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Atlanta finally looked like the offense it was built to be on Monday night. Bijan Robinson ran for more than 140 yards and two touchdowns, Brian Robinson added three more rushing scores and Michael Penix Jr. improved to 2-0 since returning. That 45-point eruption does not erase the uneven start, but it gives PFM a much clearer reason to buy the Falcons when the backfield is controlling the game instead of asking Penix to create everything himself.
Atlanta's rating improved after a 45-24 Week 4 win, led by gains in Recent Performance and Offense Strength.
Atlanta is a Bijan Robinson offense first. The Falcons want the run game dictating fronts so Michael Penix Jr. can attack off play action instead of carrying the game from the pocket. Week 4 was the clearest version yet, with Bijan and Brian Robinson combining for five rushing touchdowns and Penix playing from a script the defense could not take away.
Penix has to keep the offense on schedule without asking Robinson to rescue every early down. Atlanta needs protection and play-action timing to give the new starter defined throws before the pass rush can turn the game into long yardage.
Pick the winner.
Atlanta sits near the middle of the league at No. 11 in remaining road strength, with opponents averaging 80.2. Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers create the toughest stretch, but 4 games against current top-10 teams keep the schedule from belonging at either extreme.
Toughest remaining opponent: 
Kansas City Chiefs at 91.3 PFM.
Tampa Bay remains the most proven obstacle in the NFC South. Atlanta can stay in the race by controlling early downs with Robinson, creating defined play-action throws and keeping the quarterback out of long-yardage situations. The remaining problem is quarterback health and a pass rush that still has to prove it can finish plays.
See the current Atlanta Falcons depth chart across offense, defense and special teams.
Jake Matthews remains the left tackle and Jawaan Taylor starts on the right, but Atlanta needs a succession plan at a premium position. Adding a young tackle would protect Michael Penix Jr. and reduce dependence on veteran answers.
Atlanta has A.J. Terrell, but the current starting corner opposite the top spot is Mike Hughes with C.J. Henderson also in the mix. Another outside corner would raise the coverage floor behind an improving front.
Atlanta has invested in Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., but veteran Za'Darius Smith still carries an important edge role. Another young rusher would keep the pressure plan from depending on one development path.
4,927 F-S value
R1 No. 17 · R2 No. 48 · R3 No. 79 · R4 No. 116 · R5 No. 179 · …
Atlanta has reached 2 Super Bowls and is still chasing its first win.
