Dynasty Outlook: Big 5 QBs

Projected landing spots and fantasy projections

By: Joe Mason @josephmason94

Trevor Lawrence

Projected Destination: Jacksonville Jaguars – Round 1 Pick 1

The Jaguars tanked in 2020 to have a chance at this pick, and it worked out after they benched Gardner Minshew and the Jets surprised everyone with two wins. I would argue Lawrence is a generational prospect similar to Andrew Luck. This is a no-brainer pick for the Jaguars and general manager Trent Baalke.

Season One Projection

QB2 with weekly QB1 upside working with likely favorable game scripts for most of the season.

Dynasty Outlook

Trevor has the tools to be a great quarterback in this league. If the Jaguars can build a solid defense and supporting cast, Trevor should have an opportunity to succeed and show why he’s the best player in this draft class. I predict him to be an annual mid-range QB1 after he gets a couple years under his belt.

Zach Wilson

Projected Destination: New York Jets – Round 1 Pick 2

The Jets were the clear favorite to land the first overall pick but a couple late season wins have them at number two for the draft. There are a number of directions they can go with this pick but Zach Wilson stands out from the way he can accurately hurl a ball from any angle. The offseason hype was very kind to his draft stock.

Season One Projection

Low-end QB2 with some flashes of good weeks and some very poor bad weeks.

Dynasty Outlook

Because Wilson ended up with the Jets, its hard to be confident in his success in the NFL, especially since he only had one good year at BYU. The scheme is a good fit but the Jets need a lot of things to go right including finding better weapons on the outside and improving their offensive line. His most likely outcome is an NFL bust for me, but if anyone can turn the Jets around, its Robert Saleh.

Justin Fields

Projected Destination: San Francisco 49ers – Round 1 Pick 3

I am one of the few that do not believe the Mac Jones to SF hype. I believe the media smoke that is being projected is for a reason and coming from San Francisco. The 49ers know the Jets are taking Wilson and that’s why they made the move up to #3. They do not want anyone to trade up to #2 to take Fields. Coach Shanahan and General Manager John Lynch have done a great job in keeping things confidential and managing leaks within the 49ers organization. Justin Fields is closer to Trevor Lawrence than he is to Zach Wilson in terms of a prospect.

Season One Projection

Sits behind Jimmy Garoppolo year one and gives him time to learn the complex Shanahan offense. An injury to Jimmy G could lead to a playing opportunity.

Dynasty Outlook

I expect Fields to sit for just one season and then take over as the starter in 2022. After Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, would anyone be more electric as an NFL QB than Justin Fields? I anticipate him as a dynasty QB1 solidified by his rushing ability providing a solid floor.

Mac Jones

Projected Destination: New England Patriots – Round 1 Pick 7 (via trade with Detroit)

The Patriots trade up to pick seven and send pick fifteen, their third rounder this year (pick 96) and a 2022 first rounder to jump in front of Carolina to have their choice at a QB. After the Falcons, Bengals, and Dolphins all went non-QB, the Patriots realize they need to overpay to get their guy. Belichick and Saban go way back to their coaching days in the NFL and Saban seems to always give Belichick inside information into his players.

Season One Projection

Sits behind Cam Newton who is on a short leash and eventually takes the starting job mid-season.

Dynasty Outlook

Mac Jones is very similar to Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan. That puts his ceiling around a low-end QB1. Expect him to spend most of his time in the QB2/QB3 range until he can learn the offense.

Trey Lance

Projected Destination: Carolina Panthers – Round 1 Pick 8

After Bridgewater disappointed in 2020, the team gave PJ Walker a start in week 17. After he also disappointed, the team made a heavy run at Matt Stafford and offered the eighth pick in this year’s draft. After missing out on Stafford, they were able to settle for Sam Darnold with a trade via the Jets. The Panthers probably did not expect one of the top QBs to fall to them at eight, so they gladly select Trey Lance the dual threat star out of NDSU.

Season One Projection

Sits behind Sam Darnold to learn the Joe Brady offense. If Sam Darnold disappoints, he will move into the start role in year two as the Panthers flip Darnold to another QB needy team.

Dynasty Outlook

Lance has the highest ceiling of all the QBs in this class. His raw potential means his sky is the limit as long as a team can mold their offense to fit his strengths. He has the most variance out of all the QBs in this draft. His ceiling is as high as top 5. His floor is a complete draft bust.

Achilles Heel for each top QB Prospect: What’s to hate about Trevor Lawrence?

The Big 5 QB class

By: Joe Mason @josephmason94

Mac Jones

Mobility

Michael McCorkle “Mac” Jones won the Johnny Unitas Gold Arm Award in 2020 which is awarded to the top upperclassman quarterback that exemplifies not only performance on the field, but character and integrity. But out of all the top quarterbacks in this class, Jones does not have great mobility outside of the pocket. Sure, there are great true pocket passers like Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins, but to truly be a difference-maker in the NFL you need to be able to throw outside of the pocket to buy time for your receivers.

Out of the big five quarterbacks, Jones finished with the highest QB rating at 203.1. He and Trey Lance (2019 – 200.8) were the only two to finish with ratings above 200. If Jones was in any other class, his mobility wouldn’t be this much of a problem, but the other four quarterbacks have the dual-threat capability that will keep opposing defenses on their toes.

Trey Lance

Experience

Trey Lance absolutely balled out in his 2019 campaign posting 2,786 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions along with 1,100 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. The man had a total of 42 touchdowns and zero turnovers in his first year as a starter. Incredible.

In 2020, Lance was only able to play in one game before his program opted out of the 2020 season. In his one game last year he had a 50% completion percentage with two passing touchdowns and an interception while rushing for 143 and two touchdowns. What concerns me is his playing experience, and how little he has thrown the ball against top college competition.

