Week 4 rewarded teams that found another way to win and punished teams whose biggest weakness showed up again. Chicago controlled a game without Caleb Williams, Atlanta finally looked like the offense it was built to be and Cleveland moved to 3-1. Philadelphia’s offense disappeared after halftime, Detroit gave up 30-plus again and New Orleans got run over by a division rival.
PFM’s Latest Ranking Changes page tracks every ratings update. This article focuses on the biggest risers and fallers from the October 6 update by PFM Team Score, while also showing where each team moved in the 1-through-32 rankings.
The two measurements split again. Chicago made the biggest move up the board, climbing four spots to No. 6, while Atlanta stayed No. 22 despite the second-largest Team Score gain. Philadelphia took the largest hit to both its score and ranking position among this week’s six teams.
Week 5 snapshot: These moves compare PFM’s September 29 Week 4 update with the October 6 Week 5 update. The full board remains available in the 2026 PFM NFL Team Rankings.
| Team | Team Score | Change | PFM Rank | Rank Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chicago Bears |
83.2 → 84.4 | Up 1.24 | No. 10 → No. 6 | Up 4 |
 Atlanta Falcons |
75.8 → 76.9 | Up 1.10 | No. 22 → No. 22 | No change |
 Cleveland Browns |
72.1 → 73.1 | Up 1.01 | No. 31 → No. 29 | Up 2 |
 Philadelphia Eagles |
84.7 → 81.2 | Down 3.51 | No. 7 → No. 12 | Down 5 |
 Detroit Lions |
85.7 → 83.0 | Down 2.66 | No. 6 → No. 8 | Down 2 |
 New Orleans Saints |
74.8 → 73.0 | Down 1.81 | No. 25 → No. 30 | Down 5 |
One useful distinction: Chicago’s 1.24-point gain produced a four-spot jump because the middle of the board is tight. Atlanta gained nearly as much and did not move at all. Philadelphia and New Orleans both fell five ranking spots, but the Eagles took almost twice the Team Score hit.
1. Chicago Is Starting to Look Like More Than a Quarterback Story
Biggest riser · +1.24 · No. 10 to No. 6
Chicago has now won two straight games without Caleb Williams, and Week 4 looked less like surviving an injury than controlling a football game. Tyson Bagent threw for 268 yards in his first start since 2023, Kyle Monangai ran 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns, and the Bears never needed the offense to turn into a backyard scramble.
The bigger number was 492-157. That was Chicago’s edge in total yards. The Bears also won first downs 34-7 and held the ball for 42:45. The Jets went 0-for-7 on third down. One backup-quarterback win can be a fluke. Two very different wins with Keenum and Bagent starts to say something about Ben Johnson’s structure and a defense that is giving the offense room to play on schedule.
PFM moved Chicago to No. 6, but Williams still matters to the ceiling. His hamstring absence remains baked into QB Stability. What has changed is the floor. The Bears are proving they can win a game without asking the quarterback to be the entire offense.
2. This Is the Falcons Offense They Were Supposed to Have
Riser · +1.10 · No. 22
Atlanta finally stopped making Michael Penix Jr. carry the whole idea of the offense. Bijan Robinson ripped off a 59-yard touchdown on the Falcons’ third play in New Orleans, finished with 145 rushing yards and two scores, and Brian Robinson Jr. added three more touchdowns on the ground.
Penix only needed 20 throws. He completed 15 of them for 223 yards and a touchdown while Atlanta piled up 420 total yards and five rushing scores. That is a much cleaner formula for this roster than asking Penix to create every answer from the pocket. Get the backs downhill, force the defense to react, then let the quarterback throw from a favorable picture.
The Falcons stayed No. 22 because one 45-point night does not erase an uneven opening month. The score gain matters anyway. PFM’s Explosiveness jumped more than seven points, and the offense finally gave a reason to believe the pieces can fit together instead of merely looking good on paper.
