Home PFM Methodology

PFM ratings are built to answer a simple football question: how good is each NFL team right now, and how much should we trust it going forward?

How the PFM Team Score works

The overall score combines quarterback stability, roster strength, coaching, recent results, offense, defense and franchise direction. The formula gives the most weight to the parts of a team that are hardest to overcome.

25%

QB Stability

Quarterback play, job security and the strength of the plan behind the starter.

20%

Roster Strength

The quality and depth of the full roster, not just the biggest names.

15%

Coaching Direction

An imported pipeline grade that balances head coach resume with what the current staff is doing now.

15%

Recent Performance

What the team has actually put on the field in the most recent sample.

10%

Offense Strength

How much the offense can consistently create and finish drives.

10%

Defense Strength

How well the defense can limit points, pressure offenses and hold up across a full game.

5%

Franchise Direction

The long-term health of the roster, quarterback plan, draft capital and competitive window.

Coaching Direction

Calculated in the local PFM pipeline

Head Coach Resume 25%, Current Staff Performance 25%, Coordinator Stability 20%, Player Development 15%, Culture / Buy-In 10% and Game Management 5%.

Season Outlook

No made-up playoff percentage

PFM uses clear outlook tiers on team pages. A real playoff probability would need its own schedule, injury, opponent and tiebreaker model.

How to read the PFM Team Score

90+Championship Favorite 87–89.9Super Bowl Caliber 80–86.9Playoff Team 74–79.9Competitive 70–73.9Rebuilding Below 70Full Rebuild
PFM Data UpdateUpdated

PFM ratings are updated regularly throughout the year.

How PFM grades NFL teams

What the ratings are designed to show

PFM is not just a standings table. A team can have a good record and still carry real warning signs. Another team can be better than its record if the quarterback, roster and football strengths point in the right direction.

What PFM does not claim

PFM Team Score is not a betting line, a game prediction or a precise playoff probability. Those questions need a separate model that accounts for schedule, injuries, opponents and playoff tiebreakers.

When the rankings change

Ratings are updated regularly throughout the year when the data changes. Quarterback movement, roster changes, coaching results and what happens on the field can all move a team up or down.