Lance is dynamic, and his dual-threat ability gives him the highest ceiling of all the quarterbacks in this class. With that upside comes plenty of risks, however, and depending on his landing spot giving him the ability to learn the offense and sit for a year similar to what happened with Mahomes and Lamar, could really benefit him.

Zach Wilson

Injury History / Offensive Line

I don’t mean to bash on Wilson with two categories, but his game is so balanced it was difficult to narrow in on just one. These two categories were not in his control, but injuries happen, and Wilson had a huge advantage with his offensive line in 2020.

Zach Wilson put up an impressive breakout junior season at BYU finishing third in the nation in both touchdown passes (33) and passing yards (3,692) with only three interceptions. His first two seasons were very mediocre, as he missed four games in both seasons related to the injury. 2020 was his first full season without any injury problems. In 2018, he tore a labrum in his left shoulder which required surgery, and then in 2019, he fractured his right thumb in his throwing hand which caused him to miss time.

Wilson sits at 6’2 and 210 pounds which is easily the smallest of the big five quarterbacks. He has the great scrambling ability and can make plays with his legs so he will need to learn to avoid hits if he wants to last in the NFL.

Another item with Wilson that concerns me is BYU had an outstanding offensive line. Wilson was not pressured as often as other QBs, not to mention the competition he played is not up to the level of Jones, Fields, and Lawrence. Check out this clip below and look at the pocket his offensive line gives him. From watching the film, Wilson had all day to throw a number of times, something that will likely change in the NFL.

Justin Fields

OSU QB Track Record

I honestly had a really hard time looking for a weakness in Justin Fields game. People said there were concerns in his game regarding going through his progressions. After watching some of his games on film, I did not see that as an issue. People said there were concerns with his pocket presence and his ability to sense pressure and extend plays. I did not see that as an issue. Fields has a great arm, is accurate, tough as can be which we saw in this year’s Sugar Bowl, and is very athletic.

If we look back at the history of Ohio State quarterbacks being relevant in the NFL, the list involves short starting stints and no long-term relevant players that made a significant impact in the NFL. Just looking back at the last five OSU quarterbacks before Fields took over, two were converted to wide receiver shortly after being drafted (Pryor, Miller), one just got cut two years after being a first-round pick (Haskins), and two are no longer in the league (Barrett, Jones).

I don’t believe in judging an individual based on where they came from, but Fields will be an outlier for OSU if he can be a relevant starter for multiple years in this league.

Trevor Lawrence

Adversity

Trevor Lawrence succeeded one of the greatest Clemson quarterbacks ever in Deshaun Watson and delivered big for the school in his first year winning the national championship. He threw for over 10,000 total passing yards in three seasons, joining a list of only fifteen college quarterbacks to do so in a three-year college career. Some relevant NFL names on this list are Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, and Deshaun Watson.

The projected number one overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, Trevor Lawrence has been a dominant force ever since he started playing high school football. Lawrence has a combined record of 86-4 between high school and college. He still to this date has never lost a regular-season game. The big question is, how will he respond when he first deals with adversity?

Lawrence is set to join the Jaguars who are coming off an NFL worst 1-15 record. We know the NFL in terms of the competition is light years ahead of high school and college, but how will Lawrence respond if the Jaguars get off to a slow or rough start?

Lawrence recently took some heat for his comments to sports illustrated where he had to come out later to clarify his intentions. I don’t see this as a major issue, but the only way I see Lawrence failing terribly is if he loses his confidence and motivation to continue to work at the next level.

Cincinnati Bengals Dynasty WR Outlook

Could Auden Tate be fantasy relevant?

By: Joe Mason @josephmason94

The Bengals hit on their top two picks in the 2020 NFL draft with Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins who produced from the start and gave a promising future for this team. With Joe Burrow leading the offense and the Bengals defense finishing in the bottom half of 2020, look for this team to put up some fantasy points in 2021.

Before Joe Burrow went down with an injury in week eleven, he was averaging over 40 pass attempts per game. That ended up being good enough for second most in the league on a per game basis only behind Ben Roethlisberger. If this trend continues, this Bengals passing offense is going to be fantasy gold in 2021.

Joe Burrow has reportedly been voicing to the Bengals that he wants to be re-united with Ja’Marr Chase. It’s a real possibility they take him at pick five, but I believe they get a stud lineman at that pick to help protect Joe Burrow. For now, my analysis below assumes they look at other positions in this upcoming draft. Let’s dive into the three wideouts to see what each has to offer for this season.

Auden Tate

With the departure of AJ Green, Auden Tate moves into the Z wide receiver position. Many people forget that Auden Tate is 6’5” 228 lbs. and stepped in adequately to fill in for the injured AJ Green in 2019.  Although he isn’t flashy, the targets will be there and someone will need to catch them. The Bengals had three 100+ target WRs last season with AJ Green getting 104. Now I don’t expect Auden Tate to eclipse 100, but I think 65-75 is a real possibility. That can be fantasy relevant to a certain extent as well as having some very relevant weeks.

Tate is 24 years of age and entering his fourth NFL season. He is practically free in dynasty formats and has WR3 upside with potential for boom games. A third or a fourth-round pick should get the job done.

Tyler Boyd

Boyd broke out in 2018 and has been startable in fantasy ever since. He produced WR2 numbers in 2018 and 2019 but disappointed fantasy managers in 2020 after Joe Burrow went down. But why is Tyler Boyd a screaming buy this offseason?

In 2019 in college at LSU, Joe Burrow targeted Justin Jefferson, the slot receiver, a team leading 111 times. Burrow loves the slot, and last season with Burrow at QB, Boyd was on pace for 110/1,136/5 before the knee injury which would have been good to finish as the WR11 in PPR. I believe it’s possible this offense with Burrow can produce two top-24 WRs for fantasy.

