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Tampa Bay asks Baker Mayfield to attack downfield off aggressive play action. Todd Bowles answers with a blitz-heavy defense that can create negative plays but also places stress on the coverage.
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Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka give Tampa Bay enough top-end talent to keep the offense aggressive. The Buccaneers rank No. 20 because replacing Mike Evans’ reliable production leaves a real test, while coverage busts still expose the defense. Todd Bowles has a team with a clear identity, but the depth behind the starters is not strong enough to hide both problems.
Tampa Bay starts the regular season with a 78.6 PFM Team Score and the No. 20 spot in PFM’s NFL rankings. Movement will appear after the first published weekly ratings update.
Tampa Bay asks Baker Mayfield to attack downfield off aggressive play action. Todd Bowles answers with a blitz-heavy defense that can create negative plays but also places stress on the coverage.
Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield Jr have to turn the defense’s best snaps into finished drives and punts. The pressure starts with replacing Mike Evans’ reliable production and limiting coverage breakdowns.
AwayTB0-0
HomeCIN0-0Pick the winner.
Tampa Bay has one of the league’s more favorable remaining roads at No. 26, with opponents averaging 78.6. Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions still give the schedule a real test, but 3 games against current top-10 teams keep the full road from looking as heavy as most.



Toughest remaining opponent:
Los Angeles Rams at 90.2 PFM.
Tampa Bay is releasing Jake Browning and moving forward with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels as Baker Mayfield's backup.
This does not affect the Buccaneers' offensive outlook today, but it materially changes the contingency behind Mayfield. Daniels' preseason earned him the job, yet the lack of regular-season NFL experience increases the uncertainty if Tampa Bay needs its QB2 to step in.
By Justin Fuhr

Shared profile: Offense and Roster Strength.
Tampa Bay builds downfield pressure around the offensive line; Jacksonville builds matchup leverage around the offensive line. Offensive Rating and Roster Strength line up because each offense has enough support around its primary creator to keep the call sheet open. Coaching is the main separator, with the coaching staff giving Jacksonville more continuity from the opening script to the counterpunch.
Where they separate: Coaching Direction. Jaguars hold the stronger current rating.
Carolina is rising, Atlanta still has a quarterback question and New Orleans is rebuilding around Tyler Shough. Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles keep Tampa Bay in front, but coverage busts and the loss of Mike Evans' reliable production could erase that stability.
Tampa Bay owns 2 Super Bowl titles from 2 trips, with the latest coming in Super Bowl LV in 2021.