49ers win/loss ceiling in 2021

By: Corey Hietpas

After making an appearance in the 2019 Super Bowl, the San Francisco 49ers had extremely bad luck with injuries in 2020. By week 9, Jimmy Garoppolo, Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, and a few other less notable players wound up on IR. Surprisingly, the 49ers were still able to win 6 games, with 4 of those coming in the first 8 weeks of the season. It’s very fair to say that they would have had a much better season with better injury luck, but we’ll never know just how good this team could have been in 2020. Instead, we can assume that the 49ers will have much better luck with injuries in 2021, and we can look forward to this season and speculate how good they may be this year. Below, I’ve done just that, and you can find what I think to be the Win/Loss floor and ceiling for this 2021 49ers squad. Oh, don’t forget there is an added 17th game going forward, so records are going to look weird for a bit.

Worst Case Scenario

Week 1: W at Lions

Week 2: W at Eagles

Week 3: L vs Packers (with Rodgers)

Week 4: L vs Seahawks

Week 5: L at Cardinals

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: L vs Colts

Week 8: L at Bears

Week 9: L vs Cardinals

Week 10: L vs Rams

Week 11: W at Jaguars

Week 12: W vs Vikings

Week 13: L at Seahawks

Week 14: W at Bengals

Week 15: W vs Falcons

Week 16: L at Titans

Week 17: W vs Texans

Week 18: L at Rams

For me, the worst-case scenario for the 49ers is about on par with how they performed in 2020 as I have them finishing at 7-10. Even if the 49ers have poor injury luck again, it’s likely that they are able to defeat the lowly Lions, Eagles, Jaguars, Vikings, Bengals, Falcons, and Texans. That doesn’t need much explanation, those teams are not in good shape, and the 49ers are well-coached. Now, for the non-conference losses. The Packers with Aaron Rodgers are one of the best teams in football, the Colts are a very good playoff-caliber team and this assumes Carson Wentz can return to form, the Bears at home would be a tough beat and Justin Fields will likely be starting by week 8, and the Titans are a solid and well-rounded team that would be tough to beat in Tennessee. For the conference losses, the NFC West is a very tough division full of playoff teams, and there’s a scenario where the 49ers go 0-4 against the Seahawks and Rams. 

Best Case Scenario

Week 1: W at Lions

Week 2: W at Eagles

Week 3: W vs Packers (No Rodgers)

Week 4: W vs Seahawks

Week 5: L at Cardinals

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: W vs Colts

Week 8: W at Bears

Week 9: W vs Cardinals

Week 10: W vs Rams

Week 11: W at Jaguars

Week 12: W vs Vikings

Week 13: L at Seahawks

Week 14: W at Bengals

Week 15: W vs Falcons

Week 16: L at Titans

Week 17: W vs Texans

Week 18: L at Rams

In a best-case scenario, I have the 49ers finishing with a 13-4 record. Even in a best-case scenario, I believe that the 49ers would only split the season series with the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals. This division is so good that it has the insane possibility of 4 playoff teams. The only other loss I have is at the Titans for the same reason stated above. Some notable changes here are wins against the Packers, Colts, and Bears. This scenario assumes that Aaron Rodgers is not playing for the Packers, Carson Wentz is still not good, and the Bears’ QB situation is too much to overcome for them.

The 49ers have an argument for having a top-3 roster in the NFL. Considering the fact that there is no way they have as poor of injury luck as they did in 2020, I believe they will enjoy a lot of success throughout the 2021 season. I would give a much higher chance of them going 13-4 than 7-10. I would be extremely surprised if they don’t make the playoffs.

Leave a Reply

Proudly powered by WordPress | Theme: Baskerville 2 by Anders Noren.

Up ↑