What is Brian Robinson’s Dynasty Outlook in 2023 and Beyond?
There was a time when we didn’t know if Brian Robinson Jr. would be able to play football again. He was a victim of a carjacking attempt in Washington D.C. and was shot multiple times in the leg. In a miraculous turn of events, Robinson was able to return to football and make his NFL debut in week 5. A true testament to his physical and mental strength.
When the Washington Commanders drafted Brian Robinson in the 3rd round of the 2022 NFL Draft it was a bit of a surprise. Antonio Gibson was already on the roster and developing nicely yet the Commanders were looking for a true bruiser/red zone running back. The rookie out of Alabama showed he could handle a full-time role but would need to adjust in the NFL to complement Gibson. In the end, Robinson showed flashes but didn’t produce enough to be a top-tier running back.
Brian Robinson finished the season with 108.2 FP (Half PPR). He had 3 total touchdowns on the season, 2 rushing and 1 receiving. On top of that, he had 205 rushing attempts which was good for #19 amongst running backs. Keep in mind, that is with missing 4 games along with sharing the load with Gibson. The Commanders looked to give him the majority of the workload but he didn’t produce as much as we liked. Let’s now dive deeper into his 2022 season and forecast his value.
2022
As you can expect it was an emotional day when Brian Robinson made his debut in week 5. Robinson was eased into the game plan and rightfully so, he just had surgery on his leg and was getting used to the pro game. The following week against the Chicago Bears, Robinson scored his first NFL touchdown. We also saw his volume go up as he finished with 60 yards on 17 carries.
In week 12 against the Atlanta Falcons, Robinson had his best output of the season. He rushed for 105 yards on 18 carries including his first receiving touchdown. It was exactly what owners were looking for as Robinson finished in the top 5 with 19.5 fantasy points. One thing is for certain, Robinson did not lack touches, especially in the red zone. He just didn’t hit paydirt as much as we would’ve liked.
In the chart below were his projected vs actual fantasy points in Half PPR for 2022. As you can see, he exceeded his projections 5 times but the projections were mostly in the single digits.
2023
As we look ahead to the upcoming season and start to project Brian Robinson’s value there are some key factors to consider. Washington fired offensive coordinator Scott Turner and brought in Eric Bieniemy. This has me excited for the Commanders offense as a whole but we don’t know yet how all the pieces will fit. Head Coach Ron Rivera has had an old-school mentality and prefers to control the clock with the run game. If Bieniemy has his way, we will see exotic packages and a more up tempo offense. It will be fascinating to watch how this plays out.
Brian Robinson’s Dynasty Value
Where do I rank Brian Robinson’s dynasty value right now? He is currently RB29 in my recently updated dynasty football rankings. This is +6 in terms of the FantasyPros ECR. It’s also right around his current position on KeepTradeCut which is RB35. There is a lot of hype surrounding Antonio Gibson in the new-look Washington offense. Although Gibson has the better upside, I still have him below Robinson. You can expect more rushing touchdowns in year 2 for Robinson and at this current value, he is a BUY for me.
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