Allen Robinson Is a SELL
What a whirlwind Free Agency has been. With the majority of the dominos fallen, it’s time to discuss how to take advantage of the real NFL deals in our dynasty leagues. Here are 5 players I think you should be shopping in your dynasty league.
Tevin Coleman ”“ RB, New York Jets
As of right now, it seems Tevin Coleman is the running back to roster for the Jets. BUT I do not see him holding onto the role. Tevin signed a very small one year 2 million dollar contract with $800,000 of it in incentives. This is a very team-friendly contract that I believe the Jets did to give them flexibility in the draft. I sincerely think the Jets starting running back for 2021 is not on the team yet. Coleman is also beginning the twilight of his career and not even Kyle Shanahan could get much out of him. In 2020, he averaged an embarrassing 1.9 yards per carry while Jeff Wilson averaged 4.8 yards and Raheem Mostert averaged 5.0 yards behind the same offensive line. This is a sell-for-what-you-can-get. Take a 2021 3rd round rookie pick or better.
Chase Edmonds ”“ RB, Arizona Cardinals
Chase was the biggest beneficiary of addition by subtraction this offseason with Kenyan Drake signing with the Las Vegas Raiders. As of right now, Edmonds is the lead back in Arizona and had some sort of endorsement from Kliff Kingsbury. However, what I took from Kliff’s statement was he said Chase COULD be a lead back. I believe they will bring in either a 1st and 2nd down back or a complete back to compliment the team as they seem to be making a Super Bowl push with their signings. Chase has shown he cannot handle a lead back role due to his efficiency dipping on a full workload. In the one game that they gave Edmonds the full workload, his yards per carry dropped from 4.6 to 2.8 and he only had 70 rushing yards in the game on 25 carries. Edmonds has just shown he thrives in the 3rd down and as a change-of-pace back. Aim to take advantage of the hype and get an early 2021 2nd rookie pick or better.
Myles Gaskin ”“ RB, Miami Dolphins
So far this offseason it has seemed every major running back that was in free agency has been tied to the Dolphins, but ultimately ended up signing up somewhere else. Gaskin has been dodging bullets left and right but it’s inevitable that his luck runs out. Now Gaskin had a great 2020 and won many of us fantasy championships with his Week 16 performance. For that, I and many others are eternally grateful. BUT Dynasty Fantasy Football is a fickle game. Gaskin finished RB13 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.4 points, which is why he still would be a premium handcuff when the Dolphins add a new running back. So, don’t sell him for pennies on the dollar but definitely capitalize on his previous season. Myles Gaskin was a 7th round pick that has worked out enough but the team has low investment on him and his days are numbered. Aim for a mid 2021 2nd rookie pick or better.
Allen Robinson ”“ WR, Chicago Bears
This one hurts. I am one of the biggest Allen Robinson truthers. He is QB proof and almost no QB he could have worked with could downgrade him for me. Well notice I said almost. It seems Chicago is gung-ho on using Andy Dalton as their starting quarterback in 2021. I have seen many others say “Dalton is the best Quarterback ARob has had throwing him the ball.” Well, maybe prime Andy Dalton would’ve been. The current Red Rifle is more like a Red BB gun. In 2020 with weapons like Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, and Michael Gallup, Dak Prescott was averaging 371 passing yards per game and 8.4 yards per attempt. With the same weapons, Dalton averaged under 197 yards passing per game and had the lowest yards per attempt of his career at 5.4. For those of you who think Dalton is an upgrade from Trubisky, you are wrong. In their past 35 games, Trubisky has more passing yards and touchdowns, with less interceptions, than Dalton. I do think Allen Robinson will be fine, but I believe this takes him out of a locked and loaded Top 10 wide receiver and into the WR 12-15 range. Arob also turns 28 this year and will not be free from his current contract until next year to pursue a different quarterback. By then, the age cliff will be looming. Get your top dollar value now if your league mates believe Dalton is the “best” Robinson has ever worked with. Aim for a 2021 mid 1st with a 2022 1st or 2021 early 2nd or better.
Kenny Golladay ”“ WR, New York Giants
The biggest payday went to this man. 4 years 72 million with 40 million guaranteed. Kenny G is now heading to the Giants to be their alpha and the fantasy community hype has gotten out of control. As you’ve probably learned by now, I love to sell the hype. Things to remember: (1) Kenny Golladay is coming off an injury-riddled 2020 season which was cut short due to a hip injury; and (2) Daniel Jones in every way is a downgrade from Matthew Stafford. In 2020, Daniel Jones and the Giants passed the ball the 26th most. Comparing that to the Lions in 2019, in which the Lions passed the 16th most, that is a significant downgrade in terms of just attempts. A realistic finish for Golladay would be a Top End to Mid WR2 in fantasy for 2021. However, there are a lot of people having new toy syndrome and the allure of “upside” after seeing what Diggs was able to do last year after changing teams. This is a sell high moment if you can find a league mate that values him as a WR1. Aim for 2021 mid 1st with a 2022 1st or 2021 2nd rookie pick or better.
Any questions on this or anything Dynasty, DM me on Twitter @KidFlashFF.