PFM Ratings
Five NFL teams are one answer away from changing how PFM sees them before Week 1. Each has a clear football question that could move its outlook up a tier.
Denver needs more explosive plays. Washington needs its defense to take pressure off Jayden Daniels. Minnesota needs Kyler Murray to settle the quarterback position. Miami needs more big plays from the passing game and Cleveland still needs somebody to win the starting job.
None of them needs a perfect August. Each sits within 1.1 PFM points of a better outlook tier. If those areas look different by Week 1, the rankings could move too.
| Team | PFM Rank | PFM Score | Next Outlook | Gap | Grade to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denver Broncos |
No. 9 | 85.1 | Super Bowl Contender | 0.9 | Explosiveness 74.8 |
 Washington Commanders |
No. 18 | 79.0 | Playoff Contender | 1.0 | Defense 75.4 |
 Minnesota Vikings |
No. 19 | 78.9 | Playoff Contender | 1.1 | QB Stability 76.4 |
 Miami Dolphins |
No. 24 | 75.2 | In the Playoff Mix | 0.8 | Explosiveness 70.2 |
 Cleveland Browns |
No. 30 | 71.4 | Needs More Help | 0.6 | QB Stability 67.0 |
Denver Is Good Enough. Now the Offense Needs More Easy Yards.
Denver does not need to reinvent itself. Sean Payton gives the Broncos one of the better coaching situations in football and the defense built around Patrick Surtain II is already No. 4 in PFM.
The problem is that the offense can still make every scoring drive look harder than it needs to be.
That is where Jaylen Waddle comes in. Denver traded for the type of receiver it was missing, somebody who can turn one throw into 40 yards and punish a defense for creeping forward. Bo Nix has already flashed more of that downfield game in camp. Now it has to become part of the offense instead of an occasional bonus.
PFM learned something about Denver last season too. We were too low on the Broncos. They went 14-3 and reached the AFC Championship Game while the Explosiveness grade kept dragging down everything else they did well. The concern was fair. We gave it too much weight in the final read.
Washington Cannot Keep Asking Daniels to Clean Up Everything
Jayden Daniels already gives Washington the hardest thing to find in the NFL. He can beat a defense from the pocket, extend the play when it breaks down and punish them with his legs.
That makes the 75.4 Defense grade more important than squeezing another point out of the offense.
The Commanders went after the problem. Odafe Oweh gives Daronte Jones a real edge rusher and Rasul Douglas adds size and ball production to the secondary. There have been encouraging camp stretches too, especially when the front has been able to speed up the quarterback.
That is the part Washington still has to show. If this defense can move from a concern into the middle of the league, Daniels will not have to continue to carry this team on his back.
Washington is one point from the Playoff Contender range. The Commanders do not need a dominant defense to get there. They need one that can hold a lead, get off the field and give the offense a few extra possessions.
Washington’s ceiling still rises fastest if the defense finally carries some of the weight.
Minnesota Picked Its Quarterback. That Does Not Make the QB Question Go Away.
Kyler Murray won the job. Minnesota no longer has to spend the rest of August pretending the competition is still wide open.
Naming Murray the starter does not suddenly make a 76.4 QB Stability grade look safe.
Murray played five games last season because of a foot injury and J.J. McCarthy is now sitting behind him after losing the competition. The question is no longer who starts? It is whether Murray can stay on the field and give Kevin O’Connell steady quarterback play.
There is enough around Murray to make that work. Justin Jefferson can erase a bad read with one route and O’Connell has already shown he can build an offense around different quarterbacks. Minnesota does not need Murray to carry this team which happened far too often in Arizona.
So what would actually move Minnesota? Murray staying healthy and looking comfortable in O’Connell’s offense. If that happens, the biggest question on the roster stops being the thing holding the Vikings back.
How Is a Team With Achane and Willis 26th in Explosiveness?
De’Von Achane is one of the fastest backs in football. Malik Willis adds another runner defenses have to account for. Miami’s opening preseason drive went 93 yards for a touchdown and Willis completed 4 of 5 passes.
So why is Explosiveness sitting at 70.2?
Because having fast players is not the same as consistently creating explosive plays. Miami lost Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill from the receiver room and Bobby Slowik is rebuilding the offense around a very different quarterback. Achane can still rip a game open but the Dolphins need another player to scare a defense.
Miami is only 0.8 points from the In the Playoff Mix range. If Willis starts creating big plays outside the structure and the new receiver group gives him another way to flip the field, this offense gets a lot more interesting.
Cleveland Has an 84.2 Defense and Still Sits No. 30
That should tell you where the problem is.
Cleveland has enough defense to make life miserable for good teams and this is not the 30th-best collection of talent in football. The Browns are No. 30 because nobody has made the quarterback job feel safe.
Deshaun Watson’s first preseason game back was fine. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 126 yards and lost a fumble. Shedeur Sanders had an uneven opener of his own. The job still does not feel settled though.
The Browns should keep the competition going until somebody takes the job. Naming a starter just to end the battle does nothing for a 67.0 QB Stability grade.
Moving above 72 would still leave Cleveland with work to do but it would get the Browns out of PFM’s bottom outlook tier. With this defense, competent quarterback play is enough to raise the floor.
What Could Change Before Week 1
A preseason final score is not changing a PFM rating by itself. Neither is one touchdown drive or one ugly quarter.
If August gives us real answers there, then the tiers should move.
See where all 32 teams stand before Week 1.
View the Latest PFM NFL Rankings →PFM ratings referenced in this article were re-checked August 19, 2026. NFL preseason, injury and roster context was re-checked August 19, 2026.
Sources Reviewed for Current NFL Context
- Denver Broncos: Jaylen Waddle and the offense’s explosiveness
- Washington Commanders: Odafe Oweh and Rasul Douglas camp work
- Reuters: Vikings name Kyler Murray starting quarterback
- Reuters: Dolphins preseason opener and Malik Willis’ first drive
- Reuters: Browns preseason opener and Deshaun Watson return
Leave a comment