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Bijan Robinson and Jessie Bates III give Atlanta real building blocks on both sides of the ball. The Falcons remain No. 22 because Tua Tagovailoa’s health and a pass rush that does not finish enough plays make the weekly floor difficult to trust. Kevin Stefanski has to make the offense easier without asking the defense to survive long stretches.
Atlanta starts the regular season with a 76.4 PFM Team Score and the No. 22 spot in PFM’s NFL rankings. Movement will appear after the first published weekly ratings update.
Bijan Robinson is supposed to control Atlanta's early downs and create the play-action windows for whichever quarterback wins the job. Jessie Bates III anchors a split-safety defense that still needs more finish from the pass rush.
Atlanta needs the quarterback competition to produce one answer it can trust, with Tua Tagovailoa currently in the mix. The larger concern is quarterback health and a pass rush that still has to prove it can finish plays.
Pick the winner.
Atlanta has one of the league’s more favorable schedules at No. 23, with opponents averaging 79.0. Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions still give the schedule a real test, but 3 games against current top-10 teams keep the full road from looking as heavy as most.
Toughest remaining opponent: 
Kansas City Chiefs at 87.8 PFM.
Atlanta acquired defensive tackle Gervon Dexter from Chicago for Clark Phillips III and a fifth-round pick.
Dexter has 33 starts and 13.5 sacks across his first three seasons, giving the Falcons another proven interior defender rather than a developmental depth piece. This move is a clear change to Atlanta's defensive front and roster construction. PFM will review Defense Rating and Roster Strength before deciding whether the move is large enough to affect Team Score.
Shared profile: Coaching Direction and Roster Strength.
Atlanta gets early-down control through the offensive line, while Tampa Bay gets downfield pressure from the offensive line. The connection in Roster Strength and Coaching Direction is the freedom to change personnel or approach without hollowing out the rest of the lineup. Tampa Bay separates in QB Stability through a more dependable answer when the offense falls behind schedule.
Where they separate: QB Stability. Buccaneers hold the stronger current rating.
Tampa Bay remains the NFC South favorite because Baker Mayfield gives it the clearest answer at quarterback. Atlanta can change that order only if Bijan Robinson controls early downs and Jessie Bates III gets help from a pass rush that actually finishes drives.
Atlanta has reached 2 Super Bowls and is still chasing its first win.
