5 NFL Contenders With One Red Flag PFM Can’t Ignore

Buffalo is easy to buy. Josh Allen can cover up a lot, DJ Moore gives him another proven weapon and James Cook can punish teams that spend all afternoon worrying about the quarterback. PFM has the Bills as the No. 1 offense for a reason.

For right now, the new coaching staff is the weakness. Joe Brady is moving from offensive coordinator to head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. takes over the offense and Jim Leonhard gets the defense. PFM has Coaching Direction at 72.5, No. 27 in the league, because we are not ready to give a brand-new setup the benefit of the doubt before it handles a real game.

Maybe that looks too cautious by October. If Brady handles the game-management side of the job and Leonhard can get the defense off the field without putting too much stress on the secondary, this concern can disappear fast. Right now, though, the staff is why Buffalo sits No. 8 instead of closer to the top four. It is not Josh Allen.

With Cincinnati, there is not much mystery. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase can keep the Bengals in almost any game. The defense is the part that is hard to get past. PFM has it 29th at 73.0, and that is a tough weakness to hide for an entire season.

Shemar Stewart avoiding ligament damage was good news, but missing several weeks still matters for a front that already needs more dependable pressure. Newly acquired Dexter Lawrence will no doubt stablize the defensive line but someone else needs to step up. Cincinnati also gets one of the easier schedules in PFM, so there is a real path to beating the No. 16 ranking. The defense does not need to become great. It just cannot stay near the bottom of the league and keep forcing Burrow to win every game in the 30s.

Kansas City is where PFM is taking its biggest swing. The Chiefs went 6-11 and missed the playoffs in 2025. We do not get to pretend that did not happen just because Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have fixed problems before.

At the same time, we are not ready to treat 2025 like the new normal. PFM still has Kansas City’s roster fourth, the defense eighth and Coaching Direction first. That is why the Chiefs are No. 3 even with a Recent Performance grade of 75.6, No. 20 in the league.

If Kansas City comes out flat again, this ranking is going to look too aggressive. That is the risk. PFM is betting that last season was the bad year, not the start of a real decline.

Baltimore is probably the one people will argue with the most. The Ravens are No. 7 in the national consensus, and it is easy to see why. Lamar Jackson is still Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry keeps the run game dangerous and Trey Hendrickson gives the defense another proven pass rusher. PFM still has Baltimore down at No. 15.

The reason is we are not giving the new staff John Harbaugh’s track record. Jesse Minter is the head coach now, Declan Doyle is running the offense and Anthony Weaver has the defense. PFM has Coaching Direction at 71.3, No. 31, because that is a lot of change around a team that should be trying to win right now.

Minter may end up being excellent. The fourth-easiest schedule also gives Baltimore some room to settle in. But until we see the offense keep its rhythm with Jackson and the defense stay organized under the new structure, No. 15 feels more honest than pretending the transition is already solved.

San Francisco is different because this red flag does not have to stop the 49ers from winning in 2026. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are still the core of an offense Kyle Shanahan knows how to use. PFM has the roster sixth in the league, and this is still a team built to win now.

The concern is how much room is left if another important player goes down. Ricky Pearsall is already out for the season with a PCL injury, and bringing Deebo Samuel back helps right now but also puts even more weight back on the veteran core. That is why Franchise Direction is only 75.5, No. 17, despite San Francisco sitting No. 5 overall.

This is not PFM saying the 49ers are about to fall apart. It is saying the cushion is thinner than it used to be. Another major injury or a real drop-off from one of the veteran stars carrying the offense could change the way this team looks very quickly.