What is Travis Etienne’s Fantasy Outlook in 2023 and Beyond?
After missing all of his rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Travis Etienne was poised to break out in his second year. The former Clemson Tiger had a familiar face at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson was now running the offense. When the dust settled, Travis Etienne finished the fantasy year as RB17 (Half PPR) and totaled 187.6 FP. It wasn’t a down year by any means yet we all expected more from Etienne. Before we look ahead at Etienne’s fantasy outlook let’s first recap his 2022-2023 season.
2022
Travis Etienne started his 2022 campaign slowly. It wasn’t that big of a surprise since the RB was coming back from a pretty serious injury. He finished with single-digit fantasy points during his first 4 games. Etienne started to pick up momentum during the week 5 matchup against the Houston Texans. Etienne finished the day with 71 yards on the ground and an additional 43 yards receiving. After this game he started a streak of 4 straight double-digit fantasy point games including 3 top 10 finishes. This was the type of production fantasy owners were banking on.
After the bye week Etienne’s production slowed once again and this is the type of inconsistency that we don’t want to see in a top-tier running back. Thankfully Travis Etienne woke up again in his second matchup with the Texans. He used his vision to hit the hole, break the tackle and burst to the end zone for a 62-yard touchdown.
2023
As we start to project Travis Etienne’s value in 2023 and beyond it’s important to look at some key statistics. One of those is red zone stats among running backs. Etienne finished 30th in this metric behind the likes of Samaje Perine and Devin Singletary. The chances were there for Etienne as he had 59.4% of attempts in the red zone, he just couldn’t convert those into more points.
The Jacksonville Jaguars also drafted Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft. One could envision that the Jaguars are going to use him in the red zone given the stats I pointed out above. If that happens, Etienne’s value will take a hit.
Travis Etienne’s Fantasy Outlook
Travis Etienne is certainly a hot topic going into the upcoming season. He could be a league winner or he could end up costing you a chance at the playoffs. There seems to be no middle ground here. Currently, I have him slated at #21 overall in my 2023 top 100 fantasy rankings and I may drop him down some more. The inconsistency has me more worried about his overall value going forward.
Let’s take a quick look at where Etienne stands today in terms of ADP and FantasyPros ECR.
As you can see his ADP has stayed steady at 25 but his ECR is starting to drop. This goes to show that others are also second guessing his value going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if his ECR continues to drop into the 20 range. As we move into training camp and the NFL preseason I will be keeping an eye on how Tank Bigsby is utilized. It will certainly have an impact on Etienne’s overall value. At this point, I have Travis Etienne on the tier 3 range of running backs for the 2023-2024 season.
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