So, what is the cost to acquire Tyler Boyd’s services? In a 1QB PPR league, you are looking at a late first round rookie pick (1.09-1.12). In a superflex league, Boyd prices out to an early rookie second (2.01-2.04).

Tee Higgins

A lot of people slept on Tee Higgins last season. With the amount of talent in the 2020 rookie WR class, it was hard to give Higgins the respect he deserved. But all he did in 2020 was produce for fantasy. One of the more impressive things he did besides some amazing sideline catches was produce even after Joe Burrow was out. He solidified himself as the true number one WR for this offense.

Higgins has the potential to be a top 5 fantasy WR in the NFL. The community has started to realize it, which is why his price in dynasty has risen very quickly. Currently, Higgins is worth at least two first round rookie picks in a 1QB PPR league, and a first and a second in a superflex league. I actually would prefer the Higgins side in both those deals, so you would have to find an owner who is ok to part with him. I believe when it is all said and done, Tee Higgins will be the best WR from the 2020 rookie class.

Fantasy: 1QB PPR Rookie Mock

Two-round rookie 1QB PPR mock draft

By: Joe Mason @JosephMason94

1.01 – (WR) Ja’Marr Chase / WR / LSU

The best player in the draft deserves to go first. Most leagues will have Najee as the first player off the board due to positional need, but Chase is NFL ready, declared early, and lock in my opinion as the first wide receiver taken in the NFL draft. He also ran a 4.38 at his LSU pro day which is icing on the cake.

1.02 – Najee Harris / RB / Alabama

Najee has a lot of analytics and physical traits on his side that project he will succeed at the next level. With the Arizona Cardinals moving on from Drake, and the Steelers looking primed to move on from Conner, I expect Harris to get a nice landing spot.

1.03 – Javonte Williams / RB / UNC

Some of you will be surprised to see Williams go this early, especially before guys like Etienne. That being said, running backs tend to have more of an opportunity to produce right away compared to wide receivers. The need for high volume running backs forces Williams up my list and into the third slot.

1.04 – Travis Etienne / RB / Clemson

Of the top three running backs in this class, Etienne has the most upside. A dream scenario landing spot with Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh would put him in the discussion at 1.02. If Etienne lands somewhere that would complement his receiving ability, he could end up as the best back from this class.

1.05 – Kyle Pitts / TE / Florida

Kyle Pitts is the second best WR in this class who just so happens to be playing tight end. His NFL comparison is Calvin Johnson and has a phenomenal wing span (83 3/8”). Letting him slide past 1.05 is criminal. In superflex tight end premium leagues you can make an argument for him at 1.02. Oh, and he’s only 20 years old.

1.06 – DeVonta Smith / WR / Alabama

There is a reason Smith won the Heisman. There is a reason he led Alabama in receiving yards on their way to a national title. There is a reason he was the most productive WR in college this year. Do not let Smith’s smaller frame fool you.

1.07 – Rashod Bateman / WR / Minnesota

Bateman might be the most NFL ready WR in this class. He is receiving NFL comparisons to Keenan Allen and also produced in 2019 alongside the Buccaneers draft pick Tyler Johnson who also played at Minnesota.

1.08 – Jaylen Waddle / WR / Alabama

Waddle is a very intriguing prospect. He played opposite DeVonta Smith but missed most of the 2020 season due to an injury. I expect him to be a late first/early second round draft selection in late April. Also, check out this insane catch he made earlier this year:

1.09 – Rondale Moore / WR / Purdue

Moore reminds me a lot like Deebo Samuel, someone who is tough to tackle and elusive in the open field. He ran a lot of slant routes in college so look for him to develop a more complex route tree if he wants to succeed in the NFL.

1.10 – Kenneth Gainwell / RB / Memphis

Gainwell ends the WR run here late in the first. Memphis is putting out yet another impressive rookie running back, following in the footsteps of Darrell Henderson, Tony Pollard, and Antonio Gibson.

1.11 – Amon-Ra St. Brown / WR / USC

The younger brother of Green Bay Packers WR Equanimeous St. Brown, Amon-Ra played three years at USC and scored seven touchdowns in six games in 2020. His father, John Brown, is a body builder and two-time Mr. Universe.

1.12 – Terrace Marshall / WR / LSU

Marshall also ran a 4.38 at his LSU pro day and is now being discussed with first round draft potential. He caps off the first-round rookie draft as the eighth pass catcher. This 2021 class is very deep.

2.01 – Chuba Hubbard / RB / Oklahoma State

Chuba had an incredible 2019 season but put up moderate production in 2020. This has caused him to slip out of the first round of rookie drafts. I have him at 2.01 because I believe the talent is there and you can get him at a discount in drafts.

2.02 – Kadarius Toney / WR / Florida

There is a lot of variance when it comes to where to rank Toney. I have seen him go as early as late first and as late as undrafted. Some analytics I’ve seen show him as a high risk to bust. If you want him and he’s someone on your radar, you will have to spend a high second rounder to draft him.

2.03 – Michael Carter / RB / UNC

Carter is the second RB to be taken from North Carolina. Williams has the size which makes him the preferred choice, but Carter should be a value in all formats. He would be a great compliment to San Francisco’s backfield.

2.04 – Trevor Lawrence / QB / Clemson

Trevor Lawrence is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. No matter how good a quarterback is, I cannot justify taking him in the first round of a 1QB league. The early to mid-second round is a nice landing spot for a team that is weak at the QB position and can benefit from a guy who should be dominant in this league for many years. He is the only QB taken in this two round mock draft and currently the only one projected to start right away.

2.05 – Elijah Moore / WR / Ole Miss

Moore has risen up the pre-draft rankings over the past few weeks. As analysts begin to dive into the prospect film, they begin to see NFL potential. A.J. Brown has been lobbying to the Titans to draft his former Ole Miss teammate to reunite them in Nashville.

