How many games will the Kansas City Chiefs win this year?
By: Adam Hulse (@AdamHulseSports)
According to the Draft Kings Sports Book, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected to win the most games in the 2021 NFL season. Their line is set at 12.5 wins with the over being a -125 betting favorite, which is clearly the highest of any team in the league. This should come as no surprise at all, as the Chiefs have been the best and most consistent team over the last three consecutive since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback.
In the past three years, the Chiefs appeared in the AFC Championship game in all three seasons, won two of them, and won a Super Bowl. They had a regular-season record of 12-4 in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons followed by a dominant 14-2 record in the 2020 season. Since Andy Reid took over as the head coach of the team, they have made the playoffs in seven out of eight seasons including the last six years consecutively.
The Chiefs are returning the large majority of their roster and coaching staff for the 2021 NFL season so there is really no reason at all to believe that they won’t once again be one of the very best teams in the entire league. It’s also important to remember that this upcoming regular season has 17 total games for the first time NFL history, so the Chiefs will have an extra game to exceed that high 12.5 projected win total. Additionally, they are ranked a modest 11th in terms of strength of schedule for the upcoming season and will likely be the point spread favorite in all 17 of their games. All things considered, here is what the Chiefs record could look like at the end of the regular season.
The AFC West, on paper, is projected to be one of the best divisions in the 2021 NFL season. All four teams have realistic expectations of competing for a playoff spot and none of them will be an easy game for any opponent on their schedule. Just like every season, the Chiefs will play two games each against the Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver Broncos. All three of these teams are filled with talented young players and have high hopes of being teams on the rise. Last season, the Chiefs had only two losses both came against divisional opponents but one of them was a game that Mahomes did not play. It’s more than reasonable to believe that the Chiefs will once again win at least four of their six division games and more than likely will win at least five of them.
Other AFC Games
The other six AFC opponents that the Chiefs will face this year are the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, and the entire AFC North division. This is the most difficult grouping of games on their schedule considering five of these six teams made the playoffs last season, with the much improved Cincinnati Bengals being the only one that did not. Still, it would be very surprised if the Chiefs did not win a minimum of four of these six games because they will more than likely be favored in all of them. If they were to be an underdog in any of them, it might be when they travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens for Sunday Night Football.
The Chiefs will face off against five teams from the NFC conference this season including the Green Bay Packers and the entire East division. The NFC East is the worst projected division in the NFL so the Chiefs will almost definitely win at least three of these four games but will more than likely sweep them. The Packers are a difficult opponent but the game will be played in Kansas City and the Chiefs will be the favorite to come out victorious. It would not be at all surprising if the Chiefs win all five of their NFC games and would be disappointing if they didn’t win at least four of them.
Based on the projections and analysis of each of their groupings of games it looks like the Chiefs are once again in line for a successful season. Even if they stumble, it appears that their floor is right about 12 wins with their ceiling being a perfect 17 wins considering what the probable betting odds will be for each game. That would put their most likely win total for the 2021 NFL season to be either 14 or 15 games. If looking for value, taking the over on their 12.5 total win line for the season feels like a really safe bet as long as they avoid major injuries. In particular, it’s hard to imagine any way they go under that number as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy.