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Bijan Robinson and Jessie Bates III give Atlanta real building blocks on both sides of the ball. The Falcons remain No. 22 because Tua Tagovailoa’s health and a pass rush that does not finish enough plays make the weekly floor difficult to trust. Kevin Stefanski has to make the offense easier without asking the defense to survive long stretches.
Atlanta's rating took a step back after Jalon Walker tore his ACL and James Pearce Jr. was suspended for eight games, weakening the Falcons' pass rush. The addition of Za'Darius Smith softened the loss.
Bijan Robinson is supposed to control Atlanta's early downs and create the play-action windows for whichever quarterback wins the job. Jessie Bates III anchors a split-safety defense that still needs more finish from the pass rush.
Atlanta cannot build one weekly offense while Tua Tagovailoa's competition keeps changing with health and availability. Kevin Stefanski also needs the pass rush to finish drives so Bijan Robinson is not starting every possession from behind.
Stefanski owns the 20th-ranked coaching grade while Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. give Atlanta two very different paths. The offense needs a clear answer before the competition starts shaping every week.
Tua Tagovailoa can make the offense work off Bijan Robinson, but the 24th-ranked setup remains fragile when protection or durability becomes the story.
Atlanta has one of the league’s more favorable schedules at No. 25, with opponents averaging 78.7. Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions still give the schedule a real test, but 3 games against current top-10 teams keep the full road from looking as heavy as most.
Toughest remaining opponent: 
Kansas City Chiefs at 87.2 PFM.
Jalon Walker will miss the 2026 season after tearing his ACL in Tuesday's practice.
Atlanta planned to use Walker as a movable edge defender who could rush, set the edge and handle selected off-ball work, so this removes an important part of Jeff Ulbrich's front before the season begins. The Falcons still have veteran options, but none replaces Walker’s full role. This will likely lower Atlanta's PFM score in the next Tuesday rankings update.
Shared profile: Defense and Roster Strength.
Atlanta gets pressure without heavy blitzing from coverage and the defensive front, while Tampa Bay uses coverage and the defensive front to disguise pressure by changing fronts. Defensive Rating and Roster Strength line up because the front has help behind it and the lineup can survive when the preferred matchup disappears. The clear separation is QB Stability, where Tampa Bay has the steadier answer on difficult downs.
Where they separate: QB Stability. Buccaneers hold the stronger current rating.
Tampa Bay remains the NFC South favorite because Baker Mayfield gives it the clearest answer at quarterback. Atlanta can change that order only if Bijan Robinson controls early downs and Jessie Bates III gets help from a pass rush that actually finishes drives.
Atlanta has reached 2 Super Bowls and is still chasing its first win.