2.06 – Pat Freiermuth / TE / Penn State

The second TE off the board is Freiermuth out of Penn State. There is a reason they call him “Baby Gronk”. Freiermuth runs extremely well including impressive athletic ability for a 260-pound human being.

2.07 – Tylan Wallace / WR / Oklahoma State

At 6’0” 185 pounds with a 4.44 40 time, Wallace can move and is also very physical. Look at the video below how he maintains his balance and keeps his speed and is able to break multiple tackles to take it to the house.

2.08 – Jermar Jefferson / RB / Oregon State

The best running back in the Pac-12 is Jefferson. One thing that stands out with him is his vision. Once he finds a hole he is able to jump-cut and turn on the jets to take it to the house.

2.09 – Dyami Brown / WR / UNC

The third Tar-heel off the board in the draft is Dyami Brown. He is a very underrated WR and has some things to work on but has a promising NFL career.

2.10 – Brevin Jordan / TE / Miami

At only 20 years old, Jordan is a bit young but he actually broke out at a very young age. He had a very consistent career at Miami posting 105/1358/13 over three seasons. He needs to develop more to be NFL ready, but has some impressive raw talent.

2.11 – Kylin Hill / RB / Mississippi State

The four-year man out of Mississippi State broke out in 2019 and contributed 29% of Mississippi State’s total offensive yards. He runs hard and reminds me of Chris Carson.

2.12 – Dwayne Eskridge / WR / Western Michigan

Eskridge played five years at Western Michigan with his best season coming in 2020 where he put up 34/784/8 averaging a whopping 23 yards per catch. He broke his collarbone in 2019 but had solid 2017 & 2018 seasons having at least 30/506/3 in both. He is a bit older but he is more NFL ready than most wideouts in this draft.

Fantasy Superflex Rookie Mock

Four-round rookie superflex mock draft

By: Joe Mason @josephmason94

1.01 – (QB) Trevor Lawrence

There isn’t an easier pick than this folks. The best QB prospect since Andrew Luck is a pristine asset that will help a contending or rebuilding team. This is the only pick you don’t have to think twice about.

1.02 – (QB) Justin Fields

1.03 – (RB) Najee Harris

Najee checks all the boxes to be a successful running back in the NFL. There is an argument for him at 1.02 here, but due to quarterback scarcity in superflex he slides into this slot.

1.04 – (WR) Ja’Marr Chase

1.05 – (QB) Zach Wilson

1.06 – (RB) Travis Etienne

Etienne played the majority if his college career around 205 lbs. Clemson has its pro day on March 11th and he weighed in at 215 while running a 4.41 forty-yard dash. Etienne has the potential to be a three down running back in the NFL and he shouldn’t slide past the 1.06 mark. The extra weight may have slightly slowed him down, but his 40 time is plenty fast.

1.07 – (QB) Trey Lance

1.08 – (RB) Javonte Williams

1.09 – (WR) DeVonta Smith

1.10 – (WR) Jaylen Waddle

Back-to-back Alabama wideouts here late in the first, and Waddle has the upside and big play ability NFL teams are looking for. He goes after fellow Alabama and Heisman winner DeVonta Smith.

1.11 – (TE) Kyle Pitts

1.12 – (QB) Mac Jones

The 2020 Golden Arm award winner is arguably the most underrated rookie in this class. Jones finished with the most passing yards in college football with 4,500 while leading the Crimson Tide to a national title and undefeated record. Jones rounds off the first round as the fifth QB taken.

2.01 – (WR) Rashod Batemen

2.02 – (WR) Rondale Moore)

2.03 – (WR) Amon-Ra St. Brown

2021 rookie second round picks are extremely valuable this year and it has a lot to do with the fact that the WR class is very deep. Batemen, Moore, and St. Brown kick off the second round in style and are all very talented WRs.

2.04 – (RB) Kenneth Gainwell

2.05 – (WR) Kadarius Toney

2.06 – (WR) Elijah Moore

2.07 – (WR) Terrace Marshall

2.08 – (RB) Michael Carter

2.09 – (TE) Pat Freiermuth

The second TE off the board is Freiermuth out of Penn State. There is a reason they call him “Baby Gronk”. Freiermuth runs extremely well including impressive athletic ability for a 260 pound human being.

2.10 – (WR) Tylan Wallace

2.11 – (RB) Jermar Jefferson

2.12 – (WR) Dwayne Eskridge

3.01 – (QB) Kyle Trask

3.02 – (RB) Kylin Hill

3.03 – (WR) Tamorrion Terry

Terry is one of the most intriguing prospects in this class. The 6”4’ 210-pound prospect has wheels and is projected to run a 4.5 40. Would any defense be able to stop the Chiefs if he goes to Kansas City?

3.04 – (WR) Dyami Brown

3.05 – (TE) Brevin Jordan

3.06 – (RB) Chuba Hubbard

Chuba put up an amazing 2019 campaign but fell back down to earth in 2020. He was a projected 2021 first round pick before the 2020 season. I see Chuba as a value this late so I will happily take him in the mid third.

3.07 – (QB) Kellen Mond

3.08 – (RB) Trey Sermon

3.09 – (WR) Amari Rodgers

Amari Rodgers is the late round gem with potential upside you want to target. The 5”10’ 210 pound WR is very versatile and can line up all over the field. He would be a serious problem for linebackers to cover out of the backfield.

3.10 – (WR) Seth Williams

3.11 – (WR) Nico Collins

3.12 – (RB) Rhamondre Stevenson

At times the pro day measurements can be blown out of proportion. Stevenson has all the talent in the world to be successful in the NFL but he ended up running a 4.6 40 at his pro day at Oklahoma. Buy the dip and snag him in the late third if you can.

