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The defense has an edge rusher who can win without sending extra bodies in Carl Granderson. The offense has two targets who can separate at different levels in Chris Olave and Travis Etienne, but the line has to create clean downs for a young quarterback. The offense does not have enough big-play production to recover when protection breaks down.
See how the PFM category ratings shape New Orleans.
The Saints are trying to win with a multiple-front defense. Carl Granderson gives the defense a player it can build around.
Big-play production is the swing factor. More chunk plays would change the ceiling.
Carl Granderson and the edge group give the Saints a slightly firmer defensive base. The 9.0-point edge matters while Tyler Shough and an unsettled line try to turn downfield talent into a dependable offense.
The offense does not create enough sudden yardage at 32nd in explosiveness. Chris Olave and Travis Etienne have to turn more touches into field-flipping plays.
The Saints win by running efficiently, using motion to create clean throws for Shough and letting the pass rush protect a lead.
The Saints are most exposed in shootouts or obvious passing situations where Shough has to survive repeated pressure. Those games put a spotlight on offensive-line stability around a young quarterback.
New Orleans ranks No. 31 in schedule difficulty, with an average opponent PFM Score of 77.5 and one game against a current top-10 team. The toughest three-game run comes in Weeks 11, 12, 13 against Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers; the next 5 opponents average 79.2.
Toughest remaining opponent: Detroit Lions at 86.8 PFM.
These are the two closest on-field builds in the PFM ratings. The similarities matter, but so do the differences.
The Browns are the closest match because both teams lean on coaching to turn the pieces into a complete plan. The Saints lean on a multiple-front defense, while the Browns lean on a front-driven defense. The Browns can lean more heavily on the defense.
The Raiders are another close match because both teams trust the defense to keep the game under control. The Saints get there through a multiple-front defense; the Raiders are built around a wide-zone and play-action offense. Quarterback is where the Raiders create the separation.
Coming into the draft Tyson had plenty of doubters due to his injury history. The injury risk will always be there but Tyson just has "it". You can see it in his game tape. An explosive receiver ready to blossom.
Tampa Bay is still the most proven NFC South obstacle. A motion-based plan gives New Orleans enough to stay in the race. The remaining problem is offensive-line stability around a young quarterback.
New Orleans is 1–0 in the Super Bowl, winning Super Bowl XLIV in 2010.
