There are plenty of players I like this year who I still will not draft at their current price. Josh Jacobs, Rashee Rice, Derrick Henry, Cam Skattebo and Mike Evans all fall into that group for me right now.
I still have every one of them ranked as a fantasy starter or better. The problem is where they are coming off the board. My latest half-PPR rankings are lower than the current draft price on all five, and in most drafts I keep finding someone else I would rather take.
This is not a do-not-draft list. If the price falls closer to my ranking, the conversation changes fast. The player can be good and still be a bad pick at the wrong spot.
Josh Jacobs and Rashee Rice were my two picks in FantasyPros’ latest expert roundup on players to avoid at ADP. I added Derrick Henry, Cam Skattebo and Mike Evans after comparing the same PFM board with current FantasyPros Half-PPR ADP. Read the FantasyPros expert roundup.
Where My Rankings Disagree With the Price
The biggest thing I am looking for here is not whether my ranking is different by two or three spots. These are players where the draft room is asking me to take them earlier than my current board. Cam Skattebo has the biggest gap but all five are expensive enough that I keep noticing it when they reach the clock.
| Player | PFM | Pos. | FantasyPros ADPFP ADP | PFM Lower By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rashee RiceWR18 |
38 | WR18 | 30PFM 8 lower | 8 spots |
 Cam SkatteboRB22 |
55 | RB22 | 35PFM 20 lower | 20 spots |
 Mike EvansWR32 |
74 | WR32 | 63PFM 11 lower | 11 spots |
 Josh JacobsRB17 |
44 | RB17 | 29PFM 15 lower | 15 spots |
 Derrick HenryRB12 |
26 | RB12 | 18PFM 8 lower | 8 spots |
Josh Jacobs: I’m Not Paying for the Touchdown Repeat
Jacobs can still finish as an RB1. That is not what I am arguing against. The issue is that his current price asks me to draft him like the touchdown production is coming right back.
He scored 13 rushing touchdowns last season while averaging under four yards per carry. That is a tough combination to chase because the best way for Jacobs to beat this ranking is another big touchdown year.
Add the groin issue he has already dealt with this summer and I would rather use that late-third-round pick on a player whose path does not need as much to repeat. There is also a possible suspension coming for Jacobs and we still haven’t gotten much clarity on that matter.
Closer to No. 44 overall. FantasyPros ADP is 29, and I usually have someone else ahead of Jacobs there.
Rashee Rice: The Price Assumes Too Much Goes Right
Rice can pile up catches when he is on the field. I am still lower than a top-30 overall price for a receiver whose fantasy value leans so heavily on short targets, yards after the catch and volume staying concentrated.
His aDOT (average depth of target) was under five yards last season and nearly three quarters of his receiving yards came after the catch. That can absolutely work in Kansas City. It also means the margin gets thinner if the target share comes down, the offense spreads the ball around more or Rice misses time again.
I have him at No. 38 overall. That is still a starter. The gap is not massive, but it is enough that I usually have another player ahead of him when Rice comes up around pick 30.
Closer to No. 38 overall. FantasyPros ADP is 30, so I need a small slide before Rice becomes my pick.
Derrick Henry: I’m Not Chasing Another 300-Carry Season
Henry keeps making the age conversation look stupid. He ran for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns on 307 carries last season at 31 years old. If he does it again at 32, he can beat this ranking easily.
I just do not want to spend a mid-second-round pick assuming another 300-carry season is coming. Baltimore has a new staff, Henry is coming off another massive workload and even a modest drop in carries makes that price harder to return. He does not catch enough passes to give you the same safety net as some of the backs going around him.
RB12 is not me fading Henry into the ground. I still want him. I just have him closer to the end of Round 2 than the middle of it.
Closer to No. 26 overall. FantasyPros ADP is 18, which is a little earlier than I want to pay for another huge workload.
Cam Skattebo: The Draft Cost Is Ahead of the Backfield
Skattebo is being drafted like the Giants are ready to hand the backfield back to him. I do not think we know that yet.
He spent the summer working back from the ankle injury and New York just added Najee Harris to a room that already had Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary. Harris does not have to take over the job to hurt this price. If he takes enough early-down work or goal-line carries to keep the touches split, Skattebo suddenly needs more passing-game work to justify a pick around No. 35.
The upside is still there. The clear lead-back role is what I am not willing to assume yet.
Closer to No. 55 overall. FantasyPros ADP is 35, which is too early for the amount of backfield uncertainty I see.
Mike Evans: I Like the Fit More Than the Price
Evans with Brock Purdy makes sense. San Francisco needed a proven outside receiver and the early camp reports already have the two connecting down the field. The football fit is not the reason I am lower.
The price is still asking a 33-year-old receiver changing teams to carry a reliable weekly starter floor. Evans has missed 12 games over the past two seasons and his quad has already interrupted camp more than once. He returned to full practice on August 15th then left the August 18th joint practice early with quad tightness. None of that means he is finished. It is enough for me to want a discount.
At WR32, I can live with some missed time or a slower adjustment to a new offense. At FantasyPros ADP 63, I still have him about a round lower before I am comfortable taking on that risk.
Closer to No. 74 overall. I like Evans much more once the price moves into the range where my board has him.
The Player Is Not Always the Problem
That is the part I keep coming back to with this list. Jacobs, Rice, Henry, Skattebo and Evans can all have good seasons. A few of them probably will.
Fantasy drafts still force you to put a price on that outcome. My board is telling me the room is paying too much for these five right now, so I keep moving to the next name.
See My Updated Fantasy Football RankingsRanks updated: PFM rankings and FantasyPros Half-PPR consensus ADP shown above were reviewed August 21, 2026. The PFM board was last updated August 20.
Sources & Review
- FantasyPros: 24 Fantasy Football Players Experts Avoid at ADP and 2026 Half-PPR ADP — published Josh Jacobs/Rashee Rice expert picks and the current consensus draft prices used in this article.
- PFM: 2026 Fantasy Football Rankings — current PFM overall and position ranks.
- NFL.com: Derrick Henry embracing Ravens’ new era — 2025 workload/production and 2026 coaching context.
- Giants.com: Giants sign Najee Harris and Giants training-camp tracker — current New York backfield and Skattebo return context.
- 49ers.com: Evans returns to full practice, NFL.com: August 18 injury update and NFL.com: NFC West preview — Evans’ current fit, age and recent availability context.
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