4.01 – (QB) Jamie Newman

4.02 – (WR) Frank Darby

Frank Darby is another late round sleeper that could potentially add some juice to your dynasty squad. He is a sneaky fourth round selection.

4.03 – (WR) Jonathan Adams Jr.

4.04 – (RB) Javian Hawkins

4.05 – (TE) Jared Rice

4.06 – (WR) Shi Smith

4.07 – (RB) Elijah Mitchell

4.08 – (WR) Cornell Powell

4.09 – (QB) Riley Ferguson

4.10 – (WR) Tutu Atwell

4.11 – (WR) Dazz Newsome

4.12 – (RB) Pooka Williams

Fantasy Football: Rookie Sleepers

Is Dwayne Eskridge the next Tyreek Hill?

By: Joe Mason @JosephMason94

The later rounds of rookie drafts can sometimes feel pointless. Most individuals are zoned in on the top three to four rookies at each position as the chances to hit are slim for late round rookies. What I can tell you from experience is that these later rookie picks do not have a great chance, but each pick is meaningful and you have a chance at finding a hidden gem. These later picks should be targeted for low-risk high reward players that have a lot of upside potential. Here are some examples of later round rookie picks by year that ended up panning out:

(2017 / Chris Godwin / 3.03)

(2018 / Josh Allen / 3.04)

(2019 / Terry McLaurin / 3.04)

(2020 / James Robinson / UND)

The odds are not great, but investing your chips into high upside players increases your chances of hitting. The below rookies are guys I have my eyes on that might not pan out in year one, but could be studs later on like the guys from the list above.

Kylin Hill (RB / Mississippi State)

Age: 22 / Height: 5’11” / Weight: 190 lbs.

The four-year man out of Mississippi State broke out in 2019 and contributed 29% of Mississippi State’s total offensive yards. In an emotional press conference last year, he opted out for the 2020 season. Hill brings elusiveness, balance, and power when he runs the football.

The San Francisco 49ers would be a great landing spot for Hill where the Shanahan system would complement his game nicely. The Houston Texans are looking for a third down back with Duke Johnson gone, so I can also see him landing in the backfield with David Johnson. Regardless, the rookie is fun to watch. He needs to work on improving his pass catching ability, but watch out for Hill in the later rounds who is currently going at 3.06 in 1QB rookie mocks.

Brevin Jordan (TE / Miami)

Age: 20 / Height: 6’3” / Weight: 245 lbs.

Kyle Pitts. Kyle Pitts. Kyle Pitts. It seems as of late all we hear about it how Pitts is the best tight end prospect we have ever seen, but this has led the rest of the TE class to be overshadowed in his hype. If Brevin Jordan was in last year’s TE rookie class, he would have been a top tier option.

At only 20 years old, Jordan is a bit young but he actually broke out at a very young age. For those who don’t know what breakout age is, its when a college player usually under 20 years old accounts for 20% of a team’s receiving yards and touchdowns. The hit rate is much higher if a player broke out before they were 20.

Jordan had a very consistent career at Miami posting 105/1358/13 over three seasons. If he lands on a team like the Los Angeles Chargers this could be great for Jordan’s dynasty outlook. Some may not consider Jordan a sleeper, but I’ve seen him ranked from rookie TE2, all the way down to TE5. His ADP is 3.01 in 1QB mocks.

Dwayne Eskridge (WR / Western Michigan)

Age: 24 / Height: 5’9” / Weight: 188 lbs.

Dwayne Eskridge might be my favorite sleeper of this class. The dude is absolutely electric and can take any slant to the house. He’s got the hands, the route running, and the 4.4 speed to make big plays over the top of defenses. Teams have been looking for the next Tyreek Hill and we’ve seen speed lead to high draft capital with Ruggs in 2020 and Ross in 2017 but both of them have not played up to expectations just yet. I believe Eskridge has the tools to make an impact at the next level and his rookie ADP of 3.02 is too low.

Eskridge played five years at Western Michigan with his best season coming in 2020 where he put up 34/784/8 averaging a whopping 23 yards per catch. He broke his collarbone in 2019 but had solid 2017 & 2018 seasons having at least 30/506/3 in both. He is a bit older but he is more NFL ready than most wideouts in this draft.

If you have some time, go watch his highlight tape from 2020. Grab some popcorn and watch Eskridge turn regular plays into chunk gains and big play touchdowns. He recently interviewed with Mackenzie Salmon and guaranteed he would run a 4.2 at his pro day on March 21st.  He’s currently a day three prospect but a 4.2 40 would move him up to at least day two.

Top Destinations For Najee Harris

Which Team Will Draft Najee Harris?

By: Joe Mason @JosephMason94

Najee Harris is arguably the best running back from the 2021 rookie class. Where could we see him shine? The five-star high school prospect out of California put up a solid 2019 at Alabama after taking over for Harris/Jacobs and exploded onto the scene in 2020 with a breakout season. He has the talent to succeed, but the right landing spot could make him a fantasy darling in 2021.

New York Jets

The Jets had another unsuccessful year in 2019 with Adam Gase as head coach. But the days of him as head coach are gone as they have brought in former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to start the team on a fresh note. Saleh brought with him former offensive assistant Mike LaFleur to join as the new offensive coordinator. LaFleur is the younger brother of Packers head coach Mike and also served under Kyle Shanahan for the past four seasons. I fully expect LaFleur to bring over similarities from the 49ers run game that creates massive run lanes for Raheem Mostert.