3. The Browns Keep Winning the Same Kind of Game
Riser · +1.01 · No. 31 to No. 29
Cleveland is 3-1 after three straight wins, and the Browns are starting to build a repeatable identity. The defense sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and forced two turnovers. Then, after Pittsburgh tied the game late, Deshaun Watson put together another fourth-quarter drive and Andre Szmyt hit a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left.
Watson finished 24 of 33 for 268 yards. That is not a reason to suddenly treat Cleveland’s quarterback room like a strength, and PFM still has QB Stability near the bottom of the league. It is enough to change how the Browns have to be viewed, though. The defense no longer needs to drag the offense through every close game by itself.
Moving from No. 31 to No. 29 is not a victory lap. It is PFM recognizing that a team winning the same late-game formula three weeks in a row cannot keep being treated like the team that opened the season at the bottom of the board.
4. Philadelphia’s Offense Has a Real Problem Now
Biggest faller · -3.51 · No. 7 to No. 12
Philadelphia led the Rams 20-10 at halftime and did not score again. The Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down, finished with 172 total yards and watched Los Angeles score two touchdowns in the final four minutes to steal the game.
Saquon Barkley leaving with a hamstring injury made the afternoon harder, but it cannot explain all of it. PFM’s Offense Strength dropped from 83.9 to 72.9, an 11-point fall, because the passing game still did not produce enough answers when the Rams squeezed the run game and forced Jalen Hurts to win on schedule.
The defense gave Philadelphia chances. It intercepted Matthew Stafford twice and protected the lead for most of the afternoon. The offense could not finish the job. That is why this was the week’s biggest PFM drop, not just a one-score loss that happened to go the wrong way.
5. Detroit Can Score. It Cannot Keep Living Like This on Defense.
Faller · -2.66 · No. 6 to No. 8
Detroit put up 452 yards in Carolina and still walked out with a loss. That should tell you where the problem is. Bryce Young threw for 329 yards, Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, and the Panthers scored 32.
This is now the third time in four games Detroit has allowed at least 30 points. The offense is good enough to keep the Lions in almost any game, but that is becoming the trap. Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and the rest of the offense keep having to play as if every empty possession might be the one that loses the game.
PFM still has Detroit in the top eight because the offense, roster and coaching baseline remain strong. The defense is sitting at 70.8, and Week 4 gave that weakness another full game of evidence. At some point, scoring 26 cannot have to feel like the minimum just to stay alive.
6. The Saints Got Run Over. Plain and Simple.
Faller · -1.81 · No. 25 to No. 30
There is no need to overcomplicate this one. Atlanta ran for 205 yards and five touchdowns. Bijan Robinson scored from 59 yards on the Falcons’ third play, and New Orleans spent the rest of the night trying to recover from a game that had already tilted toward Atlanta’s backfield.
Tyler Shough threw for 286 yards and Chris Olave had eight catches for 116, but New Orleans was forced into chase mode because the defense could not get the Falcons off schedule. PFM dropped Defense Strength from 75.5 to 68.3, the sharpest component decline behind the Saints’ five-spot fall.
Shough can give this offense some life. He cannot make a 45-point defensive day survivable. New Orleans is No. 30 because the run defense turned a division game into exactly the kind of script a young quarterback should not have to play.
What Week 4 Actually Changed for PFM
Chicago, Atlanta and Cleveland all gave PFM something more useful than a final score. The Bears showed their structure can survive another quarterback change. The Falcons finally made the run game the center of the offense. The Browns won another close game with the defense creating pressure and Watson doing enough late.
The fallers repeated problems that are harder to dismiss. Philadelphia could not manufacture offense once the Rams took away its easy answers. Detroit’s offense produced 452 yards and still could not cover for the defense. New Orleans let a division rival dictate the game on the ground from the opening drive.
Four games is enough for the regular-season evidence to start carrying real weight. PFM is not throwing out roster quality or quarterback history every Tuesday, but recurring problems stop being small-sample noise when they keep deciding games.
See every Week 5 change, not just the six biggest moves.
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