleeper Quarterbacks and Tight Ends to Target

Jalen Hurts Has A Lot Of Upside

By: Christopher Krause

To round out my segment on Dynasty Buys and Values, I’m going to combine quarterbacks and tight ends, due to their more limited supply. Without further ado, here are three quarterbacks and three tight ends you should be buying for Dynasty right now.

Let’s start with our quarterbacks.

Jalen Hurts

As I’m writing this, Carson Wentz has yet to be traded. BUT where there is this much smoke there will likely soon be fire. This is one of the rare occasions where I would be more aggressive in a one-quarterback league versus a two-quarterback or Superflex league. Now let me explain. Hurts has a very high ceiling, as we saw in the few starting weeks last year. His peak score was 37.82 fantasy points in Week 15 versus the Arizona Cardinals. The flip side is he has yet to have a single game over 57% completion percentage. So, his floor is low as can be as a passer. In a single quarterback league, all I care about is ceiling. But, in a two-quarterback league, the floor is more important. Although I still say he is worth pursuing, I would not break the bank. Even with a Wentz trade, Hurts will still be outside my Top 12 Quarterbacks.

Jameis Winston

This former first overall pick of the 2015 NFL Draft has really taken a fall from grace. BUT I think his year sitting behind Drew Brees will bring a resurgence. As of right now, Drew Brees has yet to retire, though it is highly speculated and probable. Regardless, Jameis most likely will find a home where he will be a starter, as he is only one year removed from a 5000 passing yard and 33 touchdown season. With his price on the upswing but not reaching full peak, I think now is the time to scoop up Jameis. If you are the Jameis owner, now is the time to hold because if/when he gets a starting position, he is automatically a Top 12 Quarterback. He will also most likely be a Top 15 Dynasty Quarterback, contract depending.

Marcus Mariota

The player that is forever tied to Jameis Winson. A second overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, Mariota has also seen himself replaced and sent out of his drafted team. In 2020, he was the highest paid back-up in the NFL, sitting behind Derrick Carr in Las Vegas. Week 15 was Mariota’s only playing time all season, but he definitely showed there is still something there, scoring over 25 fantasy points in relief duty when Carr got injured. I think one of two things will happen with Mariota: (1) Carr gets traded and Mariota takes over; or, more likely (2) Las Vegas cuts ties with him because he is owed over 10.7 million with zero dollars guaranteed. There is no way we see both Carr and Mariota in Las Vegas in 2021. But, I think if the cut happens, Mariota will get picked up and get the opportunity to play a starting gig. For somebody you can currently get as a throw-in, it’s a low-risk high-reward player to target.

Now for the tight ends.

Mike Gesicki

Outside of the big three (Kelce/Kittle/Waller), Mike Gesicki is one of my most targeted players. Now a lot of us have been calling for this since this athletic freak has come into the NFL, but I believe with the current regime we will see the true Gesicki breakout come in 2021. Gesicki saw an increase in both targets and yards per game once Tua took over, and I believe both players will grow together with a full off-season.

Irv Smith Jr.

Irv definitely started showing up the second half of the season, scoring five touchdowns after Week 8. The biggest thing here will most likely be addition by subtraction. I do not expect the Minnesota Vikings to keep the Red Zone Reindeer Kyle Rudolph, as they would save a little over 5 million dollars by cutting him. This would open up 37 tight end targets and five more potential red zone targets. Smith, who had an impressive 67% catch rate in the red zone in 2020, could certainly be a recipient. 

Chris Herndon 

Did you know Chris Herndon was a Top 10 Tight End in terms of fantasy points the last four weeks of the season and only trailed Darren Waller in fantasy points the last two? Now this was one player we may have just been a year off on. A big breakout candidate for 2020, Herndon literally did nothing in the Adam Gase offense this past year. The silver lining is that when Gase was fired, we saw Herndon’s usage significantly increase in the passing game. This is still a speculative add, but like Mariota, it is one you can most likely get for cheap most. So, this pick is low risk with a good potential reward, especially in a tight end premium league. 