The 49ers run game has always had success under Kyle Shanahan and imagine Najee exploding through some nice runways. The Jets did not have a good year with their offensive line finishing at 29th overall according to Pro Football Focus, but they have a great tackle in Mekhi Becton that they took at eleventh overall in last year’s draft. Becton has the ability to be a legit stud in the NFL for the next decade. If the Jets continue to invest in their offensive line, things would look great for Najee in New York.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers started off 11-0 but could not keep the momentum they had built earlier in the season, falling to the Browns in the wildcard round of the playoffs. The team was nearly complete on offense and defense despite one position: Running Back.

James Conner entered the year as the lead back for the steelers and posted consistent games in the first six of seven with double-digit fantasy scoring. Of the remaining nine games in the schedule, Conner missed three due to injury (a recurring theme) and only scored double digits three more times that year. The Steelers were not able to produce meaningful games from the running back position with McFarland, Snell, and Samuels sharing the load. The team needs a three-down running back.

The Steelers have the 24th pick in the upcoming draft. The last running back that went in the top 24 was Josh Jacobs, Najee’s Alabama teammate back in 2018. It’s entirely possible the Steelers go running back at 24, or they can even trade back into the early second round and select one there. If Najee lands with the Steelers, he has top fifteen potential and could even out-produce Le’Veon Bell’s rookie year from 2013 with Pittsburgh.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This really is a dream scenario for Najee Harris, but I don’t think it’s likely given Tampa Bay’s draft needs and their pick location in the draft. Last year the team spent a third-round draft pick on Ke’Shawn Vaughn. The dynasty community went bonkers for him after Bruce Arians took David Johnson years earlier with the Cardinals in the third. Vaughn never was able to see much of the field after Ronald Jones played surprisingly well despite a few drops. A lot of people blamed the offensive inconsistency at times on the running back position.

Leonard Fournette was then available and signed with the Buccaneers on a one-year deal but he as well struggles with drops. Arians obviously didn’t feel comfortable putting Vaughn out there over the other two, even if he was the superior pass catcher. The Bucs were able to compensate for the drops at the running back position, but they need to shore up that portion of the offense if they don’t want a clear tell in what play they are running based on who lines up in the backfield.

One thing that is for sure; Najee Harris can run and catch the ball extremely well for his size. The Bucs could snag him at pick 32 or trade up in the second to grab him. Adding Harris to this offense would give them top three offensive potentials and would significantly overwhelm defenses. With too many weapons to cover and the best QB of all-time behind center, there’s plenty of fantasy points to go around in this offense.

Dynasty: Top 6 Rookies to Target

Which RBs Make The List?

By: Joe Mason @josephmason94

The NFL offseason is upon us and lucky for you if you play dynasty, there is no offseason! The best way to build your team is through the rookie draft, so which guys should you target? These six rookie gems need to be on the top of everyone’s draft boards for their raw talent and upside. Let’s dive in!

*Please note the below measurements are not official and the player age is their age at the time of the upcoming NFL draft.

DeVonta Smith (WR / Alabama)

Age: 22 / Height: 6’1” / Weight: 175 lbs.

What better prospect to start with than the 2021 Heisman winner. Smith put up 117/1856/23 in his senior season while also dropping 12/215/3 in the national title game. Just wow. The electric player can create separation with ease, has shown strong hands, and has been a go-to in the redzone for quarterback Mac Jones.

Some people give Smith a hard time for his below average frame (175 lbs) which is smaller than Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (180 lbs). I don’t see this being an issue for his on the field production, but this could cause him to fall in rookie drafts. All that means is you get him at a discount. Also, something to note, he had a better 2020 season than Henry Ruggs, who was the first WR taken in the 2020 NFL draft. I had him better than Ruggs last year, so the sky is the limit for this kid.

If you can play in the NFL, teams won’t hold you back, especially if they drop first round draft capital. Players with below average height/weight have had success in the NFL. Some examples are Darren Sproles, Kyler Murray. Tyreek Hill, Delanie Walker, and Tarik Cohen.

Smith is currently going at the 1.04 in 1QB rookie mock drafts. I anticipate him falling to the 1.05-1.07 range after other rookies head to good landing spots and the hype starts moving their ADP. I will take that value all day. Although he is not my rookie WR1 in this draft class, you can’t go wrong with DeVonta Smith. I have his ideal landing spot as the Miami Dolphins where they reunite him with Tua Tagovalioa.

Kyle Pitts (TE / Florida)

Age: 20 / Height: 6’6” / Weight: 246 lbs.

At only 20 years old, Kyle Pitts won the John Mackey Most Outstanding Tight End Award, joining the likes of T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Kellen Winslow, and Dallas Clark. His 6’6” height and slim frame should put him as the second pass catcher off the draft board, and as long as he stays a tight end in the NFL, he drops in as the dynasty TE4 right off the bat only behind Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

Pitts junior year at Florida was a productive one. In only 8 games he recorded 43/770/12 on a 17.9 yards per catch. He finished fifth in the SEC in touchdowns and sixth in receiving yards even with the low number of games played. The only knock on him currently is his blocking which to evolve in the NFL he will need to put on weight and work on his pass/run blocking ability. His NFL comp is Darren Waller but Pitts has the ability to stretch the field. He has a release off the line similar to George Kittle and is a matchup nightmare for linebackers due to speed and cornerbacks due to his height.

There are a couple potential landing spots where Pitts could contribute right away. The Chargers would be intriguing with Justin Herbert, and the Cowboys would be a complete offense if they snag Pitts. I have his ideal location as Arizona where the Cardinals would benefit greatly from a presence over the middle and would help Hopkins out with another legitimate target in the offense.

Javonte Williams (RB / UNC)

Age: 21 / Height: 5’10” / Weight: 220 lbs.

The most intriguing guy on this list is Javonte Williams. Since we entered the offseason, Williams has seen all the twitter hype and is currently the dark horse for the RB1 of this class. Williams does everything well and put up 157/1140/19 even with a strong RB2 at UNC with him in Michael Carter.

