Who is the WR1 in dynasty?

Is Davante Adams the best WR in dynasty?

By: Zach Kurt

Who is the best wide receiver in dynasty? I bet when I ask this question quite a few names pop into your head. Profiles like A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, and many more are in the running but who is the top dog? I was very curious about who the Fantasy community thought was the dynasty WR1. I didn’t just poll their number one WR, I polled their top five dynasty WRs and 90% of them had A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams. Other WRs included in the top 5 were: Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, D.K. Metcalf, Ceedee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, Terry McLaurin, Michael Thomas.

However, I am going to eliminate the list that I just shared. Not because they aren’t able to be the dynasty WR1 but the community seems to have narrowed it down to these 4 WRs. Each of these WRs were Hill, Adams, AJB, and Jefferson, who all received 20% of the top vote in the poll. It is fair to say that each one of these WRs has the talent, opportunity, and situations to be THE WR1 but there is only one. So who will it be? Let’s break down each player in terms of production, age, injury history, and future outlook.

First on the podium, is Tyreek hill. Hill is in the best offense and will be until he retires. He is 27 years old and is truly a beast at the position, as he has elite yards per catch, and has found the endzone 35 times the last 3 years. Plus he has a small rushing upside that none of these other guys have. Tyreek has a brief injury history and also has had some trouble with the law. Patrick Mahomes is throwing him the ball and that immediately puts him at the top of my list because he has the best QB of the group for the foreseeable future.

Next, Adams is a target machine and a red zone monster. If he was 25 I don’t think that there is any question about who the WR1 is. However, he is 28 and has an injury history and that is something that is taken into consideration when making this decision. Last season he had 149 targets in 14 games. Did I mention he is a red zone monster? 18 Tds in 14 games, that’s more than a TD a game. According to Draftsharks.com Adams has a 94% of an injury in 2021. The older he gets the more likely to increase that rate and at 94% that’s tough to rely on. When Adams is on the field he is the best fantasy WR in football. There is a chance that he and Rodgers don’t play together next year and that could have serious implications on his fantasy value.

Next is AJB stud WR who has a higher YPC than Tyreek. He is 24 years old and a solid red-zone option and has a great QB but not an elite one. Entering his third year his ceiling is very high. However, his targets don’t come very close to Hill and Adams. Brown has averaged less than 100 targets in his first two years. With Julio coming into the team it took the opportunity he had to be the Clear #1 on this team away. Tennessee also doesn’t throw the ball a lot and that makes AJB’s target share high but his volume of targets is low when comparing him to the other guys. He has had a few minor knee injuries over his career but nothing that has set him back more than a few weeks.

Finally, we have Justin Jefferson a breakout guy in year one 125 targets 1400 yards but only 7 TDs. JJeff is 22 years old and super safe because of his yardage floor. He is going to get the targets and do great things with them as we saw last year. A stipulation with Jefferson is that he has only done it one year, and could face regression. His TD’s seem to be a cause for concern only getting 7. Adam Theilen is a red zone monster but will slowly fade in the next few years. JJeff is the #1 target on his team and has room to grow! Can JJeff be better than he was last year? Absolutely he can, but the unknown is rough with him. Now as we look back at all 4 receivers all of them have some concerns and they all have incredible upside.

Have you figured out who the Dynasty WR1 should be? Drumroll, please! It’s not Adams, It’s not AJB……. It’s Justin Jefferson, with Tyreek a close second. Justin Jefferson in his rookie year with no training camp or preseason was a top 6 WR and he has room to grow and improve. He will be a top 5 WR in the NFL for the next 8-10 years. Tyreek and Adams will probably be better than JJeff over the next 2-3 years. However, JJeff will be right behind him, his competition for targets is slowing down and most WR’s show better results in year 2. Jefferson has longevity, he is elite, and has the best floor without an injury history.

Thank you for sticking with me to figure out who the Dynasty Wr1 Should be. While I still love all the WRs mentioned in the article and all of them have the potential to be the top dog, Jefferson is the clear answer for me. I hope this research helped inform your decision as well. As I always say, send trade offers because Dynasty Never Rests!

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