The best quarterback is not always part of the most stable quarterback room.
A normal quarterback ranking starts with one player. How accurate is he? How much can he create after the first read disappears? Can he keep the offense alive when protection breaks down?
Those questions matter, and they drive half of the QB Stability grade. They still leave out too much. A team can have an elite starter and a fragile quarterback situation. Another can have a less exciting passer but far fewer ways for the position to fall apart.
How PFM Calculates QB Stability
QB Play is the biggest piece, so that is the focus here. The other four parts of QB Stability deserve their own breakdown.
QB Play: 50%
PFM separates a quarterback’s current statistical performance from the overall stability of his team’s quarterback room.
QB Play measures what the quarterback did on the field. It uses nflverse and nflfastR regular-season play-by-play data through the selected week. Playoff statistics are not included.
Only legitimate quarterback dropbacks count. Special-teams plays, kneel-downs and spikes are removed. A play qualifies as a dropback when it is identified as a quarterback dropback, pass attempt or sack.
A quarterback must have at least 150 dropbacks to receive a QB Play rating.
The QB Play Formula
QB Play =
35% EPA per Dropback
20% Success Rate
20% Touchdown Rate
15% Interception Avoidance
10% Sack AvoidanceEPA per Dropback: 35%
EPA stands for Expected Points Added. It estimates how much each dropback improved or hurt the offense’s expected scoring position.
Positive EPA is good. Negative EPA is bad. Sacks count as dropbacks, so the damage from those plays is part of the quarterback’s efficiency.
EPA gets the most weight because it captures overall dropback efficiency better than passing yards or completion percentage alone.
Success Rate: 20%
Success Rate measures how often the quarterback’s dropbacks are classified as successful by the nflverse play-by-play model.
EPA can swing on a few enormous plays. Success Rate adds a consistency check by showing how often the quarterback keeps the offense moving.
Touchdown Rate: 20%
PFM calculates touchdown rate as:
Passing touchdowns + 55% of rushing touchdowns
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Total quarterback dropbacksRushing touchdowns receive partial credit. That recognizes what a quarterback can add with his legs while keeping QB Play centered on passing and dropback performance.
Interception Avoidance: 15%
Interception rate is calculated as:
Interceptions
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Pass attemptsLower is better. Quarterbacks who protect the ball receive the stronger Interception Avoidance ratings.
Sack Avoidance: 10%
Sack rate is calculated as:
Sacks
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Quarterback dropbacksLower is better. Not every sack belongs entirely to the quarterback, but pocket management and getting the ball out still matter.
Converting Statistics Into PFM Ratings
EPA, touchdown rate and sack rate live on different scales, so PFM first converts each statistic into a percentile against the other qualifying quarterbacks.
That percentile is then translated to the PFM football-rating scale:
PFM rating = 60 + (percentile / 100 x 35)The result is a simple football scale:
90-95: Elite
85-89: Very strong
80-84: Good
75-79: Average to above average
70-74: Below average
60-69: PoorHigher is better for EPA, Success Rate and Touchdown Rate. Interception Rate and Sack Rate are reversed so lower rates earn higher scores. The five ratings are then combined using the QB Play weights above.
QB Stability Is Not the Same as a Quarterback Ranking
A quarterback ranking asks how good the starter is right now. QB Stability steps back and grades the complete setup. Reading the two together gives a much clearer picture than either number can provide alone.
| Question | Quarterback Ranking | QB Stability |
|---|---|---|
| Who is being judged? | The starting quarterback | The entire quarterback room |
| What matters most? | Current quarterback performance | Play, availability, job security, age and depth |
| What does a high grade mean? | The starter gives the offense high-level play | The team can trust the position across more situations |
| Can an elite quarterback rank lower? | His talent still grades highly | Yes, when the full room carries more risk |
Five Quarterback Rooms That Show Why the Difference Matters
The easiest way to understand QB Stability is to look at teams where the starter’s reputation and the full-room grade do not say the same thing.
Joe Burrow Is Elite and Cincinnati Has a Real Backup
Burrow’s place among the NFL’s best quarterbacks is not the debate. His timing, ball placement and control of Cincinnati’s passing game give the Bengals a real advantage. QB Stability asks what happens if he misses time again.
Joe Flacco gives Cincinnati a proven answer behind him. He is not Burrow, but he can still run an NFL offense and make the throws this roster needs. Josh Johnson adds another experienced option behind them. That depth gives Cincinnati one of the safer quarterback rooms in the league. See Cincinnati’s full team outlook.
Patrick Mahomes Shows Why Availability Still Matters
Mahomes can solve late downs in ways almost no quarterback can match. Kansas City’s question is not whether he is talented enough. It is how close he is to his normal movement and off-script creation while working back from the ACL injury that has shaped his summer.
That is exactly where QB Stability differs from a talent list. Mahomes can remain one of the league’s best players while availability creates a separate question for the room. Justin Fields also gives Kansas City a more experienced fallback if Mahomes needs more time. See Kansas City’s full team outlook.
Aaron Rodgers Can Still Make Throws, but Age Lowers the Margin for Error
Rodgers’ experience and arm talent can still help Pittsburgh win. He also enters 2026 at 42 years old, so availability has to carry more weight than it would for a younger starter.
QB Stability does not say age makes Rodgers ineffective. It says Pittsburgh’s floor is tied closely to him staying healthy and decisive. That is a different question than whether Rodgers can still play quarterback at a high level. See Pittsburgh’s full team outlook.
Cleveland’s Open Quarterback Battle Is a Stability Problem by Itself
Cleveland can like traits in more than one quarterback and still have an unstable room. An unsettled starting job affects practice reps, the offensive game plan and how quickly the offense can settle around one player. Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders are still competing for the job as Week 1 gets closer.
The grade is not predicting who wins the competition. It is recognizing that a team without a clear starter carries more uncertainty than a team that already knows who will run the offense. See Cleveland’s full team outlook.
Sam Darnold Shows How Stability Can Matter More Than Star Power
Darnold does not need to rank with Mahomes, Josh Allen or Burrow for Seattle’s quarterback room to be stable. He is the established starter in an offense that already knows how it wants to play, which gives the Seahawks a dependable base.
That does not make Darnold the better individual quarterback. It means Seattle can have fewer immediate questions at the position than the starter’s national reputation suggests. Stability and star power are not interchangeable. See Seattle’s full team outlook.
What the QB Stability Rankings Are Really Telling You
A high QB Stability grade means a team has fewer reasons to panic at the most important position. The starter can play, the job is clear and the room has enough support to keep one bad stretch from turning into a season-long crisis.
A lower grade can come from several different problems. One team may have an open competition. Another may have a great starter with real availability concerns. A third may trust the starter but have almost no answer behind him. The number matters, but the reason behind it matters more.
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