He is currently going at the 1.07 in rookie mocks, but I fully expect him to be a top 5 rookie pick if he finds a good home in the NFL draft. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was rookie RB4 or RB5 last year and catapulted up to the 1.01 in most rookie drafts. This easily could happen to Williams. If he goes to a bad landing spot with a crowded backfield, all it means is he can be acquired for a discount in the draft or via trade. His talent level belongs in the top six rookies. Something I have learned since playing dynasty is talent > landing spot every time.

Where could Williams utilize his talent fully? His ideal landing spot for me is the San Francisco 49ers. I have not seen the 49ers spend high draft capital on a running back since Carlos Hyde in 2014. Williams is a projected early day two pick, so he would need to fall in the draft to make John Lynch interested in him. One thing for sure is if coach Shanahan likes a running back, he tells the GM to go get his guy.

Najee Harris (RB / Alabama)

Age: 23 / Height: 6’2” / Weight: 230 lbs.

The consensus 1.01 pre-landing spot in the 2021 class is Alabama’s Najee Harris. His size and speed combo make him a lethal prospect who can run between the tackles and also catch the ball. In his senior season in 2020, Harris put up his best production with a 251/1466/26 rushing line and a 43/425/4 receiving line. Many considered this the best Alabama offense of all time and they delivered in a big way winning the national championship game over Ohio State.

Harris is a bit of a late bloomer, but he did have to play behind guys like Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs at Alabama. Harris will be 23 by the time the NFL draft kicks off, and he is less than a year younger than Josh Jacobs who is entering his third year in the NFL. The age isn’t a deal breaker for me, but if you read my article on how to evaluate a trade in dynasty, just know Harris might have a smaller fantasy relevant window than some of these other younger running backs. One thing for sure is when he leads the backfield, he produces.

So where would Najee land and have a chance to produce right away? I have his ideal landing spot as the New York Jets. The Jets have recently invested in their offensive line, and have two first round picks (2) (23 from Seattle). Paired with a new top QB, Harris would be the lead back right away. In the NFL, I expect him to put up plays and make the highlight real on ESPN like he did against Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl.

Travis Etienne (RB / Clemson)

Age: 22 / Height: 5’10” / Weight: 205 lbs.

In the loaded 2020 rookie running back class, some analysts had Travis Etienne as their RB1. He surprisingly decided to return to Clemson for the 2021 season. Etienne is arguably the best pass catcher we have seen come out of college in a long time.

In his senior season, Etienne put up 168/914/14 on the ground while catching 18/588/2 through the air. His best season came in 2019 where he put up his 2nd straight 1600+ rushing year going 207/1614/19 on 37/432/4 through the air. What a 2019 year Etienne had.

Some people question Etienne’s ability to be a true three down back citing he has some problems running between the tackles. In fantasy we have seen running backs with the ability to produce without running the ball efficiently, and just being able to catch the ball brings true upside and value. I see his pass catching ability as tremendous upside that would put Etienne near the top if he can land in the right place.

Just from viewing the tape, its safe to say Etienne will thrive if he can land in the right place that will throw him the ball in space, and allow him to use his skills to make defenders miss while breaking big plays. I have his ideal landing spot as Pittsburgh. Big Ben throws the ball to the running back position and this surrounding cast with the volume Etienne would get would make him an RB1 candidate out the gate.

Ja’Marr Chase (WR / LSU)

Age: 21 / Height: 6’0” / Weight: 208 lbs.

Many have Ja’Marr Chase as the top wideout in the class, and I have to agree with the majority. Chase offers the physical specimen, the athletic ability, and the high football IQ to be a successful NFL player at the next level.

Chase only has one full season of college production to show for, but boy was it a season. In his sophomore year at LSU, he put up 84/1780/20 which by the way was better than Justin Jefferson’s (111/1540/18). Chase ended up opting out on the 2020 season due to COVID concerns. He has been spending his time focusing on preparing his body for the speed and toughness of the NFL. This recent picture of Devonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase show that Chase has put on the muscle to go break presses and win contested catches at the next level.

Chase is the best all-around WR talent in this class. He brings a safe floor with plenty of upside giving me a valid reason to take him as the top wideout in this class. I have his ideal landing spot at the Eagles where he would lead the WR room and produce immediately with Jalen Hurts. The Eagles need a true alpha WR and Chase is the perfect fit for this system.

Dynasty Quarterbacks to Sell Away

Which QB Needs to Sell High on?

By: Joe Mason @josephmason94

Matthew Stafford (DET)

On January 31st, 2021 Stafford was traded in a blockbuster deal to the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams gave up Jared Goff along with two future first-round picks and a third-round pick. Stafford will be joining arguably the best supporting cast he has ever had in his twelve-year career. But is it time to sell high on the hype of his new landing spot?

Since his breakout year in 2011 where he threw for 5000 yards and 41 passing touchdowns, Stafford has only thrown more than 30 passing touchdowns once. He just turned 33 this month, and has two years left on his current contract.

Stafford is as tough as them come. In 2020 he apparently played the entire year with some type on injury, but what if he is always hurt? Are we ever getting Matt Stafford at 100%? He is a sell for me because I don’t believe we will ever get a 16-game season with him staying healthy.

I would be comfortable parting with Stafford for a first-round pick plus. Something along the lines of a mid to late first and Courtland Sutton. You might be able to get more for him and I’ve seen dynasty managers all in on Stafford to the Rams.  It never hurts to hear what someone has to offer after putting a player on the trade block.

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

I’ll admit this one is a bold take, but hear me out. Lamar Jackson is only 24, was the MVP of the league in 2019, and has put together back-to-back QB1 seasons as the leader of the Baltimore Ravens. What’s not to love right?