There you have it. Six more players I hope you can get at a discount that will most likely return or exceed the price you pay. As always, thank you for reading, and if you have any questions hit me up on twitter @KidFlashFF.

Dynasty: QB Trade Targets

Which Fantasy QB Could Prevail Your Championship Hopes?

By Mike “Dirty Jobs” Darling  

Well, here we go again.  Another season is almost behind us, but to those of us in the dynasty fantasy world, the season is just beginning! With the wheels already in motion, this off-season looks to be one that will be action-packed; from potential trade targets, free agency, not to mention this year’s draft looks like it could possibly be the best in years as far as offensive production!  

All that energy leads to excitement- and in this time a person can find their opponents willing to wheel and deal and get in on the action.  I’m going to let you know the five quarterbacks I’ll be targeting this year, and why I’m going after them.    

Dwayne Haskins, Pittsburgh Steelers 

Ok, figure we will get the guy that will make you throw garbage at me out of the way first. Hear me out though.

Dwayne Haskins has all kinds of development issues and doesn’t seem to have the composure or dedication to play at the professional level.  At least that’s what it looks like on paper, anyway.

Nonetheless, this guy has enough raw talent and now is in one of the most disciplined programs in the game.  Couple that with the fact that you can buy this guy for a song, and it’s a cheap enough investment knowing that the team involved has little confidence in their big arm’s predecessor.   

Drew Lock, Denver Broncos 

Another “meh” level quarterback, but this guy is putting up fairly decent numbers and the team is starting to get amazing weapons surrounding him. Kind of like Haskins above, you can get this guy on the cheap and slot him into your Superflex position with confidence that he will give you a 15-20 with an occasional sub 10 or plus 20. 

It’s nothing to get excited about, but sometimes just having a good consistent floor is better than chasing rookie QBs in bad programs.  This is definitely more for your win now scenarios, as the tape on this guy shows his long-term value has a deep regression in years 5-6. 

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals 

Now, this is a guy I can finally get excited about! Before he got hurt, this guy looked to have a command of the game, an understanding of defensive scheming, and the ability to throw over 30 times a game on a team that has almost zero depth in their backfield. And he can run. All this adds up to a volume play with limited turnovers with a very high ceiling.

That being stated, this is a long-term play and it will be expensive. Anyone paying attention will require a first-round pick plus for this guy and to me that is just fine.  I don’t believe he will be anything amazing in the 2021 season, so waiting may be the play here but there’s an outside chance that this guy will never be cheaper than he is now if he has a season like last year.

I do however expect him to be more of a third-year breakout, but still viable enough for win-now scenarios. 

Jacob Eason, Indianapolis Colts 

Or Jacon “Ease-In” as I like to call him because with the recent retirement of Phillip Rivers, this guy is getting handed one of in not the best situations in the NFL. We are talking about a team who made the playoffs despite having Phillip Rivers at the helm with young, fast weapons at their disposal in Taylor, Pittman and Allie-Cox.

The line is one of the best when they remain healthy so almost anyone who gets this job will be able to produce solid fantasy numbers, and he looks to be the next in line with the new regime in place. 

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 

Ok. It wouldn’t be me if I didn’t include the man I’ve been shouting off the rooftops since draft day. This team is getting better every year, and this guy’s arm is getting more and more dialed in and his understanding of the NFL is within the top five in the league.

Our only hope to not have to open the vault up to get this guy on our roster is if the community believes in any regression. I don’t see it and in fact, I see this being a consistent play week in week out.  Definitely worth the overpay if you don’t want to worry about your QB1 position the next 5 or so years. 

In summation, I feel like any of these guys can be value-added on your roster and be great fantasy plays over the next few years with a focus on volume. To me, this is the key to championships, and getting anyone on the list above should set you in a position to work other spots on your team- feeling great because you have a solid guy at the helm! 

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