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Justin Herbert has the arm talent to punish loaded boxes, and Jim Harbaugh can keep him out of pure dropback football with the run game. The defense can move Derwin James Jr. around to disguise pressure and coverage. The offensive line has to stay healthy after protection injuries repeatedly changed the offense.
See how the PFM category ratings shape Los Angeles.
The Chargers can win through either side of the ball. On offense, Los Angeles uses a physical run and play-action plan, with Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey as the main playmakers. On defense, the team uses a disguised-pressure scheme.
Big-play production is the swing factor. More explosive plays would take the pressure off of Justin Herbert.
Herbert is the reason the Chargers sit 4th in QB Stability even while the offense leans on the run and calculated deep shots. Interior pressure is the pressure point because it can erase both parts of that formula at once.
Los Angeles is one of the few teams with both the offense and defense in the strength range. A physical run and play-action offense can build a lead, while a disguised-pressure defense can protect it.
The Chargers win by running with authority, keeping Herbert clean and letting the defense vary its pressure looks.
The Chargers are most exposed in interior-pressure games where the run game disappears and Herbert has to throw from obvious passing situations. Those games put a spotlight on offensive-line health after protection injuries repeatedly changed the offense.
Los Angeles ranks No. 3 in schedule difficulty, with an average opponent PFM Score of 82.1 and 10 games against current top-10 teams. Five of those top-10 matchups are away, while the next 5 opponents average 81.6.
Toughest remaining opponent: Seattle Seahawks at 91.3 PFM.
These are the two closest on-field builds in the PFM ratings. The similarities matter, but so do the differences.
The Broncos are the closest match because both teams lean on coaching to turn the pieces into a complete plan. The Chargers lean on a physical run and play-action offense, while the Broncos lean on a pressure-and-coverage defense. The Chargers have the better answer at quarterback.
The Eagles are another close match because both teams trust the quarterback to set the weekly ceiling. The Chargers get there through a physical run and play-action offense; the Eagles are built around a power-run and RPO offense. The Eagles have the deeper roster.
Denver and Kansas City make the AFC West race unusually unforgiving. A physical run and play-action plan gives Los Angeles enough to stay in the race. The remaining problem is offensive-line health after protection injuries repeatedly changed the offense.
The Chargers are 0–1 in their only Super Bowl appearance.
