Deebo Samuel Could Take a Big Leap in 2021
By: Jesse Moeller
This article is for 3 WRs from the legendary 2019 class that have yet to fully breakout. What is considered a breakout? A WR breakout is when they finish in the top 24 in points end of the year. You are considered to have broken out. This removes the names of A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson
The incoming rookie class is bringing in some heavy hitters to the NFL in 2021. Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, Rashod Bateman, Jaylen Waddle, Rondale Moore are just a few incoming rookies that will knock these veterans WR down the dynasty rankings. Let’s break down the 3 third year WR you should be investing in.
AKA the YAC Gawd!
No one in the NFL is better in YAC (Yards after the Catch) than Deebo Samuel. He has prototypical running back size at 5’11 214 lbs, which shows when he is on the field. Deebo is truly a unicorn in the NFL and the 49ers deploy him as such. No receiver in the NFL is asked to consistently do what Deebo does.
Deebo ended the season with 33 receptions for 391 yards on 44 targets in 7 games this year. Extrapolated for a full season, we would be looking at 75 receptions for 893 yards on 100 targets. A much more impressive end of year total. This next statistic blew my mind. Deebo’s Yards before catch on the entire season were -7! How did he end up with 391 total yards you ask? YAC baby! Breaking it down, Deebo averaged 12.06 Yards After each reception. If Deebo played 16 games, he would’ve led the league with 893 Yards After the Catch.
Deebo’s role in the 49ers’ offense is 100% secure. He only had 116 Air Yards for the entire season, while Brandon Aiyuk had 876 Air Yards this year. That shows the different role each receiver has in the offense going forward. Deebo only had 2 deep target during the year, Deebo was 16th in the league with 0.49 fantasy points per route run. When Deebo touches the ball, good things happen for the 49ers.
Deebo’s value is discounted for two reasons in dynasty. Injury concerns, and being attached to a run-first offense. Take advantage of the discount and pay a 2021 late 1st/early 2nd round pick to acquire a player who is only 25 years old.
If you still are unsure about Deebo, here is a PFF stat for you.
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown
Let us dive into what makes Hollywood a player to target in dynasty. His overall numbers were disappointing compared to expectations coming into the year. He finished with 58 receptions for 769 yards on 100 targets. While these numbers may not be anything to get excited about, the underlying numbers certainly are. Brown had 100% route participation in 2020. Meaning he was on the field for every single Ravens pass play, which was #1 in the league. A target share of 25.2%, good for the 12th in the league. Hollywood had a RedZone target share of 18.0% highly impressive for a WR his size. Air yards share of 37.2% was #8 in the league.
Doing all this with Lamar Jackson having a worse season across the board. Lamar’s Passing Yards, Attempts, completion %, TD’s, Yards Per Attempt, Yards Per Completion all went down in 2020. Hollywood was one of two players to receive over 50 targets this year. The other was Mark Andrews, who had 88. The next highest was Willie Snead with 48.
Baltimore desperately needs another receiving option to take the pressure off of Hollywood. Bringing in one of the big name free agent Wide Receivers like Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, or a Rashad Bateman, Ja’Marr Chase type rookie would do wonders to this offense. Truly allowing Hollywood to thrive as the big play weapon to take the top off of the defense. At the moment Hollywood is worth approximately an early-mid 2021 2nd round pick in dynasty. A price I would happily pay to acquire him in dynasty.
Lastly, we get to a personal favorite of mine. You will not be able to find someone as talented as Campbell for the price in dynasty. It is all related to injury concerns with Campbell, as he has missed 71.8% of games the last 2 seasons. I’ve pinned a thread from one of the best dynasty accounts in the business @RayGQue who wrote a thread on Campbell coming out of Ohio State.
In the one game he played in 2020 before the MCL injury wiped out his season, Parris had 6 receptions for 71 yards on 9 targets. He was a focal point of the passing attack coming off of an injury-plagued 2019 rookie season. Campbell is one of the many young weapons on the Colts going into 2021. His measurables speak for themself as Campbell has all the tools to be an explosive playmaker in the league.
His closest comp according to Player Profiler is Santana Moss. It checks out, as Campbell has a speed score, burst score, and 40 yard dash time above the 97th percentile. For those of you not familiar with Santana Moss, go look up his highlights on Youtube. Moss is a forgotten big-play threat who had over 10,000 receiving yards in his career, along with 7 seasons of 100+ targets. Moss gives you an idea of the type of player Campbell can be.
Campbell is currently worth an early-mid 3rd round rookie pick in dynasty. A price I would pay every time if Campbell stays healthy will be worth much more.
I hope you enjoyed this article. I’m available to discuss dynasty football on twitter @JMoeller05 anytime