My stance with Lamar is you need to treat him as a QB/RB hybrid due to the amount of hits he takes from his rushing volume. Since Jackson entered the league in 2018, only 24 running backs have more rushing attempts than he does. His 482 rush attempts support low-end RB2 numbers.

I don’t know about you, but I personally don’t want my most valuable dynasty asset taking 10-15 hits a game. In the long run the injury risk may not be worth the reward.

Now this rushing volume is what makes Lamar an elite QB option at the position. I anticipate getting two to three more top years out of Lamar, but if he ever loses efficiently on the ground, what would happen? If you take away his rushing stats, Lamar would have finished as the QB21 in 2020 but still would have been the QB5 in his MVP 2019 season. He can still put up great numbers through the air, but you lose out on his safe rushing floor if he ever loses that juice.

Depending on the status of your team, what could you get for a guy like Lamar Jackson? If you are a contender, I would not sell him and ride the top 10 projection for at least the next two years. If you are unsure or are in a rebuild, you can fetch at least three first round picks for Lamar Jackson in a superflex league.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)

The great Aaron Rodgers has found himself on the sell list. Since he came into the league and took over for Brett Farve, Rodgers has been an absolute stud. Unfortunately, no one can play forever, not even Brett Farve. So, when are the wheels going to fall off the tracks for Rodgers?

After a disappointing 2019, many analysts thought Rodgers may have hit the first stages of his decline. He was very inconsistent in 2019 but much of it was due to new coach Matt LeFleur and the new run first play calling. After all that, Rodgers bounced back with an impressive QB2 finish and he finished with more TD passes than the Packers had punts.

But when will Rodgers decline begin? I am hearing around the fantasy community that most people think Rodgers has one to two elite years left. When I sell a player in dynasty, I always want to make sure I am at least one year ahead of the decline. Once the decline has started, your return value only gets worse.

Is there another opportunity to sell Rodgers for what his value is now? I see this as his ceiling. Sure, Tom Brady has played into his mid-40s but that is an outlier. Rodgers can be sold for the likes of two first round draft picks or an up-and-coming QB and a first. The worst thing you could do is wait until its too late.

3 Fantasy Second-Year Breakout Candidates: Adam Trautman Can Replace Jared Cook

Which 2020 rookies have a chance to breakout in 2021?

By: Joe Mason @JosephMason94

Rookies that have a quiet or disappointing first year offer opportunities for a discount on their fantasy value. In 2019, guys like Josh Allen, Mark Andrews, and D.J Moore all made giant step ups from their 2018 rookie campaign. Last year in 2020, guys like T.J. Hockenson, Diontae Johnson, and Kyler Murray all made significant strides moving near the top at their position.

There are some obvious guys that I believe will bounce back such as Tua or Jeudy, but I want to call out some guys who are under the radar that have low risk high reward returns.

Quintez Cephus (DET)

Cephus had a relatively quiet rookie year putting up 20/349/2 on 35 targets but he did so in the shadows of Golladay, Jones, Amendola, and Hockenson. The reason he is on the year two breakout list is because the talent is there, and he’s the only wideout currently under contract for the Lions in 2021.

Cephus received a second/third round grade but fell to the fifth round out of Wisconsin after some off the field issues. He missed his entire 2018 college campaign but returned in 2019 after the charges were dropped. He is not a fast receiver, but his play style dictates physicality and he makes the contested catches.

Pre-2020 NFL draft, Ohio States Jeff Okudah, who some regarded as a top five talent and top cornerback in the class, gave his thoughts on who gave him the most trouble in college.

Cephus has the potential to be the next Cooper Kupp for Jared Goff. With the departures of Golladay and Jones likely, Cephus will have all the opportunity in the world to contribute in 2021. The Lions likely take a WR in the upcoming NFL draft, but even if they go with Ja’Marr Chase at seventh overall, I still like Cephus’s chances to contribute. It will just mean that his price would be even cheaper to acquire. He can be had for a 2021 third round pick and has top 36 WR upside.

Adam Trautman (NO)

Trautman did not play much in his rookie year, putting up 15/171/1 on 16 targets in 15 games. He came from Dayton which is a smaller school but hung 70/916/14 in his last year in college.

2020 was not a great class for tight ends, especially with the upcoming 2021 class led by Kyle Pitts. Pre-draft a lot of analysts were split between Trautman and Kmet for which TE was going to lead the class. Trautman ended up being the fifth TE selected in the 2020 NFL draft in the third round to New Orleans. We know coach Sean Payton likes his tight ends, so Trautman instantly was on the radar after being selected.

He slotted in behind Jared Cook on the depth chart but was very impressive in camp. Coaches and players nominated him as the best rookie performer in camp during the 2020 pre-season. With the Saints in trouble with their current cap situation, look for Jared Cook to sign elsewhere. I fully expect Trautman to be the TE1 for the Saints in 2021.

DeeJay Dallas (SEA)

In a fantastic running back class in 2020 led by guys such as Swift, Taylor, and Dobbins, Dallas is somewhat of a hidden gem. DeeJay was selected in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL draft out of Miami, where he put up 833 all-purpose yards with eight touchdowns in his final year in college.

Seattle decided to invest in a running back in the middle rounds knowing Rashaad Penny would most likely not be able to play after he tore his ACL in 2019. Dallas began the year and the third RB on the depth chart behind Carson and Hyde. As injuries pilled up at the RB position in Seattle, Dallas got his chance to start in week eight.

Dallas finished as the RB3 in week eight in his first NFL action. The reason why he is on this list is he has a chance to either lead or split the backfield work with Penny with the unknown future of Carson and Hyde who are both UFAs this upcoming offseason. He can produce on the ground and through the air, and any RB on the Seahawks is a player I want in fantasy especially after Pete Carroll commented he wants to commit more to the running game for the Seahawks in 2021. Dallas can be acquired for a third-round rookie